Monday, September 05, 2022

Horse Race Politics

I have said for years that I know nothing about this, enough so that I believe I have become proud of my ignorance, as if some knowledge is beneath me - never a good state. Yet what I do know is not always reliable.  There is regression to the mean, so that if Joe Biden is at historically low levels of popularity, it is likely that he regresses upward for no reason other than people not wanting to kick him quite so hard. Yet it is an open question as to when this regression actually starts happening.  In terms of the binary of elected/not elected, it matters whether this adjustment occurs before or after November.

We remain as closely divided these last forty years as we have ever been, and I fear it is because we are drawn to the division itself, to feeling that our opinion matters, and therefore needing to be on a precipice. Does fundraising matter?  It must, mustn't it? Does the general economy matter? Doesn't it always?  Are gas prices and the unemployment rate they two main figures to look at, as they always are?  

I don't know.


Mike Guenther said...

As someone famous once said..."It's the economy, stupid."

( You are a much smarter person than I am and I in no way mean to impugn your intelligence.)

Seriously wallet is a lot emptier now than it was two years ago. It's so serious, the administration is giving us folks on SSN a 10 or 11% raise on our monthly benefit this next year.

Boxty said...

Obama got reelected despite a bad economy. Having the media and every cultural institution on your side helps a lot. I don't recall if Romney had any plan for America beyond vague platitudes.