Monday, August 02, 2021

Excess Mortality, A Few States

Two months ago Massachusetts was just under 11,500 and it's currently at 11,362, so it has added nothing.. TN is now almost 7k deaths up (18,103) and AZ is 11k ahead at 22,235. Vax rates (for 1st dose) stand at 72% for MA, 53% for AZ and 44% for TN. 

- MA 1623 excess deaths/million
- TN 2586 excess deaths/million
- AZ 3176 excess deaths/million 
These states are focused on because the person sending them to me continues to be annoyed at the reporting by TN and AZ (states of similar size to MA), which make it look by their Worldometers and CDC numbers that these three states are about even.  They aren't. You can describe the inaccuracy how you will, but to me it's just that Tennessee and Arizona are lying, to make their covid numbers look smaller.  It is worth noting when one is tempted to think that there are vast swaths of American territory where SARS-2 is being overcounted. The anecdotes put up on some sites about counties or hospitals here and there that are revealed (gasp) to be overcounting by 25% or whatever are a drop in the bucket. The strong trend is states trying to look good by undercounting.

NH is now up to 1151 excess deaths/million, FYI.(Mentioned because I am in NH, which has very good numbers, particularly considering that the most densely populated area is essentially a suburb of Boston.)

Some big states:
-CA 2176 excess deaths/million w/65% receiving first dose of vaccine
-FL 2245 excess deaths/million w/58% receiving first dose of vaccine
-TX 2475 excess deaths/million w/52% receiving first dose of vaccine 
-NY 3111 excess deaths/million w/63% receiving first dose of vaccine 
Diseases don't do what we tell them to.  
Also, to quash a growing rumor, there are reports that only 50% of the employees at NIH have been vaccinated, the dark implication being "You see, they know this is risky and they aren't getting it." That number is how many the agency has record of, and possibly the percentage that they themselves administered to employees.  People get their vaccinations at their MD's, at their local pharmacy, at mass programs that states put on to encourage them.  When the NIH calls those papers in to get a clear idea what they've got, that percentage will certainly not go down.  It will likely go up quite a bit.


Deevs said...

Your first paragraph wasn't clear to me at first. I thought when you wrote TN and AZ were "up" so many deaths, you meant they had that many excess deaths in the past two months. Now I see that's just a comparison to MA as it currently stands. I'm assuming these are excess deaths since the start of the pandemic, correct? Could you link me the source for the data?

Assistant Village Idiot said...

I believe it is pulled painfully by hand from the CDC website. I didn't do it myself, but I will check. But yes, the numbers are total for the entire course of the pandemic.

Deevs said...

Gotcha. I just assumed it wasn't CDC data based on the mention of CDC numbers in the beginning of the second paragraph. Thanks!

Assistant Village Idiot said...

Yes, both Covid and excess mortality numbers are reported, and the states have different rules about that. One has to dig in - and I usually am content to let others do that.

Zachriel said...

Here’s a map showing excess mortality across the U.S.

The associated article has a discussion about the causes of the undercount in Kentucky.

HMS Defiant said...

I'm not all that partisan but I have learned to distrust any numbers coming out of any blue state, district, bureaucracy. Thank you NY, NYC, Philly, and the CDC.