Not Surprising that Central Europe is suspicious of Russian aims, seeing that they have been overrun with millions killed within living memory. Russia is large, but always believes that the next country over is "really" part of it, and needs to be protected from itself. You will note that these countries have no record of invading Russia. Still, Moscow remains convinced that any day now, it will happen.
You will notice that these countries do not have news blackouts. They don't fear the information getting out, or other ideas coming in to their own people.
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After losing 25 million people and then winning WW2 after being overrun by Germany, Russia did kill about 80% of all German troops killed, they are very nervous about their huge flat environment. No natural barriers at all.
They have been attacked many times and if you don't think that is a good enough reason for the present conflict, then taking a big chunk of Ukraine and making it Russia is their solution.
Well, actually... We _did_ invaded Russia. In XVII century. It first started as a private enterprise, and then state joined in. We have occupied Kremlin. Then there is also 1919-1921 war, in which we think we were invaded, and Russians think they were invaded (and the reality is rather messy, but I would say our claim have stronger basis).
In this PenGun is not wrong. It isn't so much that the next country over is necessarily going to invade Russia all by itself but that any likely aggressor is going to have to pass over that country's territory, and the Russians would really like those countries to be more friendly with them than anyone they see as an aggressor. Peter Zeihan brings this up a lot in explanation (note, not *justification*) for much of Russian geopolitics. The desire to push control to the defensible gaps at the far edges of the steppe has been a consistent desire from Peter the Great to Catherine to the Soviet Commissars to Putin. He brings this up most often now in discussions about the impact of deposing Putin, which in his opinion might blunt Russian expansion for a bit but wouldn't change the overall situation in the medium to long run. Anybody taking power in Moscow is going to come to a similar solution to Russia's geopolitical situation. It isn't just a matter of removing the bad man in the Kremlin. If we want to stabilize the situation we need to craft a solution that recognizes the geopolitical reality.
Apparently being nice to the flat countries around you is a geopolitical reality the Russians can't handle. Russia gets invaded once per century, never successfully, and its solution is to occupy the places around it indefinitely. Surprisingly, those countries don't like it. Russia believes that is their own fault. I don't see why they should have no rights of self-determination just because they are flat. As Christopher B notes, explanation is not justification.
I can see recognising the political reality that Russia is perennially paranoid, and thus kills even its own people by the millions, let alone neighbors. But we should accommodate that as little as possible. Saying "well, they've always been crazy, and their neighbors aren't saints either" may be the best we can manage, but we shouldn't pretend it's a just solution.
Question for internationalist liberals: If the US just goes home after WWII, is there a UN? Is there a Europe? It would be an interesting replay. Returning to our isolationism might have been better.
"Apparently being nice to the flat countries around you is a geopolitical reality the Russians can't handle."
This is not how geopolitics works. Maybe play some Diplomacy to see why. You do need a few people but it is an amazing game.
Which amusingly is now online.
https://www.playdiplomacy.com/
There is a good book from the 1970s called the Third World War written by three British Generals (Sort of a Red October written by real soldiers). The Soviets use a pretext to invade West Germany with the goal of knocking the Germans out of NATO in an Eastern block role. They correctly figure that if the Soviets were now at the French border there would be no NATO. But the West outplays the Soviets in the field with the Warsaw Pact countries starting with the Poles turning their tanks eastward. (Much like Ukraine today). The Russians hit Birmingham with a nuke followed by British and US missles hitting Minsk. A coup in Moscow saves the world from a more general conflict.
Russian paranoia will start the next world war and cannot be easily assuaged (and certainly not accommodated). Firm and steady support for the Central European countries and for honest Russian politicians is the only way.
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