Behold, a new online magazine, Asterisk. They seem to have enough interesting topics going that I will consider putting them on my sidebar if they keep it up. In addition to Stuart Ritchie on what we do after the replication crisis is over, and the (technical) future of factory farming, there is an article on why China has trouble building semiconductors and why that is a very big deal.
For China, depending on its main competitors for critical components is unacceptable. The Chinese Communist Party knows a thing or two about economic leverage, having itself used its dominant position in the processing of rare earth metals to threaten or punish other countries since 2010. 2 As tensions have risen in recent years, the United States has increasingly moved to restrict China’s access to semiconductor technologies, challenging the CCP’s dreams of technological empire. Beijing’s “no-limits” partner to the north, Russia, has tasted firsthand what it feels like to have semiconductor imports decimated by American sanctions. Allegedly, Russian military equipment contains chips salvaged from dishwashers and refrigerators, while Yale researchers describe the outlook for Russia as “economic oblivion.” China’s dependence on the semiconductor supply chain likely moderates the country’s willingness to escalate international conflicts with the United States and its partners.
Plus Scott Alexander of Astral Codex Ten discussing whether Wine is fake.
Your classiest friend invites you to dinner. They take out a bottle of Chardonnay that costs more than your last vacation and pour each of you a drink. They sip from their glass. “Ah,” they say. “1973. An excellent vintage. Notes of avocado, gingko and strontium.” You’re not sure what to do. You mumble something about how you can really taste the strontium. But internally, you wonder: Is wine fake?
The short version is that a very small number of people, perhaps less than 1%, can tell the subtle differences well enough to accurately identify regions, years, and vineyards. I have a brother-in-law born outside of Paris who was a chemical engineer and whose father was a perfumer for Chanel whose word I trust that he actually knows what he is saying. Yet even that raises the question "If these differences are not even detectable by 99% of us, why would we spend more that a few bucks for a bottle?"
Dave Barry did a similar sendup to Alexanders years ago and used the phrase "nuances of toast."
Good article. Of course, if China really wants to be independent in making the chips, they have to develop an indigenous capability to themselves make the machines that make the chips...extreme precision, superfine optics...I'd imagine that craft skills are as important as engineering skills in creating such machines.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.asml.com/en/
A few months ago there was a good Economist article on the complexity of the chip supply chain and why it's impossible (in the author's opinion) for any single country to be entirely self-reliant in this industry. Irritated with myself that I can't find it.
Turns out it was Financial Times, not the Economist:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ft.com/content/f76534bf-b501-4cbf-9a46-80be9feb670c?utm_source=pocket_mylist
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https://www.ft.com/content/f76534bf-b501-4cbf-9a46-80be9feb670c?utm_source=pocket_mylist
governments in China, the US, Europe and elsewhere have determined to “onshore” semiconductor manufacturing. So-called supply chain resilience has become a central aim of policy. But such resilience is a myth.
These new national efforts are backed by huge subsidies and state-backed investments. The US Senate at the end of July approved the $52bn CHIPS Act. Japan’s government will back TSMC to the tune of ¥476bn ($3.5bn) to build a factory there for the first time.
"The trouble is these efforts touch only the visible end of the semiconductor supply chain. Behind chip production sits a network supplying equipment and other items encompassing hundreds of raw materials, chemicals, consumable parts, gases and metals without which the bogglingly precise process of chipmaking could not function."
Don't have to really supply everything oneself to be fairly resilient, though: for those things you can't make (or mine) internally, need to be able to get them from non-hostile countries, ideally with at least 2 sources for each critical item.
Assistant Village Idiot: The short version is that a very small number of people, perhaps less than 1%, can tell the subtle differences well enough to accurately identify regions, years, and vineyards.
ReplyDeleteIt was different in the olden days, when wines were strongly tied to their vineyards and to the weather. Nowadays, the best grapes have been propagated around the world and homogenized. You can buy Champaign from California or Bordeaux from Australia. The origin and year matters much less than it did.
Even my loving family makes fun of my "expertise" with wine because the few wines I do somewhat, sort of like are the el cheapo ones... Franzia Crisp White, for example. When I am tasked with buying the wine for a family meal, I go to a neighborhood gas station/liquor store, with a very knowledgeable owner. I say, "Steve, here's the menu and this is my price range." The only reason my family 'lets' me buy wine is because they know Steve is going to choose it.
ReplyDeleteBut... whisky! There I can appreciate the nuances. There is only one distillery that I can identify and that's because, though it is expensive, the gym socks are prevalent.
The Crisp White is also 8% ETOH instead of 12, so I can walk around sipping on some all day without fear.
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