The poop is being thrown freely about whether there is a third spike of C19 occurring. Worldwide, the answer is an unequivocal yes. In the US the answer is varied. A half-dozen states have a large increase in number of cases, another half-dozen troubling increases, and a few have mod increases in death, some dramatic: LA, MS, TN, FL, NV.
A lot of states have a new moderate increase in number of cases, including some states which have had very low rates until recently, such a HI, VT, AK. There is some trend for the warmer states to be seeing more cases, but not all, and Washington and Oregon are suddenly worse. More death anywhere is partiularly alarming, because hospitals and clinics have a lot of experience treating Covid now, and we should not be seeing much.
Bsking suggests that we should switch to hospitalisations as the metric. At-home cases are more of an inconvenience than a danger at this point, but improved treatment reduces the number of deaths over the rate that occurred in early 2020.This makes sense and I may start looking at things from that perspective instead.
The overall is that yes, we have a third spike in the US, but it is mitigated by vaccinations, low base rate in some states, improved treatment, and the avoidance distancing we do automatically now, even when we say there are no precautions. The southeast and south central states worry me, as do the previously closed states now open for tourism. The rest, including even NYC and other northern cities, do not seem to be exploding. The international spike worries me because it will affect things here.
International update out of Israel. The graph shows the rate of infecting others is much higher for the unvaccinated, while the vaccinated are mostly spreading to household members only. One of the comments did immediately ask how much age is a factor in that, as the children, with wider outside contacts are mostly unvaccinated, and the elderly, with mostly in-home contacts are vaccinated. It's a good question and probably bends the numbers a bit, but the trend is still very strong.