From Lyman Stone, who has taken the article out from behind the paywall Completed Family Size Will Soon Plummet to Unprecedented Depths . We are below replacement and going lower in the next decade or two. There is a theory that it's not fewer children, but delayed fertility ending up with the same number of children. That doesn't turn out to be true.
Stone has pointed out elsewhere that this decline tracks with the decline in marriage. Married people have almost the same number of children as they did decades ago, and unmarried women have the same amount each. It's just that there are a lot more unmarried women now.
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