I continue to be troubled by the polling Grim revealed in A Britina looks at Texas Manhood. It's not good polling, as the "reader's context" inserts, but the fact that Platner's numbers improved, especially among 18-29 y/o's after they had been told of his sexual scandals is concerning. I commented twice at Grim's, where the tentative thinking is that Democrats are thrashing around trying to find their own Trump in order to attract some of that masculine energy. It could be.
As it keeps coming back into my brain these last few days, I have another possible explanation. The more criticism of him comes out, and the worse it is, the more some people will conclude "they must must be so worried about him that they are making stuff up. That's how the system works, dude." They are anti-Bayesian, in a way: the more evidence comes forward, the less they believe it. If the Trumpists hate him so much, the more they must be just be exaggerating the meaning of a stupid tattoo he got as a kid, and trying to portray regular arguments with his ex-wife and his girlfriends as something dangerous. He's just a regular guy like me, and they fear that.
We saw that from the other side. I can recall telling people in 2016 "There's plenty to complain about with Trump that's true. Why do they feel compelled to make stuff up?" His opponents kept escalating, many of them believing the claims, with a reasoning "His followers are insane! They support him even when we have revealed that he poisoned the entire Commonwealth of Virginia! I mean, what does it take?" But his supporters weren't entirely innocent in that. They very quickly moved to disbelieving all of it reflexively. Foxhole friends are what all candidates want. Anyone can believe you when you're innocent. Only the true believers will stick with you when you are clearly guilty. We are seeing that with Karmelo Anthony now.
Maybe I just expected better from the people of Maine. The evidence against Platner is solid and abundant, but the more it adds up, the more people are convinced that Susan Collins, of all people, is a dangerous Trumpist, and every true Mainer has to rally 'round her opponent.
3 comments:
People tend to seek out views that confirm their biases, rather than challenge their biases. It is a very human thing to do, and while disappointing, I expect it will continue. He seems likely to disappoint his voters, I don't see much depth or character, only rage and appetite. Perhaps rage and appetite are good enough, in Maine.
I remember reading a polling analysis back in 2008 about Obama, and as I recall it said: 'Everyone has received everything about him, and they believe it. They believe he's a Socialist; they believe he isn't a natural born American; they believe all the charges. They're going to vote for him anyway.' As they did. Bush had pushed the Iraq War and other things so far that whatever the alternative was, that's what they wanted.
Sometimes people have got to do what they have got to do. One crazy Nazi Senator won't kill us, but I wonder if they aren't just committed to voting for an effective opposition whatever it looks like.
Keep in mind the people making outrageous accusations against various politicians are partisans that don't support them trying to find some 'silver bullet' that will make other people abandon them, and they very often have an imperfect understanding of why those politicians have become popular.
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