Well I was certainly surprised. The Dunning-Kruger Effect may not be real, but merely an artefact of what happens when one measures two things that look more related than they really are. I posted about it frequently a decade ago when I was writing my lengthy "May We Believe Our Thoughts?" series. That there are arrogant, overconfident people the new findings do not dispute, but they cast enormous doubt on the idea that the effect in humans is linear according to actual knowledge. From the article:
- The Dunning-Kruger effect was originally described in 1999 as the observation that people who are terrible at a particular task think they are much better than they are, while people who are very good at it tend to underestimate their competence
- The Dunning-Kruger effect was never about “dumb people not knowing they are dumb” or about “ignorant people being very arrogant and confident in their lack of knowledge.”
- Because the effect can be seen in random, computer-generated data, it may not be a real flaw in our thinking and thus may not really exist.