Prediction

Here I am, ignoring the lesson I just wrote about in Worst of Sinners and giving you the prediction that a thousand other people could give, because I think it Should Be Heard More, while ignoring what might be the quieter, more specific lesson that I have actually been commissioned to.  But here it goes, and I will think about whether there is something I can bring that is not readily found elsewhere.

There is a new Covid variant.  Some people will be predicting that this is very, very terrible and we need to revert to strict cautions.  Others will insist that this is no danger whatsoever, but "they" want you to panic and control your life, so ignore them and go breathe on everyone. This will be the default belief of a subset of us/them/our noble lads/those evil bastards on the caution issue, and have no relation to any actual scientific data.  To the accusation "Well, they always say it's dangerous and scream we're all going to die" I would point out that there have been several previous variants - check the Greek alphabet - where there was no such prediction. So that accusation is false. OTOH, the desire to have one's worldview reinforced is very powerful, so horrible as it is, there may actually people who are secretly rooting for this variant killing people, just to show those others what poopyheads they are.

The most common type of virus mutation is more contagion, less virulence. So that's the way to bet, (All of you actually know something about this as I write, but I don't.  A neighbor tried to inform me but I waved her off.  I want my prediction to be clean.) And if so, then the calculations change going forward. It is never a good thing to get a disease.  Even mothers who take their children to "chicken pox parties" know it is a calculated risk, even if it is worth it. But more natural immunity versus very low death risk is different than Delta, maybe even something of a Delta reversal. But I will know more in a few minutes.  For now, your takeaway is to ignore all the screaming on both sides from people who made up their minds months ago about today's information.  You will be happier for it.  That is one of the bits of advice I actually am here for. 

Let's all take a Lamaze Cleansing Breath here, as a lovely social worker I used to share a team with used to say.