I have said for years that I know nothing about this, enough so that I believe I have become proud of my ignorance, as if some knowledge is beneath me - never a good state. Yet what I do know is not always reliable. There is regression to the mean, so that if Joe Biden is at historically low levels of popularity, it is likely that he regresses upward for no reason other than people not wanting to kick him quite so hard. Yet it is an open question as to when this regression actually starts happening. In terms of the binary of elected/not elected, it matters whether this adjustment occurs before or after November.
We remain as closely divided these last forty years as we have ever been, and I fear it is because we are drawn to the division itself, to feeling that our opinion matters, and therefore needing to be on a precipice. Does fundraising matter? It must, mustn't it? Does the general economy matter? Doesn't it always? Are gas prices and the unemployment rate they two main figures to look at, as they always are?
I don't know.