Sweden and Opening Up

At the moment, Sweden has the 9th-highest C19 death rate per million in Europe.  If you eliminate tiny San Marino and Andorra, it is 7th-worst. at 200/mil.  Its best comps geographically and culturally are
Denmark 68/mil
Germany 67/mil
Norway 36/mil
Estonia 34/mil
Finland 31/mil

It may turn out that come autumn Sweden has more herd immunity and does very well, reversing these numbers.  It is also possible that five years from now with recurring coronaviruses every year we all say "Oh, if only we had done what the Swedes did back then.  They had foresight and courage." But at the moment Sweden is not looking great, even though a few articles are coming out telling us how well it is working.

You have to understand that Scandinavians in general are very big on national pride, always telling pollsters how happy they are compared to other countries and insisting that they have got the economic/cultural/religious/vacation/educational models best, with the Swedes being the most extreme of that in most instances.  Even the other Scandinavians have about had it with them. They do have their rebels and contrarians, but generally, if you ask a Swedish expert how things are going in his country about crime, or euthanasia, or gender equity, or Saami rights, she or he will tell you how wonderfully they are doing. All countries do this, but Sweden does it more.

I would love to tell you differently. There may be arguments for opening up America.  Sweden isn't one of them.

The US just hit 50,000 deaths in about nine weeks. A large percentage of those have specific explanations that might be called exceptions: New York City, New Orleans,  Detroit, Massachusetts, Washington State.  On the other hand, if there are that many exceptions it suggests there is an inherent instability that can be tripped fairly easily. Trying to explain away NOLA because Mardi Gras is a one-off event that involves a lot of contact, well, that's what Vegas is all the time.  That's what Walt Disney World is all the time.  That's Super Bowl week, the larger rock tours, and to a lesser degree a host of smaller festivals: up here there is Laconia Bike Week, for example.  Even if hairdressers can go back to work (probably a good idea, with precautions), lots of things can't go back they way they were. And the anger needs to stay fixed on the Chinese communist government.