When Roosevelt ran in 1944, many people knew he would not live out the term. They hid it from the electorate - because they were dishonest bastards - but there was some suspicion anyway. They knew that the Vice President had to be someone who could be trusted as president, which is why they sloughed off the serious communist sympathiser Wallace and went for Truman.
Biden has disappeared, and the worry is that he has growing dementia. That is not necessarily true. He has always put his foot in his mouth and made vague, stupid statements with an engaging smile and wonderful tones of voice. If you recall the Electric Monk from the Douglas Adams books, who could be programmed to believe anything with unswerving devotion, Biden is something of an Electric Politician, able to say whatever is required enthusiastically. So this might not be dementia at all, just Joe being Joe. He might get elected and finish his term.
Yet if it is, and he is going downhill, then those around him know it and are setting up Plan B, of who would be president after him. I don't mind parties having a Plan B. That's what a VP is at all times anyway. But unless Biden has a dramatic occurrence like a stroke, it won't be smooth and obvious. As he deterioriates, there will be those who don't want the Veep coming in, preferring their ability to move Joe from spot to spot. They will fight for him to remain with all the Washington tricks they have perfected over a lifetime, and some of them are very good. Yet the pro-Veep folks are also good and will do the same. Polls and counter-polls. Network plants putting forward the acceptable line, while another gives a different hint or rumor in the following hour.
It would be catastrophic for the country. Bad actors, domestic and foreign, would feast on the uncertainty, both in showy obvious ways and in invisible ones. Sometimes all it takes to keep a country going is to have someone who will make decisions, even bad ones. Edward II of England was so ineffectual that the government could not function. Feckless, to bring back a favorite old word. The people would live in uncertainty, and in such situations are likely to follow the Strong Horse, as bin Laden accurately (though infuriatingly) noted. The fantasy that people might have that Kamala Harris or Amy Klobuchar or whoever would make a good president will not play out cleanly, as it has with assassination. We won't move quickly from Point A to Point B.
We have had similar situations at least twice, at the end off Wilson's and Harding's terms, when they were in a bad way and others covered for them. But that was at least toward the end, where we might hope to hide the truth and outrun the demons before the new president came in. I don't know how much could be hidden now. Conservatives are irritated because they think covering up Biden's failings might cost them the election, and much of the media plays along. The real consequences could be far worse.
4 comments:
One impression I have gotten about Trump from watching what he's done over the past few years is that he listens to advice, appearances to the contrary. He also is not a spring chicken. If he were to deteriorate, similar considerations would apply--except perhaps that the "machinators" would not all be deeply embedded in the "deep state." The Veep supporters, perhaps; those hoping to guide Trump--maybe not so much.
Good to bring that up. I had not thought of it. We have been nominating old presidents this time. I fear we may have to learn the hard way not to do that.
In the 19th century, this was always a consideration that people accepted, but voters were wary of people who’s health was not great. A bigger risk today is mental decline in prominent people. There is no good way to deal with this but nominate younger candidates. Mental decline need not be as serious as dementia, but rather a mental situation where you believe you are still a younger person with full capacity, but cannot function that way. A classic case is Admiral Hyman Rickover who got special dispensation from congress to stay the head of nuclear technology in the Navy far past retirement age. He was still smart but fighting wars and issues 20 years old. Dr. Fauci looks a lot like Rickover physically and also in his behavior (not working well with others, lacking an organizational sense). A smart candidate would see this and make the choice of VP as younger and healthier an asset not a defect.
Part of the problem now for the political parties may be that many of the younger political prospects have digital trails containing compromising information from their younger and more irresponsible selves. Trump, Biden, Hillary et al are old enough (and perhaps, especially in Biden's and Trump's cases, non-techie enough) for their youthful indiscretions to have disappeared from view. This issue will disappear soon enough.
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