Sunday, April 28, 2024

Kairos

In looking up logos, ethos, and pathos, Aristotle's modes of persuasion for use in a possible post*, in order to get them quite right, I found there is also kairos. Huh.  Never heard of it before.  I rather like it. It means the "right time", "season" or "opportunity".[4] Kairos is an appeal to the timeliness or context in which a presentation is publicized. (Wikipedia entry) The example given is an advertisement that relies on the same logic, appeal, and emotions it did forty years ago but has a different effect now.  I have thought that this was the one most powerful advantage of Martin Luther King, Jr.  All the logos, ethos, and pathos arguments had been made before, sometimes years before. But he sensed it was time, and leveraged the situation on that basis. Evangelists do the same, often realising it only in theory that a certain portion of their listeners will have been primed by the Holy Spirit to hear the Word this night, not on the basis of their preaching but because of how their whole lives have unfolded leading up to this moment. 

As a practical matter, we may use this far more often than we notice, only telling ourselves that we are operating from logos. We always think we are being super-logical, yet as near as we can test such things in our thinking and behavior, it seems we are usually just employing post hoc rationalisation.  Some psychologists would claim it's never any better than post hoc reasoning. I would allow that much is, perhaps even 99%.  However, why would we develop such a skill for rationalisation if it did not occasionally actually work and be recognised as superior? Why bother?

*I didn't use it directly in the previous post about inference, but it's in there, in the emanations from the penumbra.

Inference

When Christians are asked to provide a proof of the existence of God, or of the resurrection, it is a common response to use some version of the explanation "It doesn't work like that. Proof is actually a form of compulsion, that there is no possible other explanation and one simply must accept Explanation A. It is better to use what is called inference to best explanation." I will develop that no further. Others have done it better than I ever will.

I will allow that I have an initial sympathy with those who find this unsatisfying. It does have the sound of being evasive. "Well, you haven't got a proof, so you're sidestepping into some sort of second- or third-best approach instead." I don't think that argument is sustainable.  I think it is itself an evasion, because even those who use it revert immediately to inference to best explanation for everything esle they do, without noticing or acknowledging it. Yet people with OCD or Aspergerer's or a rather strict sense of laying everything out in the most provable possible sense do see why it at least seems like an evasion at first.  I would only say "Hold that thought and follow it further."

My intent here is to speak directly to the Christians about this state of affairs. Many of us would love to have a proof.  We would earnestly desire to have that level of no-escape surety, to be in effect compelled to believe because there was simply nothing else that could make it to the table. I think we miss why God runs things that way. He runs it that way because it accords with reality. If we had proof that God existed, we would without drawing another breath want a proof of exactly what sort he is, in finer and finer detail.  We would want proof that we were called to be an evangelist and want to know whether we should speak or write? To speak to crowds or to individuals? To preach revival in Memphis or in Nashville? To start the crusade at 7PM or 7:30PM? It is not only that we would be spoiled and childish, not developing any faith about it, which is the usual explanation given. It is that once one proof was given, of anything, we would never be quite sure of anything unproven ever again. And why would we not? If God proved one thing because it was so important, then why not the next thing as well?  What would be a possible reason for God not to prove himself over and over to the smallest detail?

We are given inference to best explanation as our starting point because it is also going to be our ending point and every point in between. In creating a psychiatric diagnosis, we look at the possibilities and try to fit the patients words and actions into one slot after another, hoping to find the closest fit. There are no glass slippers. Nor are there glass slippers in other parts of life.  Even the best possible matches have some downsides, some questions, some exceptions.

Saturday, April 27, 2024

Swamp Yankees

Based on a conversation over at Grim's I am reminded of a joke.  I should tell more, really.

Fred Fernald came home to find that his wife had taken one of the trucks and run off with the hired man. And it was the Ford, the one with the new clutch.

Friday, April 26, 2024

Judging Update

I judged the type of event I participated in in high school, and did reasonably well at then. So I had seen, however many years ago, children of the same age do this much better than what I was seeing in front of me this morning.  At the time I was judging in the morning I had a fairly clear idea what the difference was, and could relate it back to the last time I judged, even though those events, Persuasive and Impromptu, were somewhat different from Open Interpretive and Biblical Thematic that I saw today. I had the mechanics of judging down, I had an idea I thought solid, and I discussed it with some experienced judges and coaches over lunch. They were in agreement, and thought that only a percentage of students would get what I was driving at, and those mostly older and more experienced. One coach told me that he had a boy a few years ago who had learned it by junior year, and had won at nationals two years in a row, clearly better than all the competition.

So for whatever reason (perhaps related to increased abstract reasoning somehow?) only some will get it, but they thought if I wanted to hit that idea hard in my judging comments it would be a good thing. So I did. I worked some or all of the following into every ballot I filled out this afternoon.

It's not a race. If you watch a movie, or a standup comedian, you will see that they use the pauses and hesitations as much as the words to get their character and story across. You should be pausing in the middle of some sentences, and the end of others, and when you get really good, even have some planned "false starts" where you begin a sentence again after a word or two - just as it happens in real speech. If you have gone three straight sentences without a serious pause or a hesitation anywhere, you have probably done something wrong. You should change expression in the pauses as new thoughts appear to occur to you, or sigh deeply, or shake your head.  It should take twice as long as just reading the words.

I did not write, because there was not the time, but to expand here: Consider the story of the woman taken in adultery in the Bible. When we read it aloud, it rattles right along. But to act it as a scene, there is a long pause between the question to Jesus the question changed and repeated a few times, and his answer; a painfully long pause while he draws in the dirt; a long pause between his question to the woman and her answer.  She has been weeping and is not nearly recovered.  She came up to the edge of a painful death. She still isn't sure what happened to her or who this man is. Her crying should not be wailing or shrieking, but soft, and she should have a hard time saying anything.  Then Jesus pauses again, and may even pause between "Go now...and?" and she looks at him puzzled, not knowing what to answer. When he says "Sin no more" that should take her a while to absorb as well, before she nods and walks away. It takes a minute to read verses 4-11 out loud.  It should take four minutes to act it out. Don't do that for performance at a competition - unless you have been doing this pausing for effect for a few years - but do it for practice.

Or in the chapter "The Rashness of the King" in CS Lewis's The Last Battle, the scene between Tirian and Jewel the Unicorn leading up to "...we must go on and take the adventure that comes to us."  Thirty seconds read aloud. Twice that when acted, or more. These are the most important moments of their lives you are enacting.  They aren't rushing, they are absorbing moment by moment.


Thursday, April 25, 2024

Judging

I am off to judge Christian home-school high school speech contests today, the Regional championships in Chelmsford, MA. I have done it once before, with mixed success.  Unfortunately, the improvements I noted in myself over the course of the day I cannot now recall. Starting at near-zero.

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Here I Am

From "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels"


Would ya look at that coffered ceiling,
Look at that chandelier.
Excuse me but how I'm feeling
IS a hundred-proof.
I could raise the roof.
I'm so happy to be here.
I've been kind of missing
Mom and Daddy,
Sort of in a spin since Cinncinatti.
The morning flight, a major bore
But then they open the cabin door
And zoot alors-
Here I am!

Lord knows I had the will
And the resources
But Mom and Dad kept saying
"Hold your horses."
I guess those ponies couldn't wait-
Pardon me folks but
They've left the gate
I may be late, but
Here I am!

Ah,
The way to be, to me, is French
The way to say "La Vie" is French
So here I am, Beaumont Sur Mer, a
Big two weeks on the Rivier-a.
If I'm only dreaming
Please don't wake me.
Let the summer sun
And Breezes take me.
Excuse me if I seem jejeune,
I promise I'll find my marbles soon

But everywhere I look
It's like a scene from a book.
Open the book and
Here I am!

I mean
The air is French
That chair is French
This nice sincere sancerre is French
The skies are French
The pies are French
Those guys are French
These fries are French!
Pardon me if I
Fly off the handle,
No place else on earth
Can hold a candle

So, Veni Vidi Vici, folks
Let's face it,
Je suis ici, folks!

Excusez-moi
If i spout-
I'm letting my
Je n'sais qoi out.
I'm sorry to shout but

Here I am!

Dog in a Cat Family

Writing about depression, I recalled a case from around 1987. It doesn't illustrate anything I just wrote about particularly, it's just interesting. 

A man in his late 30's came in, a biker who had attempted suicide. He was extremely discouraged over the first 48 hours, and we were concerned. That age and cultural fit usually bounced back quickly, maybe too quickly, insisting that nothing was really wrong and we were treating him unfairly and keeping him from his life by holding him. Those folks are generally okay for quite a while.  There is usually a next time, because denying reality often has payback, but I had already read a few histories of people who has depression and suicide attempts every ten or fifteen years, but were generally able to hold jobs, have friends, raise families. But this guy was a first attempt at 37, lucky he didn't die, and not arguing with us about leaving.

It's an open question whether the Holy Spirit was speaking through me on this one. His wife visited and I had a family meeting to meet her and discuss the future. He asked her rather plaintively "Did any of the Disciples call?"  No, she had to say.  Mark's wife had called, but none of the guys in his club. 

"I've been thinking,"  I said, which was a lie, because I had not had this thought until that very moment. Can the Holy Spirit lead off with a lie like that?  It doesn't sound right, y'know? On the other hand, it felt like no thought of mine and it eventually worked.  And perhaps one could stretch a point and say I had been thinking it in the last few seconds, anyway, or that it was just a manner of speaking to soften any possible lecturing tone. You be the judge. "I don't think you're a motorcycle guy.  You just don't feel like one.  You feel more like a classic cars guy." His wife looked surprised, and said directly to him "Well, the only other people who have called were Jerry and Tom.  And your sister." He nodded, as if considering.

I looked back and forth between the two of them. "Am I right in thinking that Jerry and Tom are classic car guys?" He nodded again. "Maybe I've just been a dog in a cat family."  It was a good saying, and I've kept it. It doesn't say that dogs are bad or cats are bad, just that they aren't in the same family. "I used to be more of a classic cars guy. I've still got a lot of the tools." The next day he told me that he'd already had good offers on both his bikes. He was chipper, upbeat. I told him not to burn his bridges behind him and to say nice things to the Disciples he had ridden with.

I saw him almost a decade later at a downtown road rally with his 1958 Chevy Impala. He recognised me before I did him.  We had a nice conversation and I told him to say hello to his wife for me. There was no Great Moment, no movie-version Heartfelt Thanks or anything like that.  It would have seemed embarrassing to both of us, I think. I was glad that he looked okay.

I don't usually think of the Holy Spirit operating in terms of "what kind of guy are you?" But, well, suicidal.  And it worked.  And I swear those thoughts were not anything of mine.  I still don't know what I'd mean by a biker versus a classic cars guy.

Crusades

The crusade was a late, limited, and unsuccessful imitation of the jihad. Bernard Lewis

The Weight of Glory

Ben used to work with a Methodist pastor who thought it would be good if the Christian Church could add to the scriptures over time. As his nomination from the 20th C was "Letter From Birmingham Jail," I think he has effectively illustrated what can go wrong with such things, as the MLK essay is a political document that draws from scriptural ideas.  Not the same thing, Binky.

The Roman Catholics have something a bit like adding to scripture in the Church Fathers and some of the great lights in Church history; the Episcopalians have "tradition" in their three-legged stool; the Methodists similarly have their quadrilateral. There have been Calvinists who have urged greater attention to Calvin's explanation of the Scriptures than to the Bible itself (too many Puritans in that group), and all groups can get overfond of their Small Catechism, or the volumes of Ellen G. White, or whatever.  "Our faith is built on nothing less, than Scofield's Notes and Scripture Press." 

Here is my nomination from the 20th C, The Weight of Glory, a sermon delivered by CS Lewis in 1941. Scroll down to page 13. See if that works.

There is a YouTube audio version

Monday, April 22, 2024

Long Time Coming

It has been a long time since I posted an ABBA video. The current audience may not have heard the background: Disco came in just as I was leaving college and getting out of the Top 40 experience, so ABBA always seemed a bit risible to me, especially the costumes. When I started a blog 30 years later, I put up ABBA stills and videos with heavy irony.

But I came to like them. Be careful what you make fun of.



Links from 2007

I find that my standards are uneven on these repostings.  Sometimes I think nearly all should be reposted in full, at other times I just think they are interesting and worth a link.

The elections of 1958 changed the country, for very little reason

Discussing the War - Sir James Barrie has an amusing scene about that 

Commonalities of Conspiracists -Some things never change

Relatedly, The NH Tax Protestors.

When small language problems bother me.

My caseload was a little more extreme than usual that week. 

 

Does Depression Exist?

From The Studies Show* again, which provides good material episode after episode, Does Depression Exist? (Transcript available)

I usually avoid the topic, not because there are no valid questions in the area, but because the valid questions are seldom asked,  and one ends up arguing against the same half-truths (or quarter truths) with your own three-quarter truths, so more heat is generated than light. On other sites I might enter into a discussion briefly, but I tend not to put it up here, because once it's happening at my cocktail party I rather have to be involved.

But this episode is good enough that I believe we can invite the vampire over the threshold this time. Yes, there are significant problems in defining and treating many mental illnesses, depression being among the worst. The short version is that the measurements are crude and don't seem to have been improved in years, and the treatments are only partly successful. 

One of the reasons that we say that intelligence is a real trait which can be somewhat measured is that when we look at many things which might go into that, we find that they are correlated. We find that the people who compute efficiently also compute quickly, also have high vocabularies, also catch on quickly to new ideas, have better memories, organise things spatially, see connections between ideas, etc.  There is still some variation, but there is a clear trend that we are observing a something. This is also true of depression, but much less so. There are usual symptoms we might associate with "being depressed" right off the top of our head, such as sad mood, less enjoyment of activities, poor sleep, poor appetite, less energy. The questions on the tests come at these basic ideas in different ways. One would think that a paper and pencil test might be able to ask things in a repeatable straightforward way, but one of the things we have learned is that depressed people don't think too hard about the answers sometimes. If you have ever taken a test that seems to be asking the same questions with maddening frequency, this is why. You ask if they have been crying more often, and they say no.  You ask if they have been getting less enjoyment out of activities they usually like and they say no. You ask if they have been more easily discouraged lately and they say no. Then you ask if they have been feeling more guilty, ruminating on past sins or bad decisions and the light goes on for them.  Yes, yes, they have, and suddenly they want to go back to those earlier questions, because come to think of it, they haven't been enjoying things as much. "Now that you mention it, I have had a harder time getting out of bed these last five weeks, even though work isn't really more difficult that usual."

The thing that is often wrong with the tests is that they are only going to give you an approximate measure at best, but people doing research have to treat an average answer of 21 at quite different from an average answer of 23.  Over a few thousand people, this is true.  But for you, sitting in front of the doctor, it's going to be +/- 4 points that are not that meaningful. 

Next up, CBT, SSRI's, SSNI's, energising or atypical antidepressants, coaching, trauma-sensitive therapy - all of these seem to help some.  Combos are often better. So why bother if it's only a little?  Because with depression, a little improvement is often enough.  We are remarkably resilient, and if we have been soldiering on when every morning feels like an oppression, even a minor lift can be huge. One of the toughest things to measure, but generally agreed to be important is the ability to rally temporarily when the chips are down. Even very depressed people can suck it up and say "It's my daughter's wedding.  No one is going to see a flicker of depression in me this weekend.  I'll collapse Monday."

One can immediately see that issues of character, of training, of duty are huge confounders when measuring depressive symptoms under such circumstances. 

But internally, we know that's what we are doing. We feel worse than we did three months ago. We have worse mood, less energy.  We call it depression because that's the word we have for it.  But all these symptoms exist on a continuum, and they are fairly evenly distributed.  The line graphs for infection show a large hump on the left-hand side, a smaller hump far, far up the scale. It's not a continuum. But for depression, there are similar numbers of people at scores of 20, 21, 22...27.  We draw lines and say "You have severe depression. You have moderate depression.  You don't have depression." 

Tangent:  I have written often over the last few years about autism/Asperger's/ASD symptoms and these are analogous. If we took an imaginary 1-10 scale for autism, it is not the case that almost everyone is at 1-3 (as would be true with infection) and there is a blip of autistic people at 8-10. It is all more level and gradual than that.  Even more, I have come to favor the histogram approach. It's messy. We all have some of it.  Some of us clearly have lots of it. We may eventually be able to narrow this down to ten separate axes that interact with each other, but at present, what we have are moderately-associated traits.

So too with depression. We all recognise that there are times we feel worse than others, and unfortunately sometimes much worse. It may or may not be related to an identified cause, such as grief or getting fired, but it's clearly there. At a certain point, we say of ourselves or of others, "this looks like depression." But it's not necessarily one thing.

Of these many symptoms, I was most familiar with dealing with those whose condition was very bad, enough to be suicidal or to stop caring for oneself altogether. I am therefore not a particularly good judge of mild depression.  My brother lived with us for six months before I came to and said "Y'know, you're depressed, and I am sorry I didn't put two and two together before." While there are collections of symptoms, it can often be one thing which is bringing on the others.  Insomnia is the most notorious of these. Your problem was originally insomnia. But now you have four problems, of irritability, discouragement, poor appetite, anhedonia. We may over the next decades learn to just break it all down into six distinct, interactive symptoms and treat each separately, calling none of them depression.

At the moment I have an unusual situation of being prescribed a chemically-abrasive cream for a week by the dermatologist. It feels like a sunburn, and as if all my life-force is being diverted to fixing my skin. I don't focus well, I am tired and easily discouraged. If by some chance I were taking a common depression test there is a good chance that I would score higher than usual on it, perhaps even high enough to red-flag a professional who saw the numbers that I needed some attention.  I would be called depressed. A new observer would wonder whether I was depressed because I look like an albino raccoon. But I don't think that is bothering me much.  I accepted that my modeling career was over many decades ago. Yet I feel depressed. Yet I know that i am not really depressed, and will be better in a week when my skin has healed.  My energy will not be directed to skin-fixing.

*Sidebar changed

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Anonymous Donors

I can see how this would definitely be true for some people. The Signal-burying Game. 

Abstract:  People sometimes make their admirable deeds and accomplishments hard to spot, such as by giving anonymously or avoiding bragging. Such ‘buried’ signals are hard to reconcile with standard models of signalling or indirect reciprocity, which motivate costly pro-social behaviour by reputational gains. To explain these phenomena, we design a simple game theory model, which we call the signal-burying game. This game has the feature that senders can bury their signal by deliberately reducing the probability of the signal being observed. If the signal is observed, however, it is identified as having been buried. We show under which conditions buried signals can be maintained, using static equilibrium concepts and calculations of the evolutionary dynamics. We apply our analysis to shed light on a number of otherwise puzzling social phenomena, including modesty, anonymous donations, subtlety in art and fashion, and overeagerness.

I wonder how widespread this is, and hope it doesn't include me.