Zvi Mowshowitz and Holden Karnofsy have a bet about Covid. Reported at Karnofsky's substack.
- If at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.
- Otherwise, Zvi pays me $60.
Zvi clearly thinks this is over fast. Karnofsky almost agrees, but decides to remain unpersuaded largely because we have had false dawns before. Reading the details was fun.
My estimate is that we infect about 6% of the over-18 population per week. 78% percent of our population is over 18, so 13 weeks. That's about 11 weeks to go, done with this wave by spring break.
Then we go endemic, and Covid becomes something southern tier states get twice in the summer and northern tier states get twice in the winter, because neutralizing antibodies seem to start falling off after 2 months.
I agree with WSJ, and Zvi's gonna be $60 poorer in 2023.
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