Thursday, April 09, 2020

Errors in Both Directions

The C19 statistics on number of deaths may be too high because people may have died of pneumonia or something else and also had C19. I have read commenters at conservative sites who reduce the number of C19 deaths to near-zero on that basis, reasoning that these were people at death's door anyway and claiming there is no solid evidence that there is an overall increase in the number of deaths.

The C19 statistics may also be  too low because they do not include people who died at home who might not otherwise have died. Those numbers might be high in Italy and Spain.  They are an unknown here in the US, but occur in all environments - urban, suburban, rural.

2 comments:

Boxty said...

We know there were about 250,000 deaths from all causes in March of 2018 and 2019 in the U.S. We apparently don't have solid figures for March of 2020 yet. Once they are in then we will have an idea how bad C19 really was.

Tom Bridgeland said...

Yep Boxty. We need the excess deaths number. But in fact with isolation, excess deaths could actually be down. Less driving, fewer flu cases etc.