Thursday, September 11, 2025

Illegal Immigration Comments

This is not a topic I know a great deal about. Because of working in mental health I have had more contact with refugees than most people, but I'm not sure that generalises.  I have immigrants in the family and know plenty of legal ones. I did just hear today that 98% of asylum requests are bogus.  Even if that is an exaggeration, it does change the picture for me.  I had always pictured that some large minority of asylum requests were real and an equivalent group was marginal but not entirely ineligible, while another 25%? 33%? 50%? were gaming the system.  I had never imagined numbers as high as 98%.  But it was Razhib, who likely knows more than I do.  As a Bayesian calculation, my current estimate for fraud moved higher, but not that high.

The quantitative change in illegal immigration became so large that it has created a qualitative change. Birthright citizenship and "anchor babies" was something you used to hear people mutter about, but nothing ever got done and no one was taking to the streets for it. Not all countries have birthright citizenship.  It tends to be mostly in the West. But as over 7 million came in under Biden, that's a lot of possible anchor babies.

As it is not possible to have hearings for 15 million people here without permission, the current strategies are designed to discourage people from coming here or not risk staying any longer. If they don't stay away or go home on their own there isn't going to be much we can do.  I suspect that is behind the drama of ICE raids and choosing people who would have thought themselves beyond being worried about anymore. They want self-deportation.

Small businesses, especially in service trades like restaurants or hotels, complain that they can't stay in business without hiring illegals.  They can't compete. If we emphasise that second sentence instead of the first one it makes sense.  Of course those industries could continue if they didn't have illegal immigrants.  They just can't compete with each other.  E-verification is apparently not that difficult, but it is opposed by small businesses - often Republican - as too difficult. 

1 comment:

Douglas2 said...

Nowhere in the instructions for the i9 form, where you can enter info in ink on a paper form or, if you have actually opened the form an an Adobe Acrobat program (not, necessarily, any other PDF reader; and CERTAINLY NOT a web-browser!) fill out the fields by typing into into the fields, does it tell you that
• there are secret space dot and dash formatting rules for every document-number type, which bear no relation to the presence or absence of spaces or dashes in the document number of the document in question.
• printing the part that the employee needs to fill out at a different time than the 2nd page that they employer needs to fill out will invalidate the e-verify, because they both have obscure barcodes that as a result won't match to each other.
• filling out the stuff you know and printing it out while you have access to the shared computer, and then adding the rest in pen, will also kick back an e-verify mismatch because the filled out stuff gets encoded in a barcode and E-Verify can only cope with fully pen-filled scans or fully field-entry scans of the form.
I'm pretty sure that our HR stopped doing e-verify because it required repeatedly calling people back in with their precious ID documents to cure 100% accurate and legitimate forms that wouldn't pass e-verify for reasons that would not be evident to anyone who had not previously had several hundred forms kicked back.