Just a thought. In the discussions about tech and innovation competition with China, it is often mentioned that their population is three times that of the US, and now that they are ramping up, more and more of them are going to be educated as well or even better than we are. But is this 3x really true in terms of talent, or even potential talent? China is getting some researchers in select fields from outside their country, including some Europeans and even Americans. But in general they don't import talent. The Anglosphere has a shared talent base with the US getting first pick in most cases, and Continental Europe, India, and even Japan are more likely to come here than go to China. That may change, and according to Razhib Khan already is changing, but isn't the 3x a little misleading?
5 comments:
Oh, it'll change, all right. It'll be a generation before Europe and the others trust us again. That'll put a dent in the talent sharing.
The Chinese population is also aging and will start falling. By the end of the century there are projected to be more Americans than Chinese nationals.
Amongst current 25-65-year-olds in China, isn't it only about 33% who have completed at least high school education, but in recent years it is 95% of each cohort who do with 60% going to university.
9 million births per year in China, 3.6 million per year in the USA. With higher average IQ and rates of educational attainment near parity, I think you are right:
It's not 3×, it's merely 2.5×
Earl, I don't think it will be that big a dent. Some, especially in any field where people have to be politically engaged. But a lot of scientists keep their opinions to themselves or even have few opinions. Journalists, artists, writers, social scientists will be anti-conservative in general and anti-Trump in particular. But those are things we have in abundance anyway. All I really know for the scientists is geneticists and related fields, but a lot of Europeans, South Asians, and Australians work here already.
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