Lousy Predictions

I suggested in April that the Red Sox would win 81 games this year, maybe 85 if things broke right for them. They already have 91 wins with 12 games to go. For those of you who don't follow MLB, let me tell you that this is a very big difference, and my prediction was lousy.

 I did say that Lester and Buchholz might each go "16-10 or something," which turned out to be pretty accurate. 10-0 and being gone for half the season is about equal to 16-10 in value to a team, and Lester is 14-8 at present. I said the rest of the rotation would be improved, but not good, merely not disastrous; similarly, the bullpen couldn't be worse than last year and must be a bit better. Both were in fact much better. Very much better.

I thought the hitting would be slightly improved, but that also is significantly improved. In particular, Napoli, Carp, Nava, Victorino, and Drew have exceeded expectations. The only unreasonable good fortune is that there have been few injuries. It hasn't seemed that way because of the ongoing focus on Buchholz, and then the sinking feeling about Ellsbury, but one has only to look at the new season starting for the Patriots and their woes to realise that the Red Sox haven't had such bad luck.

Yet.