Spengler

David Goldman writes for the Asia Times, originally under the pseudonym Spengler (after Oswald Spengler, who wrote about the decline of the West).  His economic predictions have been unusually good. Steve Hsu interviewed him at Manifold podcast. As that is one of the podcasts that offers transcripts, that is available for those who prefer that medium.

He was originally focused mainly on classical music, and was all-but-dissertation in music theory at CUNY.  "Then, my first child was born and I noticed immediately that she wanted to eat almost every day." He began taking Wall Street jobs. He has been politically involved since the 80s and is not afraid to be radical, as one can see from both the Wiki and the interview. He refers to Republicans and Democrats as "Dumb and Dumber."

The question which has obsessed me for many years is why the West would develop the most inspiring and elevating high culture in the history of the human race. And then effectively abandon it. 

This interview includes some American economic observations, such as what he considers felonious market manipulation by huge players (Bank of America, where he had previously worked, for example) in the crash of 2008, but mainly focuses on the economics of China in competition with the US. It is not mere doomsaying, but it is alarming. He considers some sectors, such as EV's, to already be effectively lost. Tesla? Largely a Chinese manufacture, actually. BYD Auto has introduced the Seagull EV for about $11K, and Wuling (with GM) will be offering one at $9K later this year. They don't need the American and European markets for these, not at all. He also points out the uses of AI to solve lower-tech problems for poorer countries, giving the example of Bangladesh and the packaging of chili peppers, a key commodity for them.  A single bad pepper can spoil the whole bag, and losses of 15% are now reduced to near-zero because of AI. Of course they are going to buy this technology from China. 

Lots of topics covered in an hour. Another interesting bit.  He makes reference to predictions of his coming true more quickly or more slowly than he thought, and it occurred to me that in popular media, unfavorable reporting is likely to call those inaccurate, not just wrong about the speed.