People do not estimate very well what rank-and-file members of the political parties are like, according to this newish study out of UChicago. I have seen such things for years, and can safely say we were never very good at it. However, even with that said I think we might be worse now. It is disquieting to think "who are the people who think like this?"
I think I would do reasonably well at these estimates - a lot better than the average person of either party, anyway - simply by knowing base rates and political information. Black people are about 11% of the population, vote 90% Democrat, and have slightly less participation in politics than other groups, so thinking that 44% of Democrats are black is way off.
It shows the power of the stereotypes, but the person who sent this along offered an additional bit. We don't think of the people that we actually know from parties, or we think that they are somehow always an exception to the national trends. When we hear the word "Democrat" we think of Obama/Biden/Pelosi/Harris, instead of "Lurlene next door." But there are a million times more of the "next doors."
*I loved the scene and the line when I saw the movie in 1969 and remembered it, but not until years later, after reading The Princess Bride did I connect that this bit of followers who can track over ridiculous terrain (especially the Indian) is a very William Goldman touch.
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