I had heard about the surprise mobilization of many thousands of Swedish Home Guard and reservists in June for an exercise responding to a hypothetical invasion by Russia of the island of Gotland. I couldn't remember ever hearing of such a thing before. I then promptly forgot about it, a great example of things not fitting the narrative and slipping away.
That is not the end of that story. I mentioned this, and Estonia's preparations, to a psychiatrist friend who is from Belarus. "When there is a bear in the woods it is a good time to practice shooting chipmunks." I was also surprised to read that 43% of Swedes favor entering NATO, with 20% unsure. A decade ago, I think it would have been a tenth of that.
In the larger picture, the population of Europe is 510 million to Russia's 144M; Europe's GDP is about $20T compared to Russia's $2T. I'm not sure why they would need us.
Not sure why? Because the Russians took over Crimea, and are dishonestly supporting rebels in Eastern Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteAnd the fat, rich, happy EU, like NATO, has been unable to push the Russians back.
If the US is unwilling to nuke Russia, and it is, then what else can the world do to stop/ punish their aggression? Primarily to support the local partisans who are boots on the ground, plus economic sanctions.
As long as Russian gas & oil are significant sources of energy for Germany and the EU, such sanctions won't really be working, tho they do help. The green Germans who want Germany dependent on Russian energy have successfully castrated the German defense.
Germany isn't in any shape to stop any Russian aggression, not even if they controlled the 10* bigger GDP EU zone (which they influence but don't even control).
Being able to get into shape, in a few months or years, is certainly NOT the same as being in shape now -- and it doesn't look like Germany or the EU is on any path towards getting into shape. All the CEE countries are aware of the Bear in the nearby woods.
And the wild boar in the many hundreds of uninhabited square kilometers around Chernobyl -- where wild animals & forest are making a comeback.
Nuclear energy is no costless solution, but should be part of it.
Not sure why? Because the Russians took over Crimea, and are dishonestly supporting rebels in Eastern Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteAnd the fat, rich, happy EU, like NATO, has been unable to push the Russians back.
If the US is unwilling to nuke Russia, and it is, then what else can the world do to stop/ punish their aggression? Primarily to support the local partisans who are boots on the ground, plus economic sanctions.
As long as Russian gas & oil are significant sources of energy for Germany and the EU, such sanctions won't really be working, tho they do help. The green Germans who want Germany dependent on Russian energy have successfully castrated the German defense.
Germany isn't in any shape to stop any Russian aggression, not even if they controlled the 10* bigger GDP EU zone (which they influence but don't even control).
Being able to get into shape, in a few months or years, is certainly NOT the same as being in shape now -- and it doesn't look like Germany or the EU is on any path towards getting into shape. All the CEE countries are aware of the Bear in the nearby woods.
And the wild boar in the many hundreds of uninhabited square kilometers around Chernobyl -- where wild animals & forest are making a comeback.
Nuclear energy is no costless solution, but should be part of it.
Although the EU has many countries all except France and Germany are just members of a trading area. The UK was never all in on the EU plan. Pre-German Reunification this all had some cohesion, but it is not well understood how much Reunification changed Germany. They had huge costs to bring the East in which pressured budgets especially for defense. Angela Merkel is from the East having grown up under communism. Her attitudes towards the Russians, international politics and defense are colored by this background.
ReplyDeleteSo unlike the old West Germany the Bundeswehr is a shadow of prior strength and Germany chases trade deals in any shady part of the world.
France is likely to be the defacto Military leader of the EU with all the baggage that brings with it.