Economists have predicted ten of the last two recessions, the saying goes. If you look around you will find this principle among teachers, preachers, and a hundred types of observers of culture.
“The human race, to which so many of my readers belong, has been playing at children's games from the beginning, and will probably do it till the end, which is a nuisance for the few people who grow up. And one of the games to which it is most attached is called 'Keep to-morrow dark,' and which is also named (by the rustics in Shropshire, I have no doubt) 'Cheat the Prophet.' The players listen very carefully and respectfully to all that the clever men have to say about what is to happen in the next generation. The players then wait until all the clever men are dead, and bury them nicely. They then go and do something else. That is all. For a race of simple tastes, however, it is great fun.” -- Three guesses who, and the first two don't count.
I'll predict a depression. The massive amount of money printing indulged in by the Fed since 2008, has skewed the finances of the world so badly, that a depression is the only way this is going to work out.
Watching the almost panicked reactions by market and investment types is very funny, "Inflation is peaking" but reinforces my long view.
Russia kneecapping the world, is just another brick in the wall of world wide failure, that is incoming.
Most predictions aren't accurate. A few individuals make accurate predictions on specific topics - this team will win the championship, this stock will outperform, etc. This type of more accurate prediction is not the type of prediction that we see in mass-media. Also, does anyone review previous predictions to see how they played out? Most media consumers don't care, i.e., most predictions are entertainment.
Invention of the interweb increased the number of folk gloomier and doomier, buy gold, silver, some country pulling all its gold out of banks, money-printing run amok, head for the hills, and etc. What's gonna happen will happen. Going out on a limb--Maybe 1% know how to survive, can survive, without modern things. That's on the high side.
@Jonathan: "Also, does anyone review previous predictions to see how they played out?" Scott Alexander keeps track of his predictions. He even assigns them probabilities.
For the later comments. The better side of the rationalist community used to do that regularly, and it wasa matter of "honor" something they seem to barely believe in but still adhere to (see CS Lewis and The Abolition of Man. (CWCID Korora - I am pleased I recognised yours immediately.)
I find it more interesting to consider the potential outcomes those in power refuse to consider, or believe to be so unlikely as to be impossible. Every prediction is formed by the predictor's understanding of the world.
For example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which kicked off a land war in Europe. I agree, it seems to me to make no sense for Russia to have invaded. And yet, it happened. Having happened, many other inconceivable events are in the process of unfolding, such as Europe turning to coal again, or Germany spending more on their national defense.
For some people, I think it's already a recession. Local food bank workers were talking last week that their weekly demand has risen 25%, from 120 bags to 160 bags. People are dropping part-time jobs because they can't afford the gas.
"it seems to me to make no sense for Russia to have invaded."
In 2014 Victoria Nuland boasted that the CIA had spent 5 billion dollars doing the coup in Ukraine. Ukraine in hostile hands, as it most definitely is, is an existential threat to Russia.
The event which caused the start of this conflict, was the impending attack of between 60 and 80 thousand Ukrainian troops, assembled to attack the Donbass. Putin struck first.
James, I believe there are groups that study so-called "black swan events." https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/black-swan-event/
I would place the invasion of Ukraine in such a category, even though many diplomats and governments study all sorts of hypothetical state actions. It reminds me of the assassination of Grand Duke Ferdinand.
The Germans are returning to heating with coal. We have no idea where this ends. It was inconceivable to Merkel's government, and the Greens, that Russia would use energy dependence for its own ends. And so, here we are.
Then again, there were others who were predicting just such a power play by the Russians. So it wasn't "inconceivable" in the sense that you would not expect your guinea pig to start reciting Rousseau. It was "inconceivable" in the sense of the theory that "democratic" countries that trade with each other would not go to war with each other. It was a huge bet placed in the face of European history.
Cranberry, I was hoping there were. I'd guess there's a bias towards refining a "China invades Taiwan scenario" over developing a "What if China invades Vietnam?"
I cut out the reason why: It's probably just as expensive to game out a "low probability" event as a "high probability" one, and you're more likely to get a payout.
I think of it as avoiding punishing losses. The financial crash of 2008 had a few big winners who bet against the market, and many, many losers. Likewise, Brexit was a total surprise for many people. It disrupted many trade relations.
In both cases, the eventual outcomes were not secrets. Financial papers ran many articles pointing out that the mortgage market was crazy before the crash of 2008. Many Brexit supporters ran editorials laying out the reasons for Brexit.
So they're not really "low probability" events. They're "we don't think of that outcome" events.
True, those examples were foreshadowed, and I'd be surprised if a number of establishment analysts hadn't tried to game out Brexit--though without advertising their results.
But there are plenty of "low probability/high impact" scenarios: a coup and civil war in Mexico, catastrophic earthquake in Taiwan, and so on.
Brexit has been a catastrophe. The entire country is melting down and there will very probably be a general strike soon. Labour is easily out polling the Conservatives now, and will probably be the next government, and then try to reunite with Europe. Assuming of course that the Israeli ringer, Labour leader Starmer is tossed before this.
The level of stupidity displayed is astounding and it was all to keep the brown people out. Racism in fact is the reason for Brexit. That it was economic suicide was put aside for more important concerns.
The icing on this wonderful cake includes brown people in high places completely backing this policy. Rishi and Priti Patel are both children of immigrants and are the strongest advocates of sending refugees to Rwanda.
It would hard to even make this up as a comedy, but it is the truth. ;)
James, I don't think an earthquake in Taiwan fits into the "inconceivable" box. Isn't it right on the "ring of fire?" And likewise, the conflicts with the cartels in Mexico could fit the definition of a civil war. https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/06/mexico-why-2022-could-be-brutal-year-in-the-drug-war-16055265/
What would I place into my definition of an "inconceivable" event? Well, I look at the reports of the energy shortages in Europe, and I can conceive of lots of things. For one, my husband reports his friends in Germany have no idea of the dimensions of the problem looming this winter. People do not freeze happily. So, the collapse of multiple European governments seems possible.
Other "inconceivables." The collapse of the 3 Gorges Dam. A catastrophic nuclear accident due to the Ukraine war. A Carrington event. https://www.gaia.com/article/carrington-event
I should explain the above. The UK privatized all kind of things rather badly and the Electrical system was part of this. So there are a variety of providers, using the same grid, and the various contracts signed by medium sized outfits using this power are causing these insane price fluctuations.
21 comments:
sometimes it works
“The human race, to which so many of my readers belong, has been playing at children's games from the beginning, and will probably do it till the end, which is a nuisance for the few people who grow up. And one of the games to which it is most attached is called 'Keep to-morrow dark,' and which is also named (by the rustics in Shropshire, I have no doubt) 'Cheat the Prophet.' The players listen very carefully and respectfully to all that the clever men have to say about what is to happen in the next generation. The players then wait until all the clever men are dead, and bury them nicely. They then go and do something else. That is all. For a race of simple tastes, however, it is great fun.” -- Three guesses who, and the first two don't count.
I'll predict a depression. The massive amount of money printing indulged in by the Fed since 2008, has skewed the finances of the world so badly, that a depression is the only way this is going to work out.
Watching the almost panicked reactions by market and investment types is very funny, "Inflation is peaking" but reinforces my long view.
Russia kneecapping the world, is just another brick in the wall of world wide failure, that is incoming.
I predict more surprises.
Most predictions aren't accurate. A few individuals make accurate predictions on specific topics - this team will win the championship, this stock will outperform, etc. This type of more accurate prediction is not the type of prediction that we see in mass-media. Also, does anyone review previous predictions to see how they played out? Most media consumers don't care, i.e., most predictions are entertainment.
Invention of the interweb increased the number of folk gloomier and doomier, buy gold, silver, some country pulling all its gold out of banks, money-printing run amok, head for the hills, and etc. What's gonna happen will happen. Going out on a limb--Maybe 1% know how to survive, can survive, without modern things. That's on the high side.
@Jonathan:
"Also, does anyone review previous predictions to see how they played out?"
Scott Alexander keeps track of his predictions. He even assigns them probabilities.
Scott Alexander is one of the exceptions who prove the rule. Check out CNBC etc.
@ James - thank you.
For the later comments. The better side of the rationalist community used to do that regularly, and it wasa matter of "honor" something they seem to barely believe in but still adhere to (see CS Lewis and The Abolition of Man. (CWCID Korora - I am pleased I recognised yours immediately.)
I have a hard enough time predicting the past, so I never bother with the future.
I find it more interesting to consider the potential outcomes those in power refuse to consider, or believe to be so unlikely as to be impossible. Every prediction is formed by the predictor's understanding of the world.
For example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which kicked off a land war in Europe. I agree, it seems to me to make no sense for Russia to have invaded. And yet, it happened. Having happened, many other inconceivable events are in the process of unfolding, such as Europe turning to coal again, or Germany spending more on their national defense.
For some people, I think it's already a recession. Local food bank workers were talking last week that their weekly demand has risen 25%, from 120 bags to 160 bags. People are dropping part-time jobs because they can't afford the gas.
Do we need a think tank to game out the "inconceivable" events?
"it seems to me to make no sense for Russia to have invaded."
In 2014 Victoria Nuland boasted that the CIA had spent 5 billion dollars doing the coup in Ukraine. Ukraine in hostile hands, as it most definitely is, is an existential threat to Russia.
The event which caused the start of this conflict, was the impending attack of between 60 and 80 thousand Ukrainian troops, assembled to attack the Donbass. Putin struck first.
James, I believe there are groups that study so-called "black swan events." https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/black-swan-event/
I would place the invasion of Ukraine in such a category, even though many diplomats and governments study all sorts of hypothetical state actions. It reminds me of the assassination of Grand Duke Ferdinand.
The Germans are returning to heating with coal. We have no idea where this ends. It was inconceivable to Merkel's government, and the Greens, that Russia would use energy dependence for its own ends. And so, here we are.
Then again, there were others who were predicting just such a power play by the Russians. So it wasn't "inconceivable" in the sense that you would not expect your guinea pig to start reciting Rousseau. It was "inconceivable" in the sense of the theory that "democratic" countries that trade with each other would not go to war with each other. It was a huge bet placed in the face of European history.
Cranberry, I was hoping there were. I'd guess there's a bias towards refining a "China invades Taiwan scenario" over developing a "What if China invades Vietnam?"
I cut out the reason why: It's probably just as expensive to game out a "low probability" event as a "high probability" one, and you're more likely to get a payout.
I think of it as avoiding punishing losses. The financial crash of 2008 had a few big winners who bet against the market, and many, many losers. Likewise, Brexit was a total surprise for many people. It disrupted many trade relations.
In both cases, the eventual outcomes were not secrets. Financial papers ran many articles pointing out that the mortgage market was crazy before the crash of 2008. Many Brexit supporters ran editorials laying out the reasons for Brexit.
So they're not really "low probability" events. They're "we don't think of that outcome" events.
True, those examples were foreshadowed, and I'd be surprised if a number of establishment analysts hadn't tried to game out Brexit--though without advertising their results.
But there are plenty of "low probability/high impact" scenarios: a coup and civil war in Mexico, catastrophic earthquake in Taiwan, and so on.
Brexit has been a catastrophe. The entire country is melting down and there will very probably be a general strike soon. Labour is easily out polling the Conservatives now, and will probably be the next government, and then try to reunite with Europe. Assuming of course that the Israeli ringer, Labour leader Starmer is tossed before this.
The level of stupidity displayed is astounding and it was all to keep the brown people out. Racism in fact is the reason for Brexit. That it was economic suicide was put aside for more important concerns.
The icing on this wonderful cake includes brown people in high places completely backing this policy. Rishi and Priti Patel are both children of immigrants and are the strongest advocates of sending refugees to Rwanda.
It would hard to even make this up as a comedy, but it is the truth. ;)
James, I don't think an earthquake in Taiwan fits into the "inconceivable" box. Isn't it right on the "ring of fire?" And likewise, the conflicts with the cartels in Mexico could fit the definition of a civil war. https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/06/mexico-why-2022-could-be-brutal-year-in-the-drug-war-16055265/
What would I place into my definition of an "inconceivable" event? Well, I look at the reports of the energy shortages in Europe, and I can conceive of lots of things. For one, my husband reports his friends in Germany have no idea of the dimensions of the problem looming this winter. People do not freeze happily. So, the collapse of multiple European governments seems possible.
Other "inconceivables." The collapse of the 3 Gorges Dam. A catastrophic nuclear accident due to the Ukraine war. A Carrington event. https://www.gaia.com/article/carrington-event
Stores in the UK are shutting down because they cannot afford the 10x rise in electricity.
"Circling the drain" was Riddick's phrase.
I should explain the above. The UK privatized all kind of things rather badly and the Electrical system was part of this. So there are a variety of providers, using the same grid, and the various contracts signed by medium sized outfits using this power are causing these insane price fluctuations.
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