Rasmussen

Republicans who go over to Pollster.com might get worried at first. In the current configuration, it looks like John McCain could have to win all the tossup states and still lose the presidency 270-268. For him to win, he would have to overtake Obama in some state listed as "leaning Democrat."

Be of good cheer. Rasmussen has been the most accurate predictor for quite some time, and Survey USA and Gallup have good histories. CNN/Time, Zogby Internet, and the smaller polls have much weaker records. Click through state-by-state, focus on those better polls, and when they were taken, and adjust the cute color-coded map of the US accordingly.

The site is non-partisan, BTW, and full of excellent commentary on what poll numbers really mean to professionals.

Update: Michigan has moved already.