Sunday, August 23, 2026

Fantasy Football Advice

Pick a basic ranking that you like.  Then when listening to other podcasts or reading other articles, raise the ones they are rating as hot ten spots - about one round. After about a month, you will have raised everyone ten spots. Hilbert's Paradox as applied to fantasy football.

I jest, but it actually makes some sense. Evaluators are looking at what will most likely happen if everything goes right. But everything goes right for only a limited number of people, in football and in life. If the quarterback who loves tight ends takes over after the third game, and if your TE's ACL heals properly, and if the new playcaller does what he did in Tampa Bay, then the TE12 will very likely become the TE4.

Men try very hard not to let their children think this way about life decisions, but every August demonstrate that they secretly hope the opposite. It's fair, really.  It's called fantasy for a reason. In this world your guy never gets injured but the other team loses key players. I once checked the win totals for NBA projections of the final standings and thought it was a mistake that the number of wins for the teams exceeded the number of losses by over 10%. But Upon Further Review, I saw this was sensible. We already know that our team is screwed if a star player goes out for the season.  That's not informative. We want to know how good the team could be if things go at least reasonably well.

Yes it's a terrible business strategy or military strategy. But it is the only worthwhile initial strategy for love. Reality can (and should) intrude later.

 



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