Monday, May 18, 2020

Suicide Rates/Death Rates

I google-stalk* my new commenters, because they often come from interesting places intellectually.  Brassfjord shows up as a commenter over at Slate Star Codex, one of my favorite places to go to challenge myself.  So we know s/he's not afraid to think hard and hear contrary information.

It led me to a very interesting post at SSC about worldwide suicide rates and ethnicity
Guyana has the highest national suicide rate in the world, 30 people per year per 100,000. Guyana has poverty and crime and those things, but no more so than neighboring Brazil (suicide rate of 6) or Venezuela (suicide rate of 4). What’s going on?
The various possible explanations are brought up, questioned, partially supported, kicked around, etc. Whether something is called a suicide can vary by culture, and even after debate and lots of on-the-one-hand/on-the-other-hand discussions can end with throwing up one's hands.
 
It is interesting in itself, but it also bears on the difficulty of what the cause of death is in so many other circumstances.  Yes, some C19 deaths might be an overestimate.  Yet the same type of estimating happens every year with influenza as well, which is why we get some pretty wild variation in how many of those deaths there are.  So... which flu numbers are you comparing to which C19 numbers?  There is also the odd phenomenon of increased number or heart attacks and cardiologists wondering whether some of those are really C19, especially in males.  And again, there are other damages from C19, which may reduce life-expectancy or even cause disability.

It's just not clean, and everyone should be wary of choosing the versions that prove their point best. I will continue to kick you for that, because that is what I am here for.  I am not any kind of expert on epidemiology.  But I am pretty good at tracking down who is fighting fair.

*DuckDuckGo, actually.

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