There have been fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic this year. There are none on the horizon. Six to ten hurricanes were predicted; there has been one. But because we are only halfway through the season, the NOAA assures us that we are still in the range of the predictions. I don't know enough about hurricane prediction to say they are wrong in that. I will say that it sounds wrong.
Weather varies.
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Looking at the numbers and simplifying them a bit you would expect 5 hurricanes in each half of the season to get to the upper estimate of 10 so a very quiet first half (1) plus a normally active second half (5) would get you to the lower estimate of 6 for the year. I sort of skimmed the article and it did seem to be an extended explanation there is no reason to assume a certain weather pattern won't change abruptly just because it has been in place for a while.
There is a low pressure system that has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
I find the NOAA hurricane page very helpful in hurricane season.
The latter half of September is statistically the busiest, most intense part of the season.
Allow me to take a moment to express my gratitude, after last year, for the lack of hurricanes this year.
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