Bethany again looks for the research, finds there is very little research, and so does some research.
Do People Ever Change Their Minds About Controversial Cases?
This is why polling can be valuable: people’s perception of what others think does not necessarily match what others actually do think, and it definitely doesn’t always catch when people change what they think.
Data Republican is a national treasure, and it looks like she does this full time. Bethany, OTOH, has a day job, a husband and child, and lots of medical appointments or she would be DataCatholic/~Feminist/~Libertarian*, which doesn't really roll off the tongue and sell subscriptions.
We think we know what the general public thinks, but it is often only what "my people" think, or "those stupid other mass culture people" think, or what I overheard today, saw a poll on today, or was assured by reliable opinionards is true. There is almost nothing that we have more than a slender portion of the data, but even with that low bar, gauging public opinion might be near the bottom of the list. This leads to the puzzle of whose opinion we do actually know pretty well. Perhaps I should write about that general question.
Public perception does change, but is tough to suss out, because there are so many temporary and interactive factors that influence point-in-time opinion guesses discernment.
*I don't know who has what symbols and semiotics in place, but "~" means approximately.
4 comments:
Aw thanks, that was very kind. One plus side about doing it for free I've realized as time has gone on is that I can use my writing solely to explore the stuff that interests me most instead of what people will pay for. That's not a comment on DataRepublican (whose stuff I haven't much dived in to), but in the true crime space I'm convinced a lot of the problems we've seen have been people competing for the same few dollars. Having a day job gives one a lot of freedom.
In the comments there, I am scheming that long term I would like to turn this in to a bigger project of a yearly true crime "state of opinions" type survey. I do have a lot of curiosity about where something like support for Lindsay Clancy goes in 5-10 years. I know several mothers of young children who identified with her quite strongly, but will they maintain that when their children are teenagers? Will she still strike people the same when she's in her 40s or 50s? Will currently childless women who subsequently have children relate to her, or is the identification solely restricted to women who currently have kids while the trial was ongoing?
I'd love answers to those questions and if I can carve out the time I'd like to make an effort at getting them.
I would like to read this; please correct the link. I apologize for having to mention it.
Guessing: in 10 years almost nobody currently supporting LD will remember who she was.
Reminded, some will reflexively maintain their old support, though probably not vehemently, and most of the rest will feel distant enough from the events and their old self to admit the possibility that LD might be guilty -- so long as it doesn't matter anymore. They wouldn't be caught up in the frenzy anymore. I don't know if that qualifies as changing your mind.
Some no doubt will be as vehement as ever that LD is innocent.
I'd be curious what the fraction of each would be.
Fixed. Thank you.
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