I do not pretend to know diplomacy and strategy, whether short or long term.
I am seeing foreign opponents of Iran's IRG, and Hamas/Hezbollah claiming that Iran is not defeated enough and giving up enough. I have been worried all along that we would have our usual shockingly complete opening victory but then pissing it away. It's an oversimplified and likely shallow view, I know. Yet I worry still. Americans win and then get tired and move on to other things, and Trump has been quintessentially American in that way on other issues.
On the brighter side, I am also reading that despite the expenditure of weapons, our war with Iran has been a major setback for China's interest in Taiwan, leveraging India, controlling the polar regions, and influencing Latin America. It has been a boon for them in terms of Russia, but at Russia's expense more than ours. Africa a wash. I wish I knew more than bumper stickers about all this.
2 comments:
I assume it's a 'peace until the midterms' peace, in which the promises made don't matter because neither side actually intends to keep them.
Africa isn't a wash; both France and Russia have lost ground there in a serious way especially in the Sahel. The winning side are rather brutal Islamist militias.
Peace is generally considered to be the cessation of hostilities. I do not think we are there yet. Could it become a peace? Sure, all things are possible. Is it likely? I am skeptical. Generally a negotiated peace lasts if both parties are committed to it, or if one of the parties is in a strong enough position to compel it. I believe neither of those 2 conditions have been met, though I would like to be wrong.
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