Saturday, March 28, 2020

Counties

I wonder if differing states of lockdown could be used for different population densities.  Coos County in NH, the nearly empty one that is the top third of the state, has 0 cases of C19. It borders areas of Vermont, Maine, and Quebec that also have no cases.  Perhaps churches, restaurants, retail, and bars could open there safely, with appropriate warnings.  Cheshire and Sullivan Counties have only two cases each. They border areas of Vermont with somewhat higher concentrations, but still low*.  That may be a touch more problematic, as the former also borders Western Massachusetts, and it might encourage a higher-risk population to enter a lower-risk area. Still, it's a pretty good drive from Springfield to Keene.

I have not heard that governments are even considering such arrangements, though I have read a few people on the internet (especially Chicago Boyz) suggesting that different areas of risk should be treated differently.  Nothing within two hours of NYC, I wouldn't think. Has anyone seen any discussion of this that goes beyond the simple question-asking and superficial considering I've done here?

*The knuckleheaded first case from NH who was told to self-isolate but went to a party in Vermont attended by lots of people at the Dartmouth business school affected Windsor County. But most of VT's cases are in Burlington, predictably.

4 comments:

Fredrick said...

"I wonder if differing states of lockdown could be used for different population densities. "
That would require using uncommon sense, or 'risk management' science. Trump has essentially said the same thing, we'll see Monday if he caves to the politicians pushing the plauge panic or not.

Unknown said...

That sounds like some of what I heard on the radio of Cuomo's "NY Forward" plan - “The smartest way forward is a modified public health strategy that dovetails and complements a get-back-to-work strategy”

I'd been feeling smug in my rural area until a few days ago, until the 1st case was reported. Now the county health department is saying that the new additional cases are definitely community transmission. The day by day increase in number of confirmed cases is in the part of the pearl/gompertz curve where it looks exponential.

We're getting no word on the severity of the cases, but hear informally that the admins of the hospitals who had cleverly closed their ICUs and halved the number of beds in order to qualify for the higher Medicare reimbursement provided to hospitals in the "Critical Access Hospital Program" are now scrambling to see if they can afford to bring them back.

So while I'm aware that the risk is lower in rural areas, the number of critical-care hospital beds and the number of ventilators are also lower per-capita than in the cities.

Unknown said...

That sounds like some of what I heard on the radio of Cuomo's "NY Forward" plan - “The smartest way forward is a modified public health strategy that dovetails and complements a get-back-to-work strategy”

I'd been feeling smug in my rural area until a few days ago, until the 1st case was reported. Now the county health department is saying that the new additional cases are definitely community transmission. The day by day increase in number of confirmed cases is in the part of the pearl/gompertz curve where it looks exponential.

We're getting no word on the severity of the cases, but hear informally that the admins of the hospitals who had cleverly closed their ICUs and halved the number of beds in order to qualify for the higher Medicare reimbursement provided to hospitals in the "Critical Access Hospital Program" are now scrambling to see if they can afford to bring them back.

So while I'm aware that the risk is lower in rural areas, the number of critical-care hospital beds and the number of ventilators are also lower per-capita than in the cities.

GraniteDad said...

The issue as well is that it can’t be countywide restrictions- there are many counties in the United States that do not have a hospital, and have to cross county lines to get to one. Which likely means moving towards greater rates of infection as they go, but it’s better than dying in your house I suppose.