tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post6026896559060470514..comments2024-03-27T03:19:11.216-04:00Comments on Assistant Village Idiot: Ron Bailey and Jonathan Adler on Climate ChangeAssistant Village Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-79124646135609899942019-12-03T21:32:26.730-05:002019-12-03T21:32:26.730-05:00I'm willing to believe that it could be a prob...I'm willing to believe that it could be a problem, but I also believe that there's a relatively easy solution: injecting ablative material into the upper atmosphere via weather balloons and hoses. We can keep as much of the solar energy out as we want, if it becomes important to do so. It's basically an artificial volcano, which have been shown to result in temporary global cooling; and the stuff will fall out of the upper atmosphere in a few years, so if we put up too much by accident it's not a huge deal.Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-1050582961987199412019-12-03T18:48:57.965-05:002019-12-03T18:48:57.965-05:00Recall that very recently within human history New...Recall that very recently within human history New England was under a mile of ice. The timing and detailed causes of ice ages is still not well understood (my daughter is a geologist who did some research in this area so I’ve kept abreast). An ice age in todays world would be catastrophic in ways that are not comparable to warming scenarios. So if humans can really affect huge climate changes then why not direct them? After all who asked us to vote on the climate we want? Sometime around 1952 was picked by greens since that was about the time human CO2 emissions started to rise rapidly. The criteria seems to be something we do is bad while emissions from volcanos and other natural causes are bad. Research is a good thing but pursuing a pre-determined result is not science and bad public policy. DirtyJobsGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05758528269715802477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-23913619934162316102019-12-03T14:56:45.258-05:002019-12-03T14:56:45.258-05:00I like Adler's article for the focus on doing ...I like Adler's article for the focus on doing sensible things in response. So many supposedly green mandates, programs, and regulations are actually counterproductive.<br /><br />The Ethanol motor-fuel mandate is one thing that might have seemed sensible at one time, but that's unsupportable now. A cellulosic-ethanol breakthrough would have been great, but I don't expect it any time soon.<br /><br />I've had scientists who were highly competent (in their own field) aghast when I countered eco-energy MW claims they believed from green-activist press with simple concepts like "Capacity Factor". Ontario is just about at the point where any additional solar or wind would lead to an inevitable increase in CO^2 output -- something has to be ready to come online at night and when the wind isn't strong enough keep the turbines spinning. Sensibly sited wind and solar are great, and when widely distributed have other advantages WRT grid capacity compared to large single-point generators. Supplying the grid <i>without</i> nuclear and/or fossil fuels is in the near-term a pipe-dream, and the EPA "new source review" has in practice blocked more efficiency-increases than it has fostered.Douglas2https://www.blogger.com/profile/11290012200563917585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-56927132682733725252019-12-03T10:03:03.560-05:002019-12-03T10:03:03.560-05:00Assistant Village Idiot: Serious researchers, thou...<b>Assistant Village Idiot</b>: <i>Serious researchers, though they are generally more concerned than I am, are less willing to commit to statements that human-created changes are most of or even a large part of the problem.</i><br /><br />Actually, the available science indicates that humans are likely the cause for all or nearly all of the current warming trend. See <a href="https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-07/models-observed-human-natural.png" rel="nofollow">Meehl et al.</a>, Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate, American Meteorological Society 2004. <br /><br /><b>Assistant Village Idiot</b>: <i>I don't listen to people who reflexively say it's all a scam, and I don't listen to people who insist that imminent catastrophe is beyond question.</i><br /><br />You might want to listen, even if you assign a high discount value. When people are ignored about impending problems, they tend to hyperventilate or even exaggerate. That doesn't mean their underlying point is wrong, which should be evaluated on the merits. On the other hand, some people try to minimize the problem.<br /><br />"Quick! There's a fire! Ring the alarm or the whole town will burn down!"<br />"The town never burned down before."<br />"That's because we always ring the alarm and put out the fire before it does!"<br />"What's the hurry? We can put it out tomorrow."<br />"Aieee!"<br /><br /><b>Assistant Village Idiot</b>: <i>A major problem in the past is that the models predicting catastrophic change in the past have not had a good record when they fed the data from 1990 or 2000 into their models and compared it to what actually did happen later. </i><br /><br />Model projections have been generally within their <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/images/cmp_cmip3_sat_ann-1-600x485.png" rel="nofollow">margins of error</a>. <br /><br /><b>Assistant Village Idiot</b>: <i>A few of the researchers leak out a WE HAVE TO ACT NOW AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT YOU FOOL panic in spite of themselves </i><br /><br />Sure. Early action is important. <br /><br />The fact is that humans are highly adaptable, and will continue to adapt regardless of global warming, even prosper. However, there will be social, economic, and ecological damage due to global warming. To minimize the damage, and reduce the cost, requires action sooner rather than later. <br /><br />Bailey is correct that it is a problem of the commons, and that pro-market people need to be part of the solution. <br /><br />Keep in mind that this is just one of many challenges humanity is facing, and will face in the future; the breakdown of the global political order, growth of social control, genetic modification, etc. Resolving the easier problem now will free humanity to address the more difficult problems later.Zachrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081260898264733380noreply@blogger.com