In all the discussions about Trump and polls, there never seems to be the least discussion of libertarians. They may have swung a few states last time, and they don't seem to have anything powerful going this time around. Will they vote Trump? Stay home? I analyzed - that is,
guessed at this - last year, and took a further guess at the youth vote. I have been consistently bad at the horse-race aspect of politics. I never figure out who will vote for whom and why. But even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
I don't think actual Greens or Libertarians swung any states in 2016. That's disinformation to hid the abysmal failure of the Clinton campaign. A smaller percentage of self-identified Democrats voted for Hillary than Republicans voted for Trump, a stat that has born out over the last 3 years in Trump's approval polls. Yes, third party candidates may have gotten somewhat higher vote totals but I think that is more people who normally voted for the Democrat or GOP candidate registering protest votes.
ReplyDeleteI checked on the comments and think I was wrong about the trajectory of the Democrats. I would not be surprised to see their minority vote percentages go down next year.
For me, the Libertarians had its peak in 2016. That was supposed to be their launch as a viable party. Then they had the most libertarian convention ever, filled with weirdos, naked people, drug-obsessed dudes in fedoras. Very disappointing- this was their chance to make a big difference, and they blew it.
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