The Odds

My weather site likes to have fun little filler stories about the things they know will excite people: tornadoes, lightning strikes, floods, blizzards. Today it has "Powerball wins or lightning strike: Which has better odds?" No I am not going to link to it.

Let me 'splain this to you, Lucy. It depends very much on my brother's frequent caution: "What do you mean by better?" Powerball wins have odds of zero that it will kill you.  Lightning strikes have odds of zero that you win millions of dollars. Any of the statistical twists that start "The odds are greater that you will die from tripping over a cat than..." should be viewed with extreme suspicion. They aren't completely useless.  Sometimes the popular perception of something is so far off that it deserves being slapped around a little. But generally, it is just comparing two things that are never going to happen to you.