Zvi Mowshowitz and Holden Karnofsy have a bet about Covid. Reported at Karnofsky's substack.
- If at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.
- Otherwise, Zvi pays me $60.
Zvi clearly thinks this is over fast. Karnofsky almost agrees, but decides to remain unpersuaded largely because we have had false dawns before. Reading the details was fun.