tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post5261724551309037480..comments2024-03-27T03:19:11.216-04:00Comments on Assistant Village Idiot: The Libertarian VoteAssistant Village Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-62803258518265343832018-06-08T13:46:17.286-04:002018-06-08T13:46:17.286-04:00I'm a libertarian, but I'd never have thro...I'm a libertarian, but I'd never have thrown my vote away on Gary Johnson. Nor would I be likely to close my heart permanently to any candidate over a single betrayal. I always have to balance betrayals on a variety of issues. For many years, the balance hasn't been difficult to calculate, and I've voted straight Republican more or less cheerfully.Texan99https://www.blogger.com/profile/10479561573903660086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-82038411646695855472018-06-05T17:38:02.631-04:002018-06-05T17:38:02.631-04:00@ Laura. Your characterisation of Republicans is ...@ Laura. Your characterisation of Republicans is not entirely unfair. Yet some have labored thanklessly in the vineyard these many years, and I would not have their efforts obscured by those who have been less courageous.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-3361570032496140102018-06-04T21:29:24.752-04:002018-06-04T21:29:24.752-04:00If blacks merely don't show up to vote, then T...If blacks merely don't show up to vote, then Trump wins, er, bigly; this would also swing the down-ticket results as well. Taking Virginia as an example: Clinton won 88% of the black vote, which was 21% of the voters (slightly higher turnout than whites). Clinton won the state by only 5.34%... so Trump would have taken the state if 1) the black vote had been 76/24 rather than the actual 88/9; or 2) the black turnout had been decreased by 30%, but the margins the same.<br /><br />If there's a shift among blacks away from the Dems, I would expect it to begin with two signs: first, a few socially prominent blacks making either anti-Democrat or pro-Trump comments <i>and getting away with it</i> (i.e. resisting a public shout-down and maintaining popularity), and second, a noticeable drop in black turnout for one or two elections, as a portion of the electorate gets caught uncomfortably between what they think they ought to do (vote D) and what they actually, sorta, kinda want to do (vote Trump). Likewise, ditto, for the "youth" vote.<br /><br />Note, I say "Trump" and not "Republican". The Repubs are a lost cause, as far as most of the electorate goes.Laurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11602288826362438079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-15146354365447659162018-06-04T13:14:20.569-04:002018-06-04T13:14:20.569-04:00I don't think we're going to see a signifi...I don't think we're going to see a significant number of defections from the Democrats. There may be some high profile talk ala Kanye West and Kim K but I think that is going to be less adoption of GOP identity and more 'Trump is for real and we have to deal with him'. Right now that's a significant difference with the focus of the #Resistance driving the Democrat party. Projecting to 2020, maybe not so much by then. What I think 2020 will tell us is how much the Democrat party will become the de facto black party (more due to their almost monolithic identification as Democrats and less absolute numbers), and if that moves the rest of the WWC and any significant number of other ethnic groups into a stance more favorable to Republicans. Christopher Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00396671757183163171noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-54195572091096121202018-06-03T21:21:54.625-04:002018-06-03T21:21:54.625-04:00Yes, I saw that in City Journal as well. I had fo...Yes, I saw that in City Journal as well. I had forgotten it already. Thank you.<br /><br />If the black male vote starts to defect, however, I wonder what effect that has on everyone else?Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-39535592771420849932018-06-03T20:41:19.740-04:002018-06-03T20:41:19.740-04:00A perspective on the youth vote that I read recent...A perspective on the youth vote that I read recently. Part of the reason the youth vote leans heavily Democrat now is not just the old 'no heart/no brain' dictomy. It's also because the current young adult voters are the leading edge of the increasing non-white American population so they have additional reaaons (as of now) to lean Democrat.Christopher Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00396671757183163171noreply@blogger.com