There continues to be a very moderate improvement in the economy, which the stats-guys predict will be to Obama's advantage come November.
We are slaves to what is happening this minute, and forget the past so quickly. 18-month delay between when a president (or congress) is elected and their influence being greater than the previous guy(s and gals).
Ah well, the Congress is more important anyway. That changed in 2006, a little in 2008, then reversed in 2010. In all three cases, eighteen months after they took office...
Well, you can look it up yourself. It's more fun if you go back as far as the 1970's though.