Sunday, October 17, 2021
It looks like a 16% increase in deaths in 2020 over 2019. One possible counter to this is that many of these death are only slightly premature, as they were elderly or otherwised compromised folks who were going to kick off in a year or two anyway. Such things are hard to measure while they are happening, but if that's the case we should expect that 2021 is about the same as 2020, and when the pandemic is over - there are plenty of folks who will tell you the pandemic is over - we should see 2022 drop below 2019 in deaths. Because we cleared out a lot of the people who were just about to die anyway, right? Dropping only TO 2019 levels would not be evidence that there was no excess death and only the compromised succumbed. 2022 will have to drop significantly below 2019 to make that point. I strenuously doubt that will happen.
Posted by Assistant Village Idiot at 2:36 PM