tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post8649647778516147916..comments2024-03-27T03:19:11.216-04:00Comments on Assistant Village Idiot: Health Professionals and VaccinesAssistant Village Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-66270389731789054772021-03-19T13:15:34.194-04:002021-03-19T13:15:34.194-04:00That sounds plausible. And, in that way, I'm a...That sounds plausible. And, in that way, I'm advising him to choose rather than advising him to make a particular choice; a good thing to teach a young man.Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-56006092426350285292021-03-19T07:38:34.831-04:002021-03-19T07:38:34.831-04:00For evaluating the risk, I think it's best to ...For evaluating the risk, I think it's best to structure it just to have something to look at. Decision trees are usually used humorously now, but they have value. https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffnt&q=decision+tree&atb=v151-1&iax=images&ia=images<br /><br />The decision exists on two levels. The covid vs vaccine one is easy. Even young people, even children are occasionally dying from covid, but not from the vaccine. There are also long-term effects showing in all populations, though maybe not permanent. Also, if you get side effects from the vaccine, you aren't passing those along to anyone else, but if you get covid you could spread it to others. That the vaccine is likely to give at least some protection against further variants is another plus. However...<br /><br />Just because you don't get the vaccine doesn't mean you are definitely going to get covid. Getting neither covid nor vaccine would of course be the least risky of all. You would just default to your usual risk of getting hit by a bus. The obvious problem is that if you don't get the vaccine you don't know which basket you are ending up in, getting covid, which is the worst basket, or not getting anything, which is the best.<br /><br />I personally lean toward reducing risk rather than trying to outrun it. At least, that's my approach when I think about it. When I am encountering a risk fresh without time to think, I think my tendency is to try and outrun it, hoping it goes away. <br /><br />If you are giving advice, you might also give it in decision tree form, so the person can weight the various alternatives on his own and see the flow of it. He might weight them at least a little differently than you, but still be in roughly the same territory.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-61144271162385027592021-03-19T07:25:41.690-04:002021-03-19T07:25:41.690-04:00It is funny that it all turns different when we ha...It is funny that it all turns different when we have to give advice to others, isn't it? Much simpler when we are only bringing ourselves on this trip.<br /><br />I have two answers, in two separate comments. First, all five of my sons, and all five of the women who love them, are getting vaccinated, and some already are. Son #4, the Romanian who was in the USMC, who lives in Norway now might not. Scandinavians are very big on everyone going along with the group, whether the government says to or not, and he has picked up some of that over the ten years. However, he is also the most conspiracy-minded of the lot, having believed a few odd things that friends have passed along to him. He is still in FB contact with guys from his old unit, so they might influence him. His girlfriend is likely to be a an influence.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-59655692095401155742021-03-19T01:09:51.330-04:002021-03-19T01:09:51.330-04:00I think we don't know, to be honest. The only ...I think we don't know, to be honest. The only sure way to know long term effects is to wait for the long term. We have to make choices sooner than that, one way or another.<br /><br />This does, of course, court the danger of consulting with people who -- as AVI warns -- have strong opinions about "What Other People Need To Do." Still and all, most of you are wise, and I have to give good advice. So I'm open, as it were, to prudential reasoning about what advice I might ought to give. Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-44886927786521259252021-03-19T00:07:45.794-04:002021-03-19T00:07:45.794-04:00Is the risk of long-term side effects greater with...Is the risk of long-term side effects greater with this drug than with others? I think that if there were effects on fertility it would manifest quickly and not be a deliberate delayed effect. I don't think we've got the skill to design something like that. Accident, maybe.<br />Doesn't Israel already have a large fraction of the population inoculated? Some of them would be in the fertile group--is there a decline in pregnancy rates?jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792036361407527304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-88733677999752238772021-03-18T22:53:42.224-04:002021-03-18T22:53:42.224-04:00That's true, but that's also why I ask abo...That's true, but that's also why I ask about prudence. What is the prudential advice to give the young? They're at little risk, apparently; but on the other hand they have a duty to their elders. That duty is not unlimited, however; and the risks are unknown. <br /><br />It's a serious question. What advice ought I to give, knowing that my advice is apt to be accepted? Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-24665910929444215912021-03-18T22:38:54.948-04:002021-03-18T22:38:54.948-04:00The long-term risks of even a mild case of COVID a...The long-term risks of even a mild case of COVID are unknown, too. We never know this kind of thing 100% for sure, but we still have to decide among the various risky options available to us. No one promised us a perfectly risk-free option.Texan99https://www.blogger.com/profile/10479561573903660086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-83990914883524526322021-03-18T19:34:17.947-04:002021-03-18T19:34:17.947-04:00If they are hiding something just to make a quick ...<i>If they are hiding something just to make a quick buck and it turns out to make you sterile later, the class-action suit would bankrupt them. They might be many terrible things, but stupid is not generally one of them.</i><br /><br />In fairness, my understanding of the usual skeptical argument isn't that they're 'hiding' anything; it's that neither they nor anyone else knows what the long-term effects of mRNA editing are going to be. It's too new a technology to be sure what will come of it. I myself am considering whether to hold out for the J&J one, because it's a more traditional vaccine that uses a harmless virus to carry the spike proteins rather than 'reprogramming' your body using a novel technology.<br /><br />I have also to give advice to a younger man whose fertility is of some concern to me. I myself do not intend to have more children, though I would not be unhappy if by miracle I did so; but he has his whole life ahead of him. What would be prudent, given that the long term risks are in fact unknown? Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-13308453152608400642021-03-18T18:31:36.256-04:002021-03-18T18:31:36.256-04:00@ David foster - that sounds familiar. I knew both...@ David foster - that sounds familiar. I knew both liberal and conservative anti-vaxxers before covid. Because there are more now - and I think your "initially liberal, now conservative" observation is correct, that would imply that these are somewhat less extreme.<br /><br />I will say that while the political leaning was usually clear in the original anti-vaxxers, they were not usually the most conservative or most liberal people I knew. Politics were often secondary, dragged along with other ideas about how the world worked "behind the scenes." I am rolling all of them around in my head wondering what additional descriptions fit. As the conservatives were also evangelical/fundamentalist and the liberals worked in human services, I think my samples are additionally restricted enough to render my observations suspect.<br /><br />I think they were all very pleasant people but odd, unlike the people who go online and make belligerent declarative statements.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-29610546308821803042021-03-18T17:48:40.182-04:002021-03-18T17:48:40.182-04:00"*Essential Oils"
I never understood th..."*Essential Oils"<br /><br />I never understood that craze.The Mad Sopranohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06310574598406502941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-79029772226834373922021-03-18T17:17:00.811-04:002021-03-18T17:17:00.811-04:00I saw a study somewhere...and this was a couple of...I saw a study somewhere...and this was a couple of years ago, pre-Covid...suggesting the people opposed to vaccines aren't distinguished so much by party or by liberal/conservative beliefs, but by how 'extreme' those beliefs were, presumably based on some kind of scale that ranges from Extreme Left to Extreme Right.<br /><br />What I observe currently is that there were a lot of Progs opposed to the Covid vaccines because Bad Orange Man was involved..maybe fewer today...and a lot of conservatives opposed because Bill Gates is (supposedly) involved, and also as a reaction against pressure.<br /><br />David Fosterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15464681514800720063noreply@blogger.com