Israel used to do prisoner swaps where they'd turn over a hundred or more for a single Israeli prisoner. Subtext--one Israeli is worth a thousand of your guys.
I'd like to hope our negotiators were playing that game, but the Russians hold other Americans with better claim on our help, and I'm afraid our negotiators are neither particularly bright nor particularly interested in non-intersectional Americans. Or they just do what they're told by officials possessing those qualities.
The Israeli prisoner swaps were a disaster in the long run. They incentivized hostage-taking by the other side and helped to bring about several large-scale military operations that got a lot of people killed. In a democracy it's difficult for national leaders to be seen to abandon hostages from their side, even if it would be rational to do so.
I don't think our leaders are operating with much foresight. The Biden people probably saw ransoming Griner as nothing more than a cheap way to buy support from Democratic constituencies, and who cares what happens down the road. A bad precedent to be sure. One of many. At the same time our military is being excessively measured in avoiding forceful responses to probing attacks by the Iranians. This is the inverse of the problem posed by hostage-taking, and we are mishandling this situation as well.
3 comments:
This is very funny and illustrates America's priorities.
Israel used to do prisoner swaps where they'd turn over a hundred or more for a single Israeli prisoner. Subtext--one Israeli is worth a thousand of your guys.
I'd like to hope our negotiators were playing that game, but the Russians hold other Americans with better claim on our help, and I'm afraid our negotiators are neither particularly bright nor particularly interested in non-intersectional Americans. Or they just do what they're told by officials possessing those qualities.
The Israeli prisoner swaps were a disaster in the long run. They incentivized hostage-taking by the other side and helped to bring about several large-scale military operations that got a lot of people killed. In a democracy it's difficult for national leaders to be seen to abandon hostages from their side, even if it would be rational to do so.
I don't think our leaders are operating with much foresight. The Biden people probably saw ransoming Griner as nothing more than a cheap way to buy support from Democratic constituencies, and who cares what happens down the road. A bad precedent to be sure. One of many. At the same time our military is being excessively measured in avoiding forceful responses to probing attacks by the Iranians. This is the inverse of the problem posed by hostage-taking, and we are mishandling this situation as well.
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