I wish I could locate a discussion a few years ago - it may have been at Volokh Conspiracy, but I'm not finding it - asserting that confidence won out over correctness in many leadership situations, and wondering if there were an ev psych component to this. It's entertaining to draw up leadership scenarios in the imagination and game out the results. How do we get to where the food/trading spot/home fires are? Being correct would seem to weigh heavily there. Yet uncertainty might keep the tribe from acting at all, or at least, quickly enough; thus correctness would not enjoy a 100-0 advantage. Just getting everyone started in some approximately accurate manner might be more valuable. What is our strategy for this hunt/raid/battle? Same thing, and certainty might be even more important. How shall this dispute among tribesmen be resolved? Folktales of many lands to the contrary, there isn't that much incentive to get this right, rather than just resolved. Sounding like one is right might be more important than actually being right.
That of course is only about the tribe's survival, a necessary but not sufficient condition of the survival of one's own genes. Yet similar risks and rewards occur within the tribe in competition for resources. In those cases as well, being persuasive rather than correct might be the better strategy. Persuasive, in this discussion, would include undermining or intimidating competitors, as well as inspiring confidence in the rest of the team.
BTW, the game board is different for women, and there is enormous variety, but I think the same correctness-confidence tradeoffs apply.
The equations may change a bit in the move to pastoral, then agricultural, then trade-and-industrial societies, but the uncomfortable reality remains. It may be a better strategy to be convincing than to be wise. In fact, that may be exactly what plays out in electoral politics. We put our trust in a particular place - a party, a few news sources, a general ideology (Keynes' long-dead-economist), a half-dozen friends - and get along with our day from there.
With all that as introduction, James has interesting thoughts on our news sources.
Postscript: yes, I think it applies to academic and political debate as well.