Sunday, August 15, 2021


Please note that bsking over at Graph Paper Diaries has a new post after a long hiatus. She had told me earlier in the week it was coming.  It contains solid information about excess mortality by state, slightly different than I have been reporting, because states are reporting with slightly diffferent rules.  Some are reporting excess deaths over their average from previous years, while others are reporting excess deaths over the upper bound of the 95% confidence level, which is a higher number (resulting in a lower number of reported excess deaths).  She has found a spot where the info is available in a much easier form than what she was working with before in here correspondence with me in a small group. Therefore, she expects to be updating, as it is not as onerous.

Secondly, I have added The Orthospere to the sidebar after learning it is where JMSmith publishes his stuff.  His comments here have been excellent.  I should remove one site from the sidebar because it has no updates since 2017, but it is my son's so I just won't.


bs king said...

Just to clarify - all states have both the above average numbers and the 95% CI numbers, but if one makes a top 10 list (like I did!) different states show up on each as the 95%CI is much larger for some states than others.

I can compare all 50 states across both metrics in a later post if that would be interesting, for now you just have the geomaps.

Assistant Village Idiot said...

Does worldometers have the same reporting metric for all states for its numbers? I thought some reported differently

Narr said...

Very interesting! Please keep it up.

bs king said...

Ah yes, Worldometer uses state reported COVID deaths. All states report those, but they have used different definitions throughout the pandemic for what constitutes a COVID death. What I focused on is excess mortality, which should not be influenced by state level definitions. All states report all deaths, regardless of how they categorize them.

The difference between COVID death reports and excess mortality could be undetected COVID deaths, or it could be other things (homicides, overdoses, lockdown exacerbated conditions), but I think it's important to highlight which states actually have a substantial amount of excess mortality before we start making those claims.