The Economist has estimates of excess deaths worldwide, with accompanying graphs. You will notice that Europe, Oceania, and North America were fairly accurate, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean. Africa's numbers bear little resemblance to reality, and Asia is just ridiculous as well. Their current estimate is 7-13M dead.
I am still worried about India, as their variant may be especially dangerous and their numbers are climbing rapidly. The US death numbers are creeping down but still between 500-1000 daily, even with large numbers of the vulnerable and high-contact people vaccinated.