When I have discussed reduced fertility and possible pro-natalist policies that would help, I not only quote "things to try," and "reasons why we aren't having children," but my commenters are likely to offer their own ideas. However...
France has already implemented most of the modern pro-natalist wish list (reducing income tax rates based on the size of the household, cash payments to mothers at birth, cash allowances for families, subsidized child care, universal paid parental leave, school cost payments, and housing subsidies for families with three or more children), though many of these programs are means-tested, and the French state has been ideologically pro-natalist since the interwar period. In total, France spends about 3.6% of GDP on family programs, rising to 4.7% if you account for the indirect income tax adjustments and pensions benefits (the highest in the OECD). France does have the highest fertility in Europe… but this is largely due to the exceptionally high fertility (TFR = 2.95) of non-European immigrants, who account for 22% of total births. Rather than bringing French fertility to replacement, the French pro-natalist state overwhelmingly subsidizes large families in the massive Arab and African populations (which makes the problems of population decline worse, not better). Contrary to the Age of Malthusian Industrialism hypothesis, native French fertility (TFR = 1.62) is at the high end for Europe but by no means exceptional.
(From Arcotherium at Aporia "Communist Pro-Natalism")
1 comment:
Yeah, it's not the economics of having kids. Without extraordinary interventions, the prime age for a woman to bear children in a reasonably modern society is roughly between 18 and 35. Eat up a third of those years with secondary schooling, and another third establishing a career, and most women will likely have one or at most two kids simply because of the delay. This pattern will have downstream impacts as it establishes an overall social pattern of women delaying marriage, delaying child-rearing, and having small families. I don't know that there would be any acceptable incentives that would result in a shift to earlier marriage and child-bearing, and having a larger family. Maybe the apparent shift away from stints of lengthy post-secondary education for men will inspire a similar transition for women.
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