Kansas is the best team in the country. Kentucky and Syracuse can beat anyone. Teams 4-7 are solid, and maybe even 8-12 are all capable of picking off a better team and holding on versus an upstart.
Someone below that will catch lightning in a bottle for two games. Others will get their one surprise. But there's a real dropoff after #12 and I don't see any of those teams able to beat top teams consistently.
I don't know who I'm rooting for. I have positive regard for all 12 of those except Michigan State. And now that I think of it, Syracuse. Never liked them. I may have most fondness for Kentucky.
One method I heard recently is to compare team's 4th-best players. If there is a big talent gap, particularly if they play the same position, that can be exploited in tournament play, even more than the advantage the best player has.
Kansas' 4th best player is Marcus Morris, who is just much better than Kentucky's Eric Bledsoe (turnovers), and a little better than Syracuse's Rick Jackson (fouls). Syracuse does have that very deep rotation, however, with 4-7 about equal. Duke's Brian Zoubek, O-State's Jon Diebler, Purdue's Chris Kramer, and WVU's Wellington Smith are all a cut below even Bledsoe.