You know that I am notoriously bad at the horse race aspect of elections, but my reading is that Obama is going to be re-elected. I am distressed not so much that people disagree with my assessment of how the country should be run - though that is indeed important - but at my usual metacomplaints about the field on which we play: the important stories buried by those who fancy themselves the guardians of the republic; the lack of ability of liberals to step back and even consider the possibility that they might be at fault; the confirmation bias and self-righteousness on both sides, but more distressing in those on the left who seem unconcerned with the necessity of even addressing those issues.
For that is all that I am capable of understanding, after all. I read economists and am persuaded one way or another; I encounter arguments for and against healthcare legislation or military interventions or trade agreements; I read about scandals and weigh their relative importance. Yet I know that these issues all have complexities far beyond me, and crucial information that I am not considering.
However, I can tell who is playing fair and who isn't. I am qualified to judge that. No political party ever does very well at this - nor should we suspect that any ever will. But I don't see how that particular balance scale looks at all even these last few decades. Fallen humanity. And I fear we will not ever do better.