The restaurant industry is going to be weaker until it finds some serious adaptations, and this would have been true regardless of lockdown. Entertainment in general, including live sports, are going to be hit hard. Going to a concert, going to a play, going to a game, going to a restaurant - all of these depend on wanting to be with other people as part of the fun. All that will come back, but not to previous levels. With this also, I don't think lockdown/no lockdown was going to change the even the medium-term outcome. Will we keep them all at higher prices and smaller crowds? I have already put my oar in that VR will benefit in the long run.
College is going to change, and I think a lot of schools won't weather the storm. Retail shops may be hurt for the same reason as restaurants. Many will be unable to get by on 20% fewer live customers, never mind 50% fewer. Once the epidemic started I don't think there was much we were going to do that would change that. Some people are just going to write off crowded places and get used to that. China has hurt us badly with this. We want to punish them at the moment and are willing to pay more to cut them out, but I wonder if we will sustain that.
Will most of the rest bounce back quickly?
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It's hard to imagine that it would be quick. With hours cut back, some people have had to tap into such savings as they have. That puts off buying a replacement car, or a new mattress--demand will be down.
Locally, restaurants will get better at to-go orders and add/upgrade outdoor seating options. Food trucks will add neighborhood promotions to offset fewer large events. Grubhub, Grubsouth, other food delivery services are going to suffer in the long run because restaurants are going to balk at the fees. Catering and event locations are going to be in trouble because conferences will go virtual. Wedding parties will be smaller and move to outdoor locations.
There will be support for a permanent relaxing of liquor laws that prevent delivery sales from restaurants and bars. Liquor and grocery stores will want to get in on this also. Being in the Bible Belt, there will also be great opposition, but the "conversation" will begin.
There's a general principle that capitalism works better than central planning because local information is more complete than the level of information that can be centralized. I don't know how they'll do it either, in other words; but once we start letting them figure it out, they'll probably figure something out.
I've disliked crowded places since I was little and nothing will tempt me to try them again after this.
I will be a bit of a contrarian on some of these.
Sports will recover. Most of the money there was in broadcast rights and those are going to be even more valuable with people staying at home. Plenty of mid-season baseball games are played in half-empty stadiums. As far as the arenas and stadiums go, half of some income is better than all of none.
Concerts by major artists could very likely move to a sports model with more streaming and broadcasting but fewer live dates. Again, streaming services and broadcasters are going to be looking for new content that people will be willing to pay for.
Movie theaters and Broadway/off-Broadway probably will suffer since the live performance experience is the draw.
Restaurants probably depends on the business model. Those that can survive with expanded take-out/delivery and small niche establishments will probably do OK. The larger free-standing plate service and buffet places (I'm thinking Cracker Barrel and Golden Corral, for examples) are going to hurt.
Global supply chains and China in particular were already on their way out. Cheap is good but I don't think businesses are going to forget sales dropping to zero because they had no components or product.
I think you are a bit over your skis predicting a 25% long term reduction in retail foot traffic, or even 50% medium term that isn't government mandated. Colleges also seem to be doubling down on re-opening for residential classes. As was observed in an earlier thread, we talk a good game about how death impacts us, individually and collectively, but we're really a pretty callous bunch as a species. If this is a repeat of the 1918-1920 Influenza (or previous SARS or MERS outbreaks) that goes away most of us going to forget about it fairly rapidly, just like everyone is misremembering the experience of the 1957 and 1968 outbreaks. If this becomes another of the 101 ways Nature already has of removing us from this mortal coil, we already call double or triple the normal number of seasonal URI deaths 'just a bad flu year'. If the seasonal average goes up to 50,000 with a 'bad year' being a 100,000, I expect we'll adapt.
@ HMS Defiant. I too dislike crowds and avoid them. My boycotting them even more isn't a big change. @ Christopher B. It wasn't that contrarian. ;) I hope you are right about retail traffic. It is more likely that certain spots or types may hit a 25-50% reduction - numbers I pulled out of the air - but others will see much less dropoff or eventually even none.
Sports and entertainments may adapt. The crowd is part of what they sell on TV, though. I imagine they will keep trying until they get it close enough that everyone tunes back in. I do wonder if lots of people just don't bother to come back. I don't much care - though I was already boycotting basketball this year and had faded as a baseball fan long ago.
If the bounce back is that good, will we then say we overreacted to the shutdown as much as overreacting to the virus? I smirk as I write that. Of course we won't. People are too angry and will never see it that way.
I expect we will adapt to whatever new normal results, even if it is worse than the numbers you suggest. I suppose that is callousness, but it is also just pressing on.
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