Sunday, July 12, 2020
CoVid19 Projections
Bsking tells me CoVid19-Projections has been much more accurate than IMHE, and yesterday they put up their state-by-state projections from May to illustrate their accuracy. It holds with what we have seen pretty well, and I like people who are openly willing to be graded in order to get things right.
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Yeah, it's really refreshing to see someone concretely put up "here's what I said six weeks ago", and he compared himself directly to IHME. He particularly highlight FL, CA, TX and AZ and was closer on every one. He was almost exact for Florida and California, and ran a bit high for AZ and TX. He was over by 350 in AZ and 230 in TX, the IHME model was over by 2000 in AZ and under by 1100 in Texas: https://covid19-projections.com/about/#late-may-projections
I should note that his projections for some small states (<2 million people) like NH have been more prone to error than his projections for bigger ones. That's a problem for all models though...small states can have one bad nursing home impact their numbers for a week and make it appear there's an upward trend where their isn't.
Still, I've found it a pretty helpful site. It's also updated daily, so as the situation changes he updates the model pretty quickly.
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