I listened to a podcast this morning in which a scientist - one who believes he is speaking within his field but actually isn't - predicts that a coronavirus second wave with be ramping up shortly, by the end of July, which will be 5-10 times worse than the first run, and will result in the deaths of up to 3 million Americans. He claims that this is because we didn't shut down early enough in March, and that Trump and Fox News have systematically misled us, and Trump should be tried for crimes against humanity, Nurenberg style. He was still going, but I turned it off, so I don't know the rest of it. Maybe he eventually got around to mentioning China, but somehow I doubt it.
That could be, I suppose. My reading of the numbers has been more encouraging. The deaths per day have continued to slowly decline. The places that have sudden crises are spread apart, reducing the possibility of overload. We do have more equipment. We know more about what is very dangerous and not-very-dangerous. Yet I know nothing about epidemics and second waves, so it's best not to breathe a sigh of relief on the basis of my assessment. A second wave might be coming, and it might be terrible.
What occurred to me while shaking my head during the rest of my commute is that just about everything has been predicted at this point, so many people are going to be right just by accident even if they are jerks, and some good and well-meaning people will be wrong. As always, really. There has been a lot of crowing about how the experts were wrong and good free Americans will never listen to them again, but of course the experts they are choosing to reject are as carefully selected as the other experts they choose to believe. It has all been a very discouraging display of confirmation bias all around.