Saturday, November 14, 2026

Power Argues With Power

And it should. We don't want powers getting along with each other.  The Founding Fathers creted a systm that required a majority rather than a coalition government for wise reasons. In Our Republic, Power Argues With Power, 

By contrast, consensus systems run on deals. Every group gets its piece: a subsidy, a spending, a regulation. Add them together, and you’ve got a system crippled by bureacracy and spending, and nobody can punish the total of it because nobody designed for the total of it.

That’s the EU in a nutshell. (It’s also what the modern Senate filibuster does. By removing the traditional filibuster mechanism of holding the floor and actually arguing, almost everything has to be bargained. And so we get those awful omnibus bills.)  

Recent Links

James had serious questions about the possible HSV-1 influence on IQ, that I linked from Aporia last week. A guest-poster at Cremieux has already jumped in with reasoning that supports James's immediate suspicions. Did Herpes Cause the Achievement Gap?

A different IQ discussion at Aporia, about Afro-Carribeans vs Indo-Carribeans in Trinidad and Tobago. 

Immigrants are almost twice as likely to start a business as their native-born peers.  Absolutely bears out in my sons and daughters-in law. Two of my Americans plus their wives have side-hustles in photography, one now dormant. The latest potential DIL (American) is trying to establish an online presence in teaching calm and wisdom - but has a regular marketing job. But the Romanians both have major side hustles, and the Filipina has the largest of all, even though they all have regular jobs.  None have done this with any kind of government loan or support for immigrants. Neither my wife nor I were ever side-hustle people, though we flirted with that at times.

Gregory Clark and the inheritance Social Status again, this time at City Journal. The association between first-degree relatives is modest, suggesting environment still has a say. But the decay of status to second, third, fourth-degree relatives is surprisingly small, suggesting that it's genes plus luck, not environment.

Clark, instead, looks at what happens as you move further out on the family tree. When one moves from siblings all the way to cousins in that same housing-value analysis, the correlation drops only modestly, to 0.21. The general rule he discovers—across many different status measures, and across several centuries notwithstanding massive changes to society and technology—is that these correlations, despite starting out at a modest level, drop by only about one-fifth with each extra degree of relatedness. (Cousins are two steps more distant than siblings in this sense.

Thus, our focus shouldn’t linger on the modest correlations among immediate family members. Those aren’t a beautiful testament to the randomness of life and the possibility of change; they’re just misleading. Rather, the very slow decay of the correlations as we move through family trees is where the action is. It reveals a “latent” status that is extremely persistent. Clark finds measurable links in status even among fourth cousins, whose shared ancestors are five generations back. 

 Seven Dudes Could Take Over Any Small Town in America  No, not at gunpoint. Just move there. An interesting counterintuitive idea that some of us have experience with. 

Friday, November 13, 2026

How to get 7th-graders to Smoke

From Seeds of Science, an article about education, research, and epistemic humility that includes most things that I have been saying about the topics for years. And saying it more engagingly (profanity alert).

How to get 7th-graders to smoke  by Adam Mastroianni. Behavioral interventions on children at school seldom work, and even more discouraging, they often make things worse. 

D.A.R.E. worked better than SMART as an anti-drug program, because at least it might have made things no worse, while the Emotions section of SMART resulted in more cigarettes, more alcohol, and more drugs.  Scared Straight and mindfulness also made things worse. Thank God they didn't try to reduce violence and teen pregnancy.  

This is also true of adults.  All programs for Republicans and Democrats to hate each other less were less effective than a 2017 Heineken commercial. I remember this, and loved it.


The problem is that our illusion of explanatory depth is so deep when it comes to human behavior that we never realize how little we understand, which prevents us from ever learning more. Nobody thinks they can whip up an iPhone in their garage over the weekend, but most people think they know how to save the children, fix the schools, reform the prisons, overhaul healthcare, repair politics, restore civility, and bring about world peace. Perhaps that’s why we have iPhones and we don’t have any of those other things. 

Terence Tao, who I mentioned recently, points out that there are lots of educational interventions that work. It's just that they only work at first, when everyone is excited for a new program and even the kids are signing on for a change from routine that they are told will make them smarter. When one scales these great ideas up, they stop working.  Huh. Wonder what's up with that. That may even be what happened with my favorite brain-development program in Daviess County KY from 1997-2010.  The initial results were encouraging, with test scores going up for 4th and 8th graders. But in the end, nothing. 

Disappointing News.

Maybe the teachers were excited and motivated, the kids thought playing chess and musical instruments was more fun than penmanship lessons, administrators signed off with hope and joy and the community all came around to cheerlead. But as three years turned into eight years turned into thirteen, everything reverted back to standard schooling energy, even with folk dancing. Maybe.  Whatever, it didn't work.

 Some of these interventions changed people’s biases in the moment, but none of the effects lasted beyond 24 hours. And of course they didn’t! As soon as participants leave the lab, they go right back into the world that massaged those biases into the folds of their brains in the first place. You can’t permanently change implicit biases with 15 minutes of screentime, just like you can’t spray someone with a hose and expect them to stay wet forever.

Curiosity

I went to my monthly lunch with my friends from St. Paul's Advanced Studies 1970. These are some of the smartest people I have ever known. MIT, Williams, Bucknell - plus graduate degrees. They are the math and chemistry mavens, I was the Theatre & Speech major at the bottom of my undergraduate class. We are all 73. One is still working, in closely-guarded Minotaur AI stuff and has to keep learning incomprehensible new things for his job - but his exit is in sight. The others are now all hobbies, travel, humor, and pontificating. I sort of get it.

I keep bringing and sending interesting things to them.  Today is was Tyler Cowan's interview with Terence Tao. Paragraph after paragraph of fascinating concepts. New takes on old subjects.  Introductions to new subjects. Deep humility from a child prodigy who is now 51, perhaps the greatest living mathematician. None were interested.  Okay, it is old friends talking, and I am as much a nostalgist as any of them, or more. I have tried these high-concept things before, seldom with success - or never. I usually just send along the link after, because these things are just so fascinating, that how could they not...

But never a comment, never a followup - I doubt that they read them, on any subject. To me it seems that their lives have narrowed, gotten smaller. But...but...they are smarter than I am.  How did this happen at the tender age of 73?  I think of other groups of smart old people, of which I am in many and see the same pattern. They may have some interest in developments in their own field, but little outside of it. I don't try to be curious about new things. That is one of the bits of advice that Weird Trick businesses tell you about staving off Alzheimer's: Learn new things! Pick up a musical instrument.  Learn a new language.  Do crossword puzzles. None of those things have any causative effect, BTW.  They are only associations. People who are dementing gradually stop picking up new instruments. You can't force it, same as with exposing children to a wide range of cognitive skills, which looks like it should work, but doesn't.

It was always this way. I was math/folksinger in highschool. I switched from math to theater to medieval literature in college.  I spent my career in mental health, and early only, applied to divinity school, took course for an MSW, and I swear there was some other subject I looked at grad school for.  If I had to do over, I would major in evolutionary psychology and writing, but with an eye toward making a living in sports statistics, which was up and coming them. But most likely, if I had to do over again I would find some seventh thing to concentrate on and switch to.  Early computer games, maybe. Historical linguistics.

I have been moderately proud of this over the years, but also aware that there is more dilettante than Renaissance Man about this. Over the last decade, I have become even more suspicious of it. It is quite involuntary, like a dog distracted by smells. Curiosity is something I have, not something I pursue. My friends are more likely to be right than I am.  Picking up something new has what use, in the end?  Who benefits? Just a previously useful tendency, likely squandered, now gone rogue.  I think it still has entertainment value. Distribution of knowledge, not so much. 

Here, have an almond cluster that used to be popular in the late 1700s. Take two, they're small. The word for them comes from Arabic via Italian...

Thursday, November 12, 2026

12 Things

 12 Things Everyone Should Know About Their Emotions A guest post at N3 by Evolutionary Psychologist Rob Kurzban

8. Admiration is for learning.
Admiration feels like an emotion that’s directed at other people. And in some sense, it is. But admiration’s job is actually all about you. Humans everywhere face a crucial adaptive problem: They have to learn from other people to succeed wherever they find themselves, whether in the arid heat of a desert, the frozen winds of the tundra, or the city streets of Bangalore. A key part of solving that problem is figuring out who, specifically, to learn from. Admiration does this job, directing our attention to the people who have succeeded, so we can learn the secrets of their success.

Right on schedule, Razib just dropped a podcast interview with him.  When people have a book come out, they make the rounds of podcasts, as they used to do with radio and TV shows.  And bookstores, which I think still do that, at least for local authors.

Commenter Earl Wajenberg has a book just about to come out, but I don't have a podcast to bring him on.  Maybe we can find one.  We'll keep you posted. 

Monday, November 09, 2026

Beg, Borrow, and Steal

 White people getting down again.  Always a favorite for me.


Charlie's Boys

My grandfather Carl (upper right) and his brothers in Lower East Pubnico, Nova Scotia, in 1934. His father, Charles Seward Wyman (not pictured) was a blueberry farmer who ran the general store. 5'4" and the only man in town who could pick up a railroad tie unassisted, or so the story goes.  Probably an exaggeration a lie, but told convincingly. That's who we are.

Carl had moved to Massachusetts in the early 20s because of some epidemic in NS. He was out hunting with a MicMac friend when he got word not to go home, but go live with his uncle in Peabody, MA... temporarily. He was living in Jamaica Plains by this time above, and working as a chauffeur at North Station in Boston, where he drove such luminaries as Henry Cabot Lodge II, who treated him well, and Calvin Coolidge, who didn't.  Cheap bastard, he said. About this time he was building his first home in Westford, MA, which the bank later foreclosed on in the Depression.  But banks had learned it was better to absorb the losses and ride it out when Grandpa Wyman built his second one in 1936, a Cape Codder that is still standing on Greenwood Dr, off Rt 27 near the South Chelmsford and Acton borders. He was the egg man for Chelmsford and West Lowell even up until the time I visited in the 60's.  Maybe into the 70s. Grew lots of strawberries as well.  My father once remarked in admiration that he had no enemies, which neither he nor I could say.

Very strong Coastal New England accent, which is how I knew that it extended up that far when I first read Hans Kurath in college.  Didn't talk that much, but I remember him saying Ayuh! Ayuh! with a smile at just about anything I said. That's all a grandson asks for, really.

SNL

 The algorithm often feeds you not what they have discerned you like, but what lots of people have liked.  "SNL destroys Trump in Cold Open over Midterms."

SNL is the original OnlyFans.  For those of you watching at home... 

One Link Per Site

I have essay sites I try to keep up with, sometimes reading a post closely, sometimes skimming a few posts. I recommend all of these in general, but decided to pick one from each to make things a little simpler.  I have so many these days, and I'm sure you do too. And I do not even need to be smart anymore, or at least not informed.

I will scrape the October and November links from Astral Codex Ten separately. 

Unsupervised Learning, with Razib Khan.  To Have and Have Not: Genetic Determinants of Social Status. This is Gregory Clark being his usual controversial self. It is only part of the podcast, and you have to be a subscriber to read a copy, but it is about a half-hour, rather than the usual 12-min preview that Razib does. Clark runs the numbers for centuries of England, but the work has replicated in Denmark and Sweden.

Anthropologist John Hawks. Among the bonobos, it is the females who hunt, not the males. This was very unexpected.

Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche Across 6 million subjects in 118 countries, women experience more pain of all kinds than men. So there.

Exhibit Asterisk Your Lying Eyes.  What magicians teach us about persuasion.

Rob Henderson. Women have become more likely to marry men with less education than them.  In fact, it started happening slowly two decades ago.

David Foster. What, Precisely, Is the Issue With "Elites?'

Steve Sailer  Sailer takes issue with Richard Hanania (who I find more tiresome every day myself) about Indians vs. Israelis. Only the first part is free, but it's got some interesting thoughts in it.

The Age of Arthur by Bernard Mees Who Was Sir Mordred?

Data Republican. Power Argues With Power Just Wow. She has reportedly been identified.  Does she live in New England? She would be welcome here.

Cremieux Recueil He seems to gravitate to mythbusting and counterintuitive knowledge.  Well, Bully for him, then.  Obesity and Poverty Part II Everything you thought you knew is not supported by the data.

Aporia  A challenge to the genetic origin of racial differences in IQ, based on the HSV-1 Hypothesis.  Way over my head, but what I can understand looks like it has something to it.  I will try to be alert to what people smarter than me say about this.

Dead Language Society. What is the AI Accent, and why do we hate it?

In the To Be Continued category.  David Reich has put forward a speculative (for him) preprint about the erosion of the Out-of-Africa hypothesis.  I had thought it was solid. Apparently not. The idea is we have many more Eurasian ancestors, but the out-of-Africa population from 50K y/a brought improvements to enough important genes that it out-competed the Eurasians within the process of interbreeding, not by eliminating them.  It is similar to the idea of explaining "What happened to the Neanderthals/Denisovans?" by claiming that We are the Neanderthals/Denisovans! The O-O-A population interbred with us, bringing better stuff. We remained, but their genes gradually increased in us, so that thousands of years later it looks like they lived and we died. No, we just captured their best genes and kept on living throughout Eurasia.  Not at all what I expected. 

I could probably afford more subscriptions, but I just don't have the time.  When would I daydream? When would I obsess over my terrible fantasy football teams? When would I get irritated waiting for the dog to poop? Not to mention shopping and cooking, going down the rabbit holes of maps, going to doctor's appointments, doing PT exercises and learning my anthems? 

 

Bad Data is Good Data

Bethany's old statistics site was "Bad Data, Bad!" a wonderful title. No one wants misbehaving data. The claim is that one can lie with statistics, but I have always felt that if you grab them by the collar, shove them against the wall, and make them tell you who their friends are, you can get the truth out of them.

But even bad data can be informative. If the same bad data keeps being brought forward in an argument, it tells you that they have nothing better. The joke in Russia during WW2 and the invasion by Germany was that "We are winning glorious victory after glorious victory - a little closer to Moscow every day." Gun control is full of these sorts of arguments. If you purchase a gun for your house, the most likely person to be killed by it is a family member. Well, yes. This is like the Burns and Allen routine where Gracie is reading the paper and says to George "It says here that most accidents occur within five miles of home." He pauses and says, "That sounds about right." Gracie pauses even longer and then says "Gee, do you think we should move?"

The majority of school shootings involve guns. Hmm, yes. The majority of school stabbings involve knives, bombings involve bombs, arson involves fire, etc.  There are fewer shootings in Europe, because guns are outlawed. They do still have people driving vans into crowds in Christmas markets, however. Lots of fires these days. Plus, they do have some shootings anyway. They didn't used to so much, but the numbers went down long before the laws changed. As with New England, they would commit various crimes, but homicide didn't tend to be one of them.  This is changing, both there and here.  I wonder why?

America has a high crime rate and a high incarceration rate. This is supposed to show that we are locking people up to much and making them criminals. Yet what happens when the incarceration rate goes up? Does crime go up?  No, it goes down. Fancy that. Maybe it's about something other than our incarceration rate driving crime, then.  Maybe the incarceration rate is fine. There are lots of nominations what else it might be, but first, first, we send incarceration to the back of the line for the moment.

I keep seeing the same genetics vs environment arguments. The same heresies keep coming up in the church every century, with different branding. Everyone whoever went to school is an expert on education, all bringing up the same bad ideas over and over. (And don't think teachers are exempt from believing theories without evidence.  They may in fact be worse than anyone. Except administrators, right, I forgot. And Ed School professors may be worst of all, worse even than overinvolved parents.) 

I would like to give everyone something encouraging about what to do about this life of playing whack-a-mole. I don't have anything. I am not quite like Cassandra, because I am not always right, but I completely get how maddening her life must have been. I don't know how to defeat this. Reasoning doesn't work.  Bullying doesn't work. Bribery doesn't work. The promise of being one of the very few In The Know sort of works for a while, but it's impossible to keep up with. I see, and I understand, but all my actions make things worse. I remind myself that people pay money to play whack-a-mole, and I must just have that gene - or more likely, collection of genes that each create some 1% tendency toward whacking moles, even though I rather like moles in the wild. I don't fancy bullying or bribery.  I pretend I am reasoning.

Too Many

 I have been so inundated with posts that I decided to do a links post of my own, with one piece for each of them - Exhibit Asterisk, Razib Khan, and the rest.  It is close to finished. Often it was hard to choose. But over at Grim's it was impossible. The first three out of just the usual fare all insisted on being in the collection.  I stopped there.  You need to make him a habit.

Tolkien's own tune for the Dwarves' song at the beginning of The Hobbit about smashing the plates. Marvelous!  I didn't know it even existed!

And in true Tolkien fashion, Grim looks out at recent changes in the possible struggles we have before us and concludes that what is needed is courage. To Make Peace, To Make War. 

Thomas Doubting comments thoughtfully on Grim's essays on Epitectus, asking whether it is true that our body is not our own, and what the consequences of that are. 

Sunday, November 08, 2026

Parental Behaviors and Childhood Aggression

What I have been saying, from Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche. We have long assumed that how we parent has a large effect on children. Meh. Remember that parents contribute genes long before, and genes hang around in the child much longer, not to mention 24/7/365. 

Inconsistent parental discipline is linked to greater aggression in children. But does the former cause the latter? It seems not. A new behavior-genetics paper finds that much of the link is due to genetic confounding: The same gene variants associated with inconsistent parental discipline are also linked to childhood aggression. Moreover, to the extent that the link is environmental, it seems that children’s aggression leads to inconsistent discipline, rather than the other way around. 

(Link) 

Wednesday, November 04, 2026

Gas Prices

How much of "We are hurting, we are struggling, the president (any president) is ruining our lives" boils down to gas prices, which people see every day on big signs? There is the claim that it's housing costs, but those were a little higher a couple of years ago. People point to groceries, but there was a lot of wailing and general brouhaha about eggs not so long ago and eggs are back down, as predicted. Milk is the same. Hamburg is still up, maybe that is the impression-leader. We have an expensive war, but not in terms of American lives, and the same could be said of Ukraine, Venezuela, etc. It's not really driving prices higher, except for the very noticeable gas prices, which will be temporary.

I am not at all claiming that this is uniquely unfair to Republicans.  It has been true all my life, though perhaps more true now. It makes no sense, as the price is volatile in response to many circumstances that are ignored. But otherwise sensible people seem to be easily convinced that "Gas prices are up = the economy is bad" regardless of what else is happening. I think it is visibility, both in terms of signage and in terms of how often we purchase it. Memories are short, also.  I remember a FB post from about 2015 extolling President Obama for bringing gas prices down. But he still holds the record for inflation-adjusted at $5.08 in 2012. The prices we see are mostly about inflation.  The ultra-cheap prices of $0.36/gal in 1970?  $2.96 now. 

It makes me crazy. 

Monday, November 02, 2026

Voting For Nice People

I am very suspicious of nice people in positions of power.  This shows up often in local elections, where you know that Samantha is a jerk and Charles is a stuffed shirt and their opponents are nice women who volunteer at the schools (and so supposedly know what's going on there) and have sons who made Eagle Scout this year or whatever. I am slightly inclined to vote against such people. They choose their positions on the basis of niceness, because it is important to them. They like other nice people and programs which sound like they should do good things for people who deserve good things being done for them, with no supporting data whatsoever.

They are the most easily swayed by other Nice People.

This is not a suggestion that you should actively seek out jerks. It might be a suggestion that you give a second look (but never a third) to the weird people. 

The practical people are little better, if at all. They are too easily swayed by charlatans who are not nice but put up the banners of how great this would be if it were true.  The name Elizabeth Holmes may come to mind here.

If, if, and if.

There is an analog to the discussion going on over at Grim's about treason. Most of us grew up in good times in nice places and the idea of treason in out schoolbooks - even out college textbooks - was right out.  We could trust the government at least that much, that it shouldn't be overthrown. Plus, the overthrowing people were clearly lying and playing a secret hand. Well, sure. Usually you don't have to examine the core premises that closely. The good guys are 80% good and the bad guys are 80% bad, let's go to Disney World and not think about it. But when we get down to 60-40, it can become situation by situation, issue by issue, region by region. "Treason" turns out to be one of those things where we say "It depends."

So too with nice people and practical people.  First, assume that neither is neither, though they at least want to be.  Only then can you move forward. The ambiguities of local elections are not a distraction, they actually highlight the real national problem. Eschew niceness.  Eschew practicality. 

Sunday, November 01, 2026

My Name Is Jack Hall

The American version has it as Sam Hall, with similar lyrics about a man going to be hung. "And my neck shall pay for all." Johnny Cash had the more humorous version, though grimly so.


 

Campaigns

So one candidate for Senate is claiming that the other worked for a lobbying firm and that lobbying firm made lots of money. In reply, the lobbyist is accusing the first candidate of voting in a way that the companies of guys he dated probably liked.

That's it.  That's what passes for corruption in NH.  

Stuart the Just

Reposted from 2025.  Substack has fewer knuckleheaded conversations than other social media sites, but it still has them.  I find I am linking to this at least once a week when someone is trying to claim "I was just asking a clarifying question, which you still haven't answered..." 

It must hit a nerve, because it has received a lot of hits in only 13 months. 

******** 

My father-in-law used to joke that his mother called him Stuart the Just, because he was always saying "But I was just...But I was just..." We have variations in English: "We were only..." "She was merely..." "All I asked was..." When people use these phrases, they are often hiding something. No, Stuart you weren't just looking in your sister's toybox to see what was there. No, Ingrid, she wasn't only dropping by to chat. No, you weren't merely looking on your wife's phone to see if her mother had called yet. 

I have been on a run for motte-and-bailey arguments lately.  I have a few more coming. This is mostly because I am currently alert to them, but I hope to perform some instructive service along the way, saturating the summer of 2025 with examples and commentary. 


I don't want to get too bogged down in the castles themselves, though this is an attractive picture that's fun to spend some time on.  Analogies break down if you stretch them too far, but this illustration allows us to extend the idea just a bit.  The motte is the most defensible place.  It was often built first on an elevated area, which provides in itself some defensive advantage. In some descriptions the motte is the mound itself, and the keep is the fortified area. 

Once the motte is in place it makes sense to live near it in case of emergencies. Outbuildings would spring up for stables, work areas, and housing.  These in turn would be fortified as time and resources allowed.  In the illustration above, there is an expanding series of baileys, and outside the moat there are plenty of fields for pasture and planting. The motte is extending its influence over an entire area. The whole enterprise expanded in stages and can be defended in stages. 

In rhetoric or argument, a set of ideas can extend their influence over wider and wider areas. If you have a constitution and laws, a group can start from something quite basic, quoting "the Constitution says this," and be on safe ground. Not long after, they are saying "the Constitution also means this," expanding the idea out a little farther.  If everyone goes along, it becomes a fortified place of its own. The expansion goes fine until someone says "Hey, this isn't the Duchy of Toulouse anymore.  You are encroaching into the Duchy of Aquitaine.  Stop that." If Aquitaine attacks with enough force, Toulouse falls back to an area it thinks it can defend. Unfenced fields are tough to keep enemies out of.

In the motte-and-bailey fallacy, what is usually the problem is the discovery that Toulouse has been encroaching into Aquitaine for a long time.  It has been claiming lots of territory that isn't theirs, and Aquitaine quickly acquires some allies who say "Dagnabbit! Toulouse has been cheating. None of this has been theirs and they must be punished." Toulouse goes all the way back to the motte if necessary, saying "THIS IS OURS. You can't accuse us of lying and cheating.  We own this."

From here we are going to the situation of "But we we're only quoting what the Bible says," because being deceitful about that "only" is a big deal.

Friday, October 30, 2026

Trepanantion

 I didn't know I was interested in this until I started reading. Why Global Trepanation? by Scott Alexander at ACX.

Was it cultural diffusion? No. Trepanation (the technical term for drilling a hole in the skull) was common across Europe and South America, with scattered cases in Africa and other continents. The Old and New Worlds had limited contact after about 10,000 BC, and most customs don’t survive for five thousand plus years with no reason. 

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Late Flurry in 2015

I thought this set of links would wrap up the year, but I seem to like a lot of what I wrote in the last 45 days of 2015. In 2016 we enter the Age of Trump*, or at least the foothills. The NH Primary is early in the election year, so we were already hearing a lot of him even though he would not take office until 2017.

What's HAPPENIN' in Social Justice, about fashionability of causes. 

English Is Not Normal.  John McWhorter, refreshingly uncontroversial

Contrast Between Liberal Bias and Conservative Bias  

Odd Explanations For the Suicides of Men 45-54  By professionals working with them.

Wondering About Immigration into Europe that year  

*I got tired of that phrase pretty quickly. 

English's Closest Relatives

 Test yourself how well you can read a familiar text in Scots, West Frisian, and Low German. Can You Understand English's Closest Relatives? The Lord's Prayer is often used for such examples, as readers are familiar with it. Heh. Used to be, anyway. I would add Old English 

 Fæder ure þu þe eart on heofonum, si þin nama gehalgod. to becume þin rice, gewurþe ðin willa, on eorðan swa swa on heofonum. urne gedæghwamlican hlaf syle us todæg, and forgyf us ure gyltas, swa swa we forgyfað urum gyltendum. and ne gelæd þu us on costnunge, ac alys us of yfele soþlice.

And Middle English to the quiz for comparison, 

 Oure fadir þat art in heuenes halwid be þi name; þi reume or kyngdom come to be. Be þi wille don in herþe as it is dounin heuene. yeue to us today oure eche dayes bred. And foryeue to us oure dettis þat is oure synnys as we foryeuen to oure dettouris ÅŸat is to men þat han synned in us. And lede us not into temptacion but delyuere us from euyl.

For Old English (Anglo-Saxon) and Middle English both, it will help if you know that the "þ" is a thorn, "ð" is a eth, and both are pronounced "th," as in thee/thine. For Middle English, "u" is sometimes pronounced v, and "y" is sometimes pronounced hard g.

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Three From Lyman Stone

 Are 3-Child Families a Luxury Good? Lyman really doesn't like the Survey of Consumer Finances as a Statistical Source.

Babies Are Not For Cowards  I noticed years ago that people with more optimism about the future had more children.  Apparently this is international

What Census Was Luke Talking About?  If you are a demographer and a Christian you look at different questions than the usual.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Recent links

 Smart People Love New Ideas, Even When They Are Bad.  Rob Henderson. Some people just like novelty too much.  "Sometimes the old solution has been around a long time because it works." 

Smart Therapist  Therapy works best when it is life coaching.

Pink-Washing Patriarchy I do not usually trend much to this topic, but this was interesting.

How Many People Live Paycheck to Paycheck?   One can find all kinds of big numbers for this and its companion that most people cannot afford at $400 or $1000 emergency bill. Guess what? 

Committed Leftists Are Not Just "Very Liberal"

Those Tradwives, eh?

 Fred felt neglected because Wilma spent so much time on TV


 

Monday, October 26, 2026

Education and Prejudice

 Does Education Make Us More Prejudiced? 

It depends. The story is usually that college makes young people more liberal, but it would be more accurate to say that it makes liberals more anti-conservative, and conservatives more anti-liberal.  The effect is stronger depending on the strength of belief. Moderates don't seem to move much at all.

Bible Study Analogies

I have described my dislike of many Bible study guides, especially their questions. "Where have you seen God at work in your life this week? What can you do to notice more of this?"  These are not gripping questions. Analogies and metaphors work better.  You will notice, BTW, that his is how Jesus taught, and he may have known a thing or two.

Psalms 3-7* were part of our sermon series and discussion this week. Our class study guide included the summary of those " Which of the five rooms are you in this season — the flight, the sleepless night, the watched morning, the bottom, the hunt?"

Hebrews comments on that. Our study summarises  "Your kingdom, Dallas Willard said, is the
range of your effective will — the kitchen, the desk, the hospital bed — and it was never meant to compete with God's, only to be joined to it."  It goes on to ask "Which kingdom is yours this month — the cubicle, the kitchen table, the hospital bed?"

Those are better questions. 

 

AI Uses

I am trying to clear space in one cupboard.  "Which will go bad first, fish sauce or oyster sauce?" Fish sauce even after opening will last 3-5 years.  Oyster sauce should be refrigerated after opening (oops) and will last 3-6 months.  

Thank you.

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Thank This Engine of Advancement

 Humans Are Flourishing More Than Ever. Washington Post.

 Journalist Matt Ridley wrote that, in the two generations from 1955 to 2005, “the average human being on Planet Earth earned nearly three times as much money (corrected for inflation), ate one-third more calories of food, buried one-third as many of her children and could expect to live one-third longer.”

The United States, in particular, has experienced strong growth. From 1970 to 2024, inflation-adjusted household income has increased from $59,000 to almost $84,000. Lower-income households have seen gains of roughly 35 percent during that same period, and educational opportunities have expanded.

Quite different from what one sees on social media these days.

Humans have a tendency to remember good times rather than bad, and thus idealise the past. I wonder why?  It seems to make us less happy in the present and more pessimistic about the future. Like the Ukrainian woman who remembered that there was always enough food under Stalin, not like when she was interviewed in the 1950s, we are quite certain life was better in the old days. The food was tastier, the girls were prettier, and kids knew how to apply themselves and understood the value of a dollar.

I often think of Garrison Keillor's line that we believe life was simpler then, because we were children, and out lives were looked after by others.  But it wasn't simpler for them.  In fact, it was harder. Why do we find this so impossible to believe? 

Why Evangelicalism is Winning

 Ross Douthat writing in the Free Press. I think he summarises very well, for me capturing both my admiration and suspicion for a brand of Christianity that I am forever half-in, half out of. One point he captures more accurately than I have before seen, is the defense against the accusation that evangelicalism is theocratic. That has always just plain rung false to me, yet the evidence critics bring forward for that idea has always had much truth in it. I have not countered the charge well. Douthat does.

 Evangelical political engagement is more likely to be defensive than controlling or incipiently theocratic.

Yes, this. Evangelicalism is not theocratic, but it is defensive, the great destroyer of all the other claimants to (theo)cracies that pretend to not be religions. As an overly-flexible, cliche-ridden faith, it knows another religion when it sees one, however many veils those may dance behind. The princess detects the pea under a dozen mattresses. Wokeness, politicised liberal Christianity, Country-Over-God, the Gospel of Nice, the Big Guy Upstairs, the Pale Galilean, All-Faiths-the-Same, the Inherited God, the Good Persons, Somber Churchiness, the God of Funerals - all of these are cut to earth by the Evangelicals more quickly than by other brands. Each of these small gods is bitter against the diagnostic X-Ray that is evangelicalism.

Cross-posted at Substack 

Recent Links

There are so many from The Free Press.  I think you should just check in on them without my prompting at this point. I put in two at the end.

Technology, Decentralization and Recentralization David Foster. Communication decentralised with the internet, but is now recentralising. Probably not good.

Two From Works in Progress  

What caused the end of the Bronze Age? The puzzle has never been the collapse. Collapse of civilizations happen all the time. That level of organisation is a fragile thing.  But why did nothing rise again for centuries? This is a good theory.

Mosquitos are a Choice  I do get suspicious when people say "If we only had the courage." 

I love N3's thinking, even when it is on subjects I care little about. Dinosaurs that evolved ultra-high intelligence. My first thought was "Yeah, compared to other dinosaurs.  Big Whoop." I am not a subscriber and don't have access to the rest of the story.  But even in a few sentences - yeah, that's a good point.

Max Spero of AI-detector Pangram - who awaits the threatened lawsuits eagerly, because he is certain he can hold his ground.

I think the work that we’re doing is really prosocial,” he said. “The future that I’m working toward is a world where people value humanity and we find an inherent value in words or content from humans, even if Claude could have said the same things better.

A follow up to that:  The Last Essay

Saturday, October 24, 2026

Late Harvest

 These are always the last harvest of the season.

Not really a cash crop, more like cash transfer.  I suppose not much else grows on such marginal land by the side of the road.

Theo of Golden

Book club is discussing Theo of Golden tonight. I have read a few chapters and fear that my dominant conversational style will push out others who know more - even though the the others are predominantly university professors.* I may not go tonight. I do not think this will hasten or retard the Second Coming.

His name is Theo.  He arrives at Easter. The town is called Golden.  He is clearly a quiet elite who is encouraging to the common people. What I have read is charming. Got it? I think it is likely to be heartwarming, but because it appeals to many moderns it must have some ambiguity and complexity to it. I don't fault that, because that pretty much describes Tolkien and Lewis's heroic fiction, doesn't it?  And they are the foundation of so much of my emotional, cultural, spiritual, and moral outlook that I should hesitate to reject any echo of that...correct?

Yeah, maybe not. Among my wife, my son, and my daughter-in-law I think they will have these things covered.  

*They are generous and affirming, which probably encourages me too much. But my career was largely explaining mental health law to lawyers who thought they could bully me; systems to other agencies; or practical mental health to OneSky psychologists, etc. Even when I'm wrong I can lay down a marker. But that strength is a weakness in book discussions, isn't it?

Color Revolution Updates

Grim has been covering the CIA/USAID (and possibly Soros network?) plots to foment a color revolution.

In America. 

This is commentary on the DataRepublican expose, including video of what has been said by both retired and active members of government about declaring our government illegitimate, giving reason to ignore constitutional protections. It is as chilling an account about the future of the Republic as I have read. These are people who very much know what they are doing, as they have done it before in other countries.

I don't usually link to an ongoing series.  In fact, I don't think I ever have.  

 Warning Shots

Warning Shots Confirmed 

Friday, October 23, 2026

Charming

 

This is exactly the sort of muscle control that I do not have. I am always impressed.

This is Oleg and Natalya Kiryushin, BTW 

Deer

What do you call a deer with two eyes?

Diir.

What do you call a deer with three eyes? 

Seymour

What do you call a deer with no eyes?

No idear 

Organised Skepticism

This refers to #4 of  Robert K Merton and the Mertonian Norms. I am focusing here only on organised skepticism, which Jerry Z Muller brought up in an Unsupervised Learning podcast.  It is the idea that the academic disciplines, both science and humanities, rely not only on skepticism to move forward, but a whole structure of it.  One learns to think in terms of what the critics might say and begin to defend against it.  A thesis is defended against some who will be unsympathetic. Publishing will be reviewed by your opponents. In this way, one is supposed to do a lot of the intellectual discussing in one's own head before putting it out to the world as a further understanding of the truth. Muller believes this is being lost and in some fields has already vanished.


Evangelising For Theism

The topic is going to eventually be that CS Lewis's fiction evangelises for monotheism, and even for simple theism far more than he evangelises for Christianity in specific.  But I will wander about the meadow telling you how I got here first.

********* 

Where have my Jews gone? They made up a good percentage of my friends at work and before that in school, plus a smattering in town activities and businesses I went to. But I'm not at work, I don't go to town functions, and the volunteer work I do doesn't seem to attract them. A lot of my going out is for church-related functions. I am just noticing it now because of Jews coming back into my life: a recent high school reunion, my new friend Rivka on one of my zoom calls, and a childhood friend I tracked down. You don't know what you've got till it's gone...*

One of the reasons it's important is it's a way of mentally checking your work. For the twenty years of my blog it is an automatic exercise to think What are the women in my generation going to think of that idea?  Will they have a counter? What would a bright, decent Millennial make of that phrasing? I wonder what my grandfather would have thought? Does that sound insulting to people who chose that profession? Until recently, that included "Would Frank or David or Esther challenge that?" especially on religious questions. I keep a lot of religious groups in mind when I write, anticipating both what their intellectual and their emotional reaction might be. It goes by pretty quickly at this point.  It's well-worn territory.

It came to mind because I quoted CS Lewis to one friend and realised I had no idea what her familiarity with him is.  Two things I saw: Even though my motto is "The solution to everything is to read more CS Lewis," I had never given or even recommended one of his books to a Jewish friend; however, I would quote him to them or put quotes in an online context where I knew many Jews would be reading, because in isolation, there was nothing that would offend.  It would be a general spiritual understanding as applicable to Jews as to Christians.

That was a fun puzzle. Noticing such things and asking "Well, why do I do that?" is something I find fascinating, not frightening. I have learned that most others find it intimidating. I mentally ran through the list of the scores of books by Lewis. I remembered also the series on Pints With Jack of Lewis fans who were outside our usual boundaries: an Eastern Orthodox priest relating his fondness for Lewis's writing; a Benedictine monk; an atheist who had a whole site devoted to atheists who loved Lewis; a Jew who who likewise had a site of other Jewish fans of Jack; a Mormon, a Bahai, a spiritualist - which is ironic since Lewis had such cutting things to say about them, having dabbled in the occult himself as a young man.

I remembered also that the serious Humanist and Effective Altruist Scott Alexander of Astral Codex Ten wrote admiringly and knowledgeably about GK Chesterton, and detailed his intense examination of Lewis's case for Christianity and said "He almost convinced me." Lewis's popularity outside of Western Christian circles has been hiding in plain sight. Tolkien, we knew. Even though LOTR is deeply Catholic, that is disguised, almost subterranean. But Lewis seemed more overt. 

What follows took only a few minutes.  It is not something I have been mulling for weeks or months, nor is what follows. Yet once the lock has been picked, the contents of the room are easy to see.

*******

Here we go then. People outside of Christian circles have likely heard of Lewis in either of two ways: his fiction or his literary work. For the latter, it is mostly late collegiate or even graduate students who are most familiar with "An Introduction to Paradise Lost," "An Experiment in Criticism," Vol 5 of the Oxford History of English Literature,**  The Discarded Image, "Hamlet: The Prince or the Poem," and many others. His secular audience seldom sees that much of his advantage here is not only that he believes and understands the theology, but that he is Medieval and Renaissance in spirit himself, and thus a native of these lands, seeing no boundary between them. It is worth noting that he was one of, if not the authority on that period in his and his influence lasts even until now, while most of the others have vanished beneath the waves.

The general audience knows him more from his fiction, especially the Narnia Chronicles or their movies. The biggest specifically Christian hurdle is from The Lion the Witch and The Wardrobe, the first and most famous of the series in which death and resurrection are central to the plot, and that alone may keep Jews or the generally unsympathetic from exploring further. In the rest of the series, the position of Aslan as the second person of the Trinity is more backgrounded. It is there in full color of orthodoxy, but it it is explanatory and descriptive, central to the full understanding but not the plot.  I learned this from the atheist guest on the podcast who noted that the stories are simply good stories in the Western Tradition, and he would skim the Jesus-ness to keep riding the story. (Which Lewis would consider a victory.) Last Battle owes a good deal to Daniel and other prophets, not just the Revelation to John.  It was the Israelites who were first informed that the whole of creation is coming to an end some day and reoriented their thinking around that. Everyone else on the planet remained in seasonal or circular time. The Jews made the cycles helical. Dawn Treader has acres of Christian symbolism in it, but even most Christians miss that. The Horse and His Boy owes much to Joseph in Egypt; The Magician's Nephew is a reworking of Adam and the Fall; The Silver Chair is the OT histories in mythic form. 

In the Ransom Trilogy it is the unfallen nature of Mars versus fallen Earth, the Silent Planet, followed by Perelandra's fall hanging in the balance. The last book is about the origins of good and evil power. It is deeply Christian, but not to the exclusion of Judaism. Similarly, Screwtape has some starkly Christian declarations, but contextualised to 20th C Anglican England.  It could be recast in Israel without much trouble.  The Great Divorce uses imagined Heaven, Hell, and Purgatory which are not central to Jewish theology, but the spiritual battles are all monotheistic: will you surrender to God or not? Till We Have Faces uses polytheistic, almost animist elements to tell its Christian lessons, and as in Tolkien, no Jesus appears.

I thought I would spend time on his philosophical works, in which his Christian belief is not directly present, except by intuition, but I think I will leave those alone. The Abolition of Man, The Problem of Pain, Miracles, and even The Pilgrim's Regress make the case for monotheism and specifically Judaism long before Christianity is even mentioned. This reflects his own long conversion, from teenage atheism to indeterminate theism by 1929, to monotheism in 1930 and only at the end of 1931 “When we [Warnie and Jack] set out [by motorcycle to the Whipsnade Zoo] I did not believe that Jesus Christ was the Son of God, and when we reached the zoo I did.”  But however widely applicable they could be, they are mostly read only by Christians these days. One would think that Mere Christianity would be more overt, but here again he is very methodical, pointing out to the reader at the end of a chapter that we have only dismantled materialism thus far, and said nothing about any religion...then we have only established a somethingism here...then we have eliminated dualism and weakened polytheism...and well along in the text before we are left with a God of some definite Personality, not a life-force or a repeated cycle... It is Jewish long before it is Christian.

Most Western Jews are already used to living in a world where their POV is an influence but not a controlling one.  They seem to navigate around that and understand the culture anyway.  Lewis, for all his Christ-specific theology, can travel on the road with them much longer than Shakespeare, Voltaire, and nearly every 19th and 20th C intellectual.

I never saw it. 

Enjoy. Reading more CS Lewis is the solution to everything.

I will cross post this on Substack 

 

*  I went on medication for Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder in the 1980s, yet did not notice that one of the things that stopped was my automatic imagining of spoonerisms (which fortunately, I did not say aloud).  Only when I stopped the medication a few years later did I notice I was again reflexively thinking "keys and parrots" for "peas and carrots" or looking at the Market Basket sign and thinking Barket Masket. Every damn time.

** This took twenty years.  He referred to it by pronouncing its initials, OHEL. 

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Quiet Time

Evangelicals have something of a rule about scheduling a Quiet Time every day. In the discussion, they often will point to the many times that Jesus went to a quiet place to pray. Yet notice that these do not say the prayer time was quiet, only that the place was quiet, which I am assuming means free from distraction. Being both God and Man, distraction was a possibility, and he provided a demonstration of how to minimise that.  What are the few times we get to listen in on Jesus's time with God?  Gethsemane, certainly. Even though it is a quiet place, it doesn't seem like a quiet time to me.  Luke, the physician, records that his sweat became like drops of blood. That doesn't sound like doing breath work, centering, or resting in God at all.

Jesus invited a couple of his disciples to come up on the mountain with him and the sky exploded with ancient prophets. They did not respond by murmuring how peaceful it all was. Maybe time with God is supposed to be dramatic, not near-somnolent. Heaven sounds pretty noisy as well, what little we are told about it. It is described as being like a wedding reception, which is not usually anyone's idea of a rest. I find I have to go outside and away from everyone at those, frankly.

What about that still, small voice talking to Elijah? I think it pays to look at the context in 1 King 19. 


 

For debate: trying to "get quiet" in a place rather than going to a quiet place to meet God is actually an evasion of God.  

Release the hounds. 

Household Tasks

Grim sees a category error in the debate about husbands and wives and household chores. It is not a fun national discussion, because it assumes that Anna and Bob's arrangement is up for criticism by Carol and/or Daniel.

When we became Christians in the 1970s (according to our accounting then - my theology is different now) it was a shocking idea for this Congregationalist who went to an Ivy-wannabee college that I was supposed to have spiritual headship over my wife and and automatically be in charge of the household. Even more surprising were the frequent directions of what that entailed and how I should do it.

But somewhere in the first year it occurred to me: if I am the head of my household, why do these other guys keep telling me what to do? It was a liberating thought. Fifty years later, we have the tasks divided in a fairly traditional arrangement. But not entirely, and it suits us. You wanna make something of it, Mac?

 

Margaret Ball

I was in a Zoom bookclub with author Margaret Ball until she left for medical reasons a few months ago.  Her husband Steve Zoraster still attends. His patents and publications should give an idea where is thinking is. Her interests were more varied, as one can see from her books and articles.

She long preceded me in the book club, but I think I shared the space with her for almost three years. She was quite clever and funny, generous to the ideas of others, and clearly both smarter and more disciplined that I. She died this past week in Austin, TX

Doesn't she just look like someone who is a linguist, a mathematician, and a sci-fi/historical/ and pseudonymous romance (to pay the rent, she said) author?


 

Coventry

 Looking at "Coventry Carol," for Advent I wondered what exactly it was.  I knew of the phrase sent to Coventry but discerned that must be later for some historical reaction to an already existing place. This part I had right. But I guessed that "coventry" as a word, and thus a place-name, must be related to covenant, convent, coven, and the like. 

Wrongo! This is dismissed as a "folk etymology," one of the worst insults that can be bestowed on a guess.

 city in Warwickshire, mid-13c., an alteration of Old English Couentre (1043), probably literally "Cofa's tree," from Old English masc. personal name Cofa (genitive Cofan) + tree (n.). If this is correct, the name might refer to a boundary marker or a public assembly place. The explanation that it was named for a convent founded there 11c. likely would be folk etymology.

My wife knew that being sent to Coventry meant to be excluded and not spoken to or listened to, which I had only vaguely understood.  Looking it up, it was used by military officers to socially sanction others who had committed dishonourable acts that did not rise to the level of courts martial. 

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Three-Digit Plate

 My (Great-)Aunt Sal had a three-digit plate because she had registered her first car in the 1930's. 673. She had a Creme-and-Cocoa Chevy and then VW Bugs when I knew her, finishing with a Superbeetle. I should have paid attention and tried to snap for it when she died in 1983.


 

Trisagion

I will be singing with the choir for advent again, so it is back to warmups to get my range and what's left of my technique back. I find this wonderful, moving up a half step with each repetition until I can't hit the highest note, then dropping down an octave and climbing again. It is a worship song rather than an exercise. I have to pay attention to mouth shape, remembering the "r's" and "e's" especially. There is breath and throat control for the slurred notes, to keep them smooth and not choppy. The intervals are varied.

It's a beautiful piece, based on a standard Orthodox liturgical hymn. There are older more authentic version that are also good to learn.


 

55th Reunion

Best reunion I have been to, and it did not begin auspiciously. There were many fewer than at the 50th - no surprise - and just a lot of brief conversation and moving on. Pleasant but shallow, I suppose. But over the first two hours all forty of us had a chance to touch base with just about all of the others, everyone having a longer conversation with a few. In the last hour it narrowed to about 20, all around one table with some side conversations and switching places when people went to get another drink or had a longer goodbye.  But no one was far from the center, and more of the conversation was addressed to the whole group, a few lines here and there. People waited for each other, listened to each other, told stories. It ended softly, slowly. 

Monday, October 19, 2026

Salt and Pepper

I am no longer shocked that prepared supermarket foods have too much pepper and salt, nor that cheaper restaurants lean on those ingredients.  They are cheap, flavorful, and cover a multitude of sins.  I'd rather have a try at those supposed culinary sins they are covering myself, but it must be working or it wouldn't keep happening - and maybe getting worse.

We went to an expensive restaurant on Friday, and my tenderloin and potato based dish had way too much pepper. This seems to be happening everywhere these days. Do the majority of people like that much? Does it spur people to buy more drinks, as the salt does? Has everyone forgotten how to cook food? 

In contrast, we went to a coastal seafood place tonight and I had fried scallops, discerning no pepper. There was likely some salt in the batter, but it didn't taste salty. It was just simple and very good. It is the sort of place with an overhead chalkboard menu where you order at the counter and pick it up when they call your number. It was busy on a Monday night in October.

Sponge-Headed Scienceman has had it with garlic being added to everything, and I am beginning to come around to that idea, after years of saying Gimme More. But first, back off on the salt and pepper.  I have started to mention it, especially at fancier places which might have more reason to fear negative word-of-mouth. There are salt and pepper on the table for a reason, I thought. 

Friday, October 16, 2026

The Land of Milk and Cookies

I had a pastor who years ago used that phrase in a sermon, along the lines of "and then we will all go to live in the land of milk and cookies."  I thought it was charming, capturing the spirit of joy, calm, and abundance that the biblical phrase milk and honey intended, but in a modern context.  I mentioned it to a co-worker who was one of Those Christians who launched into a correction that this was not actually something that should have been in a sermon, because the honey part of the phrase represents something-or-other about Messianic prophecy which shouldn't be left out because then you are missing the whole point...

Well, no. Keep it simple.  Honey refers to foraging.  Milk refers to agriculture, possibly settled but more commonly nomadic. The Israelites moved between these economies, and at varying times God was quite clear where they should be.  No, Cain, do not bring me an offering of broccoli. Yes, Nehemiah, it is time to rebuild a city. The Land of Milk and Honey covers the territory.  Everything is here.  The foraging is good, the cows are contented, be at peace.

Noticing

Steve Sailer's book Noticing is built around his decades-long observation that there are things you are not supposed to notice, and simply noticing them out loud gets you in trouble.  There is a reason no one was noticing and it wasn't an accident.

So I have long noticed but only occasionally mentioned how often people - meaning especially my age, especially women, and ones I know/knew - show how kind and good they are by how often they mention that they hate Trump. The oftenness provides ample evidence that they don't actually criticise both sides, and leads to wondering why they have to say essentially the same thing so often.

The other side spreads it around to a somewhat larger circle of "stupid things liberals do," with a variety of targets.  

Yogi Berra supposedly said "You can see a lot just by looking." 

Links from 2015

From October and November.  It now looks as if all 11,702 posts of mine have been visited 150-200 times this October, including some to dead links. 

 Boomer Youth Culture a simple theory on how it developed that I still like.

Community Versus Communism  I was refining the idea at this point.  As I read, I sometimes thought "That's how I still say that now," while at other times I thought "I hit upon a better way to say that." Good comment from T99.

Bamfield's John Vanden Music from The Bills with great harmonies. Bamfield is a tiny community on Vancouver Island, facing the Pacific.

Star Wars Villains  The Assistant Village Idiot explains to you why it's morally inconsistent and confusing.

Two extended posts about College Protests that are still green

One Thought  Starting with an analogy I still like.

Life Is Hard  Good responses, closing with a highly complimentary spam comment I left up.

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Porcupine

A woman was running back up the road from her truck, looking concerned at the small animal that was wandering and looking disoriented in the road. It was a young porcupine.

A warm-hearted woman. What could possibly go wrong. 

Monday, October 12, 2026

Traffic

My overall traffic has suddenly gone up 100x, with this last week up 3x, all of my posts from May 2025 visited two hundred times each two days ago, and a similar weirdness for Oct 4-9 targeting other months in the last ten years.

They come from phones in South America and Southern Asia, but except for one American Osteopathy site, the majority come from the vast category of "other."  

Whatever it is, something automated is looking for something here, and I doubt that's good. 

Friday, October 09, 2026

New Education Model! Using AI!

 So you know it must work, right? Except Boy, Was I Wrong About Alpha School by Wess Trabelsi at AI ∩ K12.  This is someone who wants the tech revolution in education to work.  He is sympathetic.  

But he has also seen other promising results blow up before, and calls 'em as he sees 'em.

I have long since learned not to be surprised when new educational marvels look like they work, because the news that there is selection bias and results that don't scale is just around the corner. Deception.  Some of it may be salvageable, but it doesn't look likely.

Thursday, October 08, 2026

Debates

Scott Alexander at ACX has a new post, challenging Steven Pinker to a debate about AI. Alexander thinks the AI dangers are real - and I don't mean the water and the electricity - while Pinker thinks they are oversold. Alexander points out that Pinker has consistently underestimated how intelligent AI is going to be, so he should just admit he is wrong, wrong, wrong about all of it. There is something about the tone which makes me uncomfortable.  His reasoning is all in a row, though it is his usual obsessive self. (Note, Alexander always faults himself for the length of such posts, as if that were the extent of the problem. To me that is a clue of how he is missing the point.)

Alexander was arguing with Tyler Cowen last year about USAID in much the same tone. I am at a bit of a loss, approving of his general approach in both discussions, yet finding the final product somewhat beside the point. It is fair to hold someone accountable about what they previously wrote, but this somehow has an air of the childish "But you said...but you said...but you SAID..." I quoted GK Chesterton about arguing with a madman, as Alexander has that autistic style I am so familiar with. 

If you argue with a madman, it is extremely probable that you will get the worst of it; for in many ways his mind moves all the quicker for not being delayed by things that go with good judgment. He is not hampered by a sense of humour or by clarity*, or by the dumb certainties of experience. He is the more logical for losing certain sane affections. Indeed, the common phrase for insanity is in this respect a misleading one. The madman is not the man who has lost his reason. The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason. 

But my strongest impression was how much I glimpsed my own reflection in his posts. A few specific topics I have covered in detail (ahem) and at length (ahem) sprang immediately to mind. 

* I remembered this as "charity," which is interesting.  I may like that better, and if I ever get to speak with Gilbert I will mention it. 

Wednesday, October 07, 2026

Undermentioned

There are people making points I would myself, but doing it better than I would have. Yet I do notice few people want to touch on the possibility that this is what happens when minority and immigrant cultures are trying to compete socially in elite white situations. Perhaps those who already feel entitled are more likely to enter those cultures, less afraid of it.  One of the accused has returned to Dubai, for example. 

Tuesday, October 06, 2026

"Hidden" Messages

My mother remarried in August 1966, just before I entered 8th grade. We went to the beach with his family sometime that summer, with the girl who was going to become my step-sister, who was getting ready to leave for Colby Junior College.  This song came on my transistor radio and their voices dropped.  "You know what this is really about, right?" said Beth.  My mother murmured, "it sounds like they are talking about having too much to drink last night without saying it." My sister nodded wisely.  They were clearly hoping that I didn't catch this terrible reference. 

That was my first clue that my new sister was some kind of a dingbat.  It was clearly a drug reference, not alcohol.  You could tell that from the garage-band El Cheapo psychedelic sound if nothing else. (Rock autoharp was a little surprising.) Heck, I even made sure my nine-year old brother didn't miss stuff like that.  You wouldn't want to be humiliated in fifth grade of a suburban school for missing a drug reference.  You might never recover your status. It was one more moment of thinking I was just going to be alone in the world until I had a family of my own. Eighteen months later I played "What Condition My Condition Was In" in my own garage band,* and none of the mothers overhearing us had the least bit of objection. Went right over their heads.

Of course, I married a girl who also didn't get the reference, or more exactly, never considered that there might be a naughty reference of any kind. She memorised lyrics without listening to them.  Her sorority sisters explained a few things to her so I didn't have to. But that's another story.


 *We weren't even a garage band.  None of our parents would let us use their garage. We thought we had a garage at Jimmy Labonte's house once, but when we got there his father was doing Pinewood Derby stuff with his younger brothers.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

Lee Kuan Yew's Memoirs

 The review convinced me that Lee, the topic, is fascinating, but the book isn't. Lee Kuan Yew's Memoirs at Astral Codex Ten, part of ACX's yearly series. Lee was the determined genius who rescued Singapore, taking it from Third-World hellhole to economic powerhouse.

There’s an irony in that while Japan lost World War 2 pretty badly on the field, their actual stated goals in the war were to free Asia from western colonialism, and those goals they achieved amazingly well. They may have lost by direct force, but Lee and others like him didn’t forget how weak and disorganized and cowardly the British ruled in defeat. Western empires ruled Asia more through their aura of invincibility than through their technological advantage, and once that was lost their days were numbered and they knew it. The fall of Singapore was the single greatest military defeat the British ever had in terms of soldiers lost; it was also the battle that struck the deathblow to their Empire. 

But also

Something like half the book is Lee listing every world leader he ever talked to as PM. This is another part that mostly gets kind of dull (especially if you don’t follow the details, although this case is much easier to track than the internal politics chapters since you’ll probably recognize the characters’ names, or at least their countries). They’re all described as “tough” and “vigorous”, occasionally as “warm”, and usually with some other positive descriptors. This is probably a mix of sincere respect and diplomatic language for most of them.

Except Jimmy Carter. Lee spends an entire chapter making fun of Jimmy Carter for being shallow, undermined, weak-willed and inauthentic. And then takes an aside in the next chapter, when he’s complimenting Reagan, to mention how smart it was of the American people to replace Jimmy Carter with this guy. If you ever want to see someone who’s not a giant swimming rabbit attacking Jimmy Carter, this is the book for you 

Nolan Sisters

British.  Never heard of them before. This was their first TV appearance, but they were big in Europe in the 70s.  A friend described them as "terminally cute," which is true. As they got older, they got just a little more frisky, more like Marie Osmond than ABBA or Olivia Newton-John, but in that range.

The algorithm just sends you things, and there are lots of YouTube videos about their later tragic lives (three died of cancer; their agents ripped them off) and how beloved they were in Europe, especially England and Ireland. Perhaps it is the green dresses, but that's a very Irish-looking group of sisters.

Public Perception

Bethany again looks for the research, finds there is very little research, and so does some research.

Do People Ever Change Their Minds About Controversial Cases? 

This is why polling can be valuable: people’s perception of what others think does not necessarily match what others actually do think, and it definitely doesn’t always catch when people change what they think. 

Data Republican is a national treasure, and it looks like she does this full time.  Bethany, OTOH, has a day job, a husband and child, and lots of medical appointments or she would be DataCatholic/~Feminist/~Libertarian*, which doesn't really roll off the tongue and sell subscriptions. 

We think we know what the general public thinks, but it is often only what "my people" think, or "those stupid other mass culture people" think, or what I overheard today, saw a poll on today, or was assured by reliable opinionards is true. There is almost nothing that we have more than a slender portion of the data, but even with that low bar, gauging public opinion might be near the bottom of the list. This leads to the puzzle of whose opinion we do actually know pretty well. Perhaps I should write about that general question.

Public perception does change, but is tough to suss out, because there are so many temporary and interactive factors that influence point-in-time opinion guesses discernment. 

*I don't know who has what symbols and semiotics in place, but "~" means approximately. 

Saturday, October 03, 2026

Kids These Days

 Kids These Days Part II by Paul Bloom.  Part I is linked there. He goes directly after the smartphones-are-the-problem issue, but expands to trying to explain anything about development.

 Turkheimer’s skepticism is about explaining individual differences, but population trends also emerge from many interacting causes. When trying to understand an increase in depression among a certain population at a certain time, we should take seriously a similar skepticism about theories that say it’s caused by this—and even about more subtle theories that say it’s caused by this and that and this other thing. When it comes to the claim that smartphones are to blame, this skepticism should be reinforced by the failure to find robust evidence in its favor.

Kids these days can't even shoe a damn horse. 

Johnny Most

Everyone around the league hated him. I grew up with him.  I thought that's the way basketball announcers were supposed to sound. 



Pound the Table

 There is an old lawyer's joke that works well for just about any dispute:

If the facts are with you, pound the facts into the table.

If the authorities (professors, officials, regulations) are with you, pound the authorities into the table.

If neither the facts nor the authorities are with you, pound the table.

This comes up in hereditarian disputes all the time. The hereditarians pound the facts, the environmentalists pound the authorities...

Who pounds the table? That should tell you something. 

Friday, October 02, 2026

Chart-topper in 1909

I don't think they called it barbershop quartet singing until much later, but this kind of four-part harmony was big for many years. The soloist was more prominent at this point, while a full blend became the standard later. I have a dimly remembered fact I will confirm before going forward...

Yes, the barbershop sound was all-male at first. But women sing as well as men if not better and there was resentment that they could not join, so they formed their own groups, called the Sweet Adelines. Great name, BTW.  They tended to be more choral than quartet. Eventually there was enough pressure that the SPEBSQSA (checks notes, yes, that's it) admit women that they did so, but an all-male movement started up almost immediately after.  The claim was that the all-male sound was distinctive and worth preserving.

They were right. It's not the same. For choirs, Soprano-Alto-Tenor-Bass or Soprano-Alto-Baritone is standard, and it is just different from all-male or all-female.  It is not accidental that the most precise arrangers mixed both sexes for voices voices.  There is something more universal about that.  But for homier, more intimate harmonies in performance, those community groups tend to be all-female or all-male. Three or four sisters dressed alike, four neighborhood guys on the corner trying to make it big, all the Oak Ridge/Byrds/Temptations with qualitatively different sounds than the Supremes or Vandellas.  When the voices were mixed, it was a female lead with Pips behind her, or a famous male with interchangeable female backups. Call it whatever you like and complain about it if you have nothing better to do, but the sound is different. I like them all, but don't consider them interchangeable. 

I had a friend who went to Mount Holyoke who claimed that there was nothing more breathtaking than spending all week hearing nothing but female voices and then having a male chorus come in to perform on the weekend. Similarly, USO performances always brought in females.

Effective Altruism

Data Republican believes EA should be banned from AI safety, policy-making, and governance.  That's a pretty extreme position, but she makes a solid case for both the mild and extreme versions.

Fundamentally, EA is a maximizing philosophy: it always tries to price future value. And extinction is the “negative infinity” number in the ledger. Once you are determining outcome by probabilities, just having even a tiny chance of extinction dominates every other calculation.

One such scenario that many conservatives might find sympathetic is: do you do gain-of-function research for a 70% chance that you will prevent the next swine flu, or is the 1% risk that the virus escapes containment in Wuhan and kills 10 million people acceptable? Many of us, having lived through COVID-19, would put our foot down on allowing any kind of gain-of-function research again within our lifetimes. That’s one scenario where conservatives can potentially reason their way to the same answer as EAs.

EAs run that same logic in every calculation. What this means, inside their heads: an extinction level event scenario is the greatest threat vector. 

Scott Alexander, like others, is obsessed with AI, alignment, and its effects. He is very much a supporter of Effective Altruism in general, though not slavishly so. Still, I imagine he would object to such a blanket disallowing of EA from the discussion (or at least, from the decision-making). There are so many discussions and counter discussions over at Astral Codex Ten that I won't even attempt to choose for you. As his commenters are also quite brilliant - I consider it one of the few sites to compete with this one for average IQ - you can either dabble or go hard against them, trying to steelman your own arguments. This would be the major leagues. And yet...

I have felt uncomfortable with Effective Altruism since I first heard of it, though it took me a while to articulate why. Frankly, it probably took reading others who had thought about it more rigorously to be able to articulate it.  One of the consequences of becoming lazier, and thus less intelligent, is not being able to provide some of the service I was designed for. I have excuses. Not good excuses, but at least some things I can say out loud with some earnestness. 

The best arguments against EA are in Data Republican's essay. Pricing future value is a great example. It makes entire sense, but somehow leads to insane conclusions. If a future life is worth the same as a life now, then the sheer volume of future humans and their needs with forever dwarf what is good for us. More interestingly, perhaps, is how that completely devalues our ancestors. There is the (bogus in reality but worth valuing as a myth) Native American belief in Seven Generations, that we owe something to the three generations before us and the three after us. GK Chesterton wrote similarly that tradition is the only way of giving a vote to the dead. CS Lewis, describing the Tao in The Abolition of Man shows that the wise in every tradition teach that we owe something to both our heritage and our posterity. But EA very quickly reveals that it owes nothing to heritage and everything to posterity.  The dead have made their contribution and their suffering is now a sunk cost. 

There is also comparative suffering among species, leading to calculations that the horrible suffering of three chickens or thirty-two shrimp are equivalent to the suffering of one human. The actual numbers are immaterial.  Thirty or three-hundred chickens would be the same. The principle of comparing it to any human suffering is something new in the world. It may be a logically consistent and defensible philosophical and moral position.

But it is not a human position, despite being favored by "humanists." It gives away the game, recognising that humanists are in fact subhumanists, valuing some bare minimum of the species as fungible with any other human.  Dismiss it as a mere prejudice on my part if you will, but the idea of perpetuating humans who are only biologically and not culturally related to me is not just disquieting, it's silly.  

Humanists are actually Subhumanists.  I should probably think about that and post on it.  Yet now that I have said that, I recall that CS Lewis already covered that in the last debate section of Out of the Silent Planet.