Monday, August 31, 2009

Checks And Balances

Obama opponents have been legitimately worried about vote-manufacturing via ineligible voters. A few census estimates here, a few out-of-district busloads there, it all adds up. Not so much as to change the face of the universe, but perhaps enough to move a close election. Whether this actually results in many votes or changes any elections remains to be seen – and we may have some measurements coming out of the 2010 Congressional elections. But the next test will be more interesting. The presidential primaries (and caucuses) will be the next round of elections. Obama was skilled at dominating the caucuses with trained advocates on the ground in every location. He did less well with actual elections.

He will have to run against other Democrats first. Running against an incumbent of your own party may be political suicide, but if Obama’s numbers stay low, not running against him might be mass suicide for the Dems. I have admitted many times before that I am not good at the horse-race stuff of politics. Whether Obama would face more challenge from the far left in his party – fewer in number but more committed – or from a bluish dog, I can’t say. But if there is major chicanery, he’ll have to get it past his own party first.

Could be interesting.

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