tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post3234556485842930458..comments2024-03-27T03:19:11.216-04:00Comments on Assistant Village Idiot: Covid DenialismAssistant Village Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-27679347610683964092021-08-20T20:55:09.836-04:002021-08-20T20:55:09.836-04:00My memory is that Ottawa and Quebec had similar ra...My memory is that Ottawa and Quebec had similar rates as many US states and not that different than those just across the border. The Maritimes are similar to Northern New England, for example. The Dakotas are different, but that's about it. Overall, Canada has about 40% of the danger the US has had, but the geography might (might) explain that.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-75594959146556026202021-08-20T18:24:42.406-04:002021-08-20T18:24:42.406-04:00cont'd
I may not think governments have handl...cont'd<br /><br />I may not think governments have handled this very well, often poorly. I may think they have reacted excessively, but I think governments have emergency powers. They need to think more about how to use them but I have not seen mendacity.<br /><br />Quarantines are a normal part of a public health emergency, especially if you can get the disease without actually having sex with an infected person, a rather proactive move.<br /><br />Vaccines were a normal part of life- when I was a kid I had plenty including smallpox. I've taken shots for funky stuff work work travel. The idea of vaccination is as normal as popping a tylenol, really, and if anything more common for me. I don't mostly get headaches... I get these vaccines were developed faster, but the technological developments behind that have not been kept secret, and millions have received them without serious harm. I've had first Pfizer then Moderna. Trivial reaction only to the second dose. Maybe we'll need boosters. That's hardly a first.<br /><br />It's not just a cold, it's not just a seasonal flu, it's probably worse than Asian or Hong Kong and is at least competing with Spanish flu. Here I am being vague because I'm not bothering to track details and am conscious that speed and rate of infection and death will be affected by the different speed of global travel, different overall health profile of the target populations, and different levels of available treatment, and so on. Spanish flu was serious, and here we have competitive figures despite a richer, broadly healthier population in most places, OTOH it moved a lot faster. So this is no trifle. It's not the Black Death either. Yet we seem to be surrounded only by those who see it as one or the other.<br /><br />I am diabetic, have HBP, and in theory am asthmatic [no symptoms for a decade almost- I think they were wrong and I'd picked up something funky from flying 40 hours with a head cold to a pair of scorching desert countries in summer and living in a cold [23 C degrees] pre-fab in a 45 C place full of flying dust, chemical spraying and airborne feces]. I take respiratory disease seriously and all three of those were considered risk factors. Still I have functioned as described without fear. Almost as I would have in 2019. By the same token, I take the disease seriously and act accordingly, including by treating vaccination as a normal feature of life in my times, and considering the development time as reasonable under the circumstances. Was each jab a minor risk? Sure. Better than getting even a mild dose of early variant COVID and having it work on my diabetes. <br /><br />A lot of Americans who fear the vaccine are fat and probably diabetic. They are free to choose, but I think they've chosen poorly.<br /><br />Sorry to be all over the map. Stressful day at work now ending.random observerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02348644823854777418noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-3447697240197426992021-08-20T18:24:30.713-04:002021-08-20T18:24:30.713-04:00I'm late to this one but I want to comment bec...I'm late to this one but I want to comment because I very much appreciated this post. People with whom I share some views and values have really frustrated me on this. I am not always surprised, except as a matter of degree, but that degree is really shocking to me.<br /><br />I'm 50, live in Canada (Ottawa) and my city has not been hit especially hard. Bad enough. Our mandates have been for physical distancing [I don't think any legal order, just advice, maybe binding on restaurants when open], masks in indoor public places [not on the street], and a series of prolonged lockdowns. I doubt anyone has ever been hassled by anyone official to wear a mask outside. <br /><br />I myself have been designated essential at work and, although teleworking sometimes, have been in the sporadically populated office variously every afternoon, every day all day, three afternoons weekly, twice weekly during the third wave, and now all day every day and then some as some work stuff has been hitting the fan lately. I have walked the 2.5 km each way weather permitting, or taken largely empty buses for half of it under some circumstances. Except for the first lockdown, the Starbucks in the mall has been open, even though the mall was long otherwise closed. I stopped there once or twice daily. I have sat on patios when I had the option, not a lot but more than I did pre-pandemic. Inside the restaurant some times. I'm at groceries and pharmacies and, less commonly because I hardly need to, other stores. <br /><br />I practice physical distancing because nothing is easier. I never wanted to be within 6 ft of strangers in public if possible to avoid. Pardon me, but who TF wants that? No, I'm not on any spectrum. Just know folks are dirty and untrustworthy. The number of men one used to see who didn't wash their hands coming out of a washroom tells that story. I hear the same from some women. So if anything, this mandate was right in my pre-existing wheelhouse. I wear the mask as required in stores and such because they're cheap and obviously harmless and even if they don't protect me or anyone else it keeps the panicky people off my back. It probably does help me a bit and others it protects slightly from me. And wearing it will not cause me to be stupid and go up and stick my face in someone else because I think the mask is a shield against all risk. I wash my hands as much as ever, and sanitize much more. <br /><br />I haven't travelled, but then I always hated it. Easy to skip. I recognize it was more part of the normal lives of many people. Still. Nobody ever died for not taking a cruise, trip to Disney, or family road trip. Plenty of people could never afford them anyway. I haven't seen my elderly parents in 18 months, though they live only in Toronto. I typically saw them only twice a year, and we're all grown ups. My mother immigrated from the UK and didn't see her parents for nearly a decade. <br /><br />All in all, I realize my life was more easy to adapt to COVID than some, but equally I have changed little, only easy habits. I have not stayed at home, nor walked abroad with any significant fear. I cannot be accused of being a victim of COVID panic. <br /><br />tbcrandom observerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02348644823854777418noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-34953924690404115402021-08-11T11:34:07.800-04:002021-08-11T11:34:07.800-04:00@ HMS Defiant. I read about half of coyoteblog...@ HMS Defiant. I read about half of coyoteblog's argument. I have no patience for people who argue "Well, I've heard people say stupid things in defense of this, so it must be bosh." Coyote does not go against the strongest arguments S/he goes after the kids in the back row.<br /><br />@ rural counsel - I don't think it can be called experimental anymore. It has been given millions of times. I think the word "coerce" needs to be defined in your last sentence. No one has been held down and given the vaccine against their will or threatened with physical harm or death. People have been required to get the vaccine to engage in some activities - which is entirely normal public health behavior for over a century and upheld by courts.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-79822929928536330702021-08-10T13:23:53.288-04:002021-08-10T13:23:53.288-04:00A pox on both sides of this argument.
Whatever da...A pox on both sides of this argument.<br /><br />Whatever data is made available is untrustworthy.<br /><br />People need to evaluate their own risk tolerance and make up their own minds with incomplete and imperfect data.<br /><br />Anyone trying to coerce an experimental medical procedure or coerce not getting an experimental medical procedure should be dragged out, curb stomped, and shot. ruralcounselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09193188081686431709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-43362841819136744352021-08-04T15:07:00.748-04:002021-08-04T15:07:00.748-04:00I would invite your attention to Coyote. Some exce...I would invite your attention to Coyote. Some excellent points on the matter.<br /> https://coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2021/08/crazy-government-responses-to-covid-part-1-understanding-incentives.htmlHMS Defianthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10024721130102173694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-84431925812572433152021-08-04T12:35:52.570-04:002021-08-04T12:35:52.570-04:00David Foster: Acquired Immunity
And there are two...<b>David Foster</b>: <i>Acquired Immunity</i><br /><br />And there are two ways to acquire acquired immunity; naturally and artificially. <br />https://www.google.com/search?q=%22natural+immunity%22&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A%2Ccd_max%3A2018<br /><br /><b>David Foster</b>: <i>Haven't seen any credible data showing *deaths* from the vaccines </i><br /><br />This CDC data concerns deaths after vaccination, not deaths from vaccination, but does provide an upper limit. <br />https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.htmlZachrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081260898264733380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-59485967321616341312021-08-04T12:31:37.239-04:002021-08-04T12:31:37.239-04:00Haven't seen any credible data showing *deaths...Haven't seen any credible data showing *deaths* from the vaccines, but there have been side effects, as noted in the Israeli case. Anecdotally, I know a guy who was knocked out for several days after the Pfizer vaccine...I took the same vaccine (both shots) and had hardly any noticeable effects at all. There have been reports of menstrual cycle disturbences in women; could be a factor if a woman is either trying to get pregnant or trying to avoid getting pregnant. <br /><br />One thing that scares people is that there could be long-term effects that only show up after several years of vaccine experience--such is not common for vaccines, I believe, more than other drugs, the bad effects tend to show up relatively soon. And, of course, there could be long term effects of the Covid itself which are not yet showing up.<br /><br />Given that so many people are concerned that the vaccines are emergency approval rather than standard FDA approval, it would be very useful for someone to write up and publish a comparison of what has been done in the testing so far versus what will be required for the full approval. I note that there are very few bureaucratic processes which cannot be speeded up considerably if someone focuses on doing so.David Fosterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15464681514800720063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-72155158155962698302021-08-04T12:24:47.808-04:002021-08-04T12:24:47.808-04:00Acquired Immunity:
https://www.merckmanuals.com/h...Acquired Immunity:<br /><br />https://www.merckmanuals.com/home/immune-disorders/biology-of-the-immune-system/acquired-immunityDavid Fosterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15464681514800720063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-64457158802529280432021-08-04T10:31:17.146-04:002021-08-04T10:31:17.146-04:00David Foster: Also, what's with this term '...<b>David Foster</b>: <i>Also, what's with this term 'natural immunity' which has been going around? </i><br /><br />https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/immunity-types.htmZachrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081260898264733380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-89774412562337595892021-08-04T10:14:52.152-04:002021-08-04T10:14:52.152-04:00David Foster: To put these numbers into perspectiv...<b>David Foster</b>: <i>To put these numbers into perspective, the most dangerous job in the US is logging, with 97.6 annual deaths per 100,000.</i><br /><br />The CDC is reporting about 2 deaths per hundred thousand after vaccination, but none of these have been shown to have a causal link to the vaccine. The number is consistent with the number of deaths expected due to age or other causes. The risk of death from the vaccine appears to be nil.Zachrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081260898264733380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-41903161095348815392021-08-04T09:34:39.102-04:002021-08-04T09:34:39.102-04:00Also, what's with this term 'natural immun...Also, what's with this term 'natural immunity' which has been going around? The standard term for immunity you get as a result of having a disease is 'acquired immunity' on an individual level, and 'herd immunity' at the level of a group. 'Natural immunity' sounds like something that a hippie vegan type would buy at a health supplement store.David Fosterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15464681514800720063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-70314205336503656872021-08-04T09:30:37.711-04:002021-08-04T09:30:37.711-04:00Some data: Israeli experience shows a 94% reducti...Some data: Israeli experience shows a 94% reduction in chances of getting Covid, one week after second Pfizer shot.<br /><br />https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/03/09/israeli-study-offers-first-real-world-glimpse-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-action/<br /><br />Israel also found that between one in 3000 and one in 6000 men ages 16 to 24 who received the vaccine developed myrocarditis. But most cases were mild and resolved within a few weeks, which is typical for myocarditis.<br /><br />Of course, risks of side effects should be balanced with risks of death or other bad effects from the disease itself. Here’s some British data on mortality rates as a function of age…numbers are rates per 100,000 people:<br /><br />5-9 .1<br />10-19 .5<br />20-29 2.1<br />30-39 7.4<br />40-49 22.8<br />50-59 65.8<br />60-69 192<br />70-79 553<br /><br />To put these numbers into perspective, the most dangerous job in the US is logging, with 97.6 annual deaths per 100,000. So, if you’re 50-59, your chance of dying from Covid (so far) has been a little more than half your risk of working as a logger for a year (and a little more than working as a roofer, where the rate is 51.5) Also big differences by sex and (of course) by health condition.<br /><br />https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-reported-sars-cov-2-deaths-in-england/covid-19-confirmed-deaths-in-england-reportDavid Fosterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15464681514800720063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-75745321796077418772021-08-04T00:37:00.433-04:002021-08-04T00:37:00.433-04:00I see it like the new '''flu''...I see it like the new '''flu''' ,maybe more dangerous, I don't know... But it is here to stay,much like other bugs.Of course more variations to come. and so it goes. Do what floats your boat best for you.<br />Have a good one!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17166201841261085745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-45552333523479539432021-08-03T22:38:36.573-04:002021-08-03T22:38:36.573-04:00I've been pro-vax from the start; I liked ever...I've been pro-vax from the start; I liked everything I read about it and found the criticisms of both its effective mechanism and the safety trials unconvincing. But that's for me. It's not for me to say how others should evaluate the balance of risk between vaccination and exposure to the virus. I confine myself to stating the facts I believe to be true about both, and respect the right of others to make up their own minds. Do I wish we had 100% vaccination and a lower rate of transmission? Yes. That's the breaks. I don't get to have a world in which everything is better because everyone has to do what I say.<br /><br />I was perhaps more concerned early in the pandemic than many people I was in contact with; the overwhelmed hospitals in Italy worried me a great deal. When the crisis hit here, I had initial fears about hospital overload, which abated after a few months, though I continue to keep a nervous eye on the point.<br /><br />The reporting on effective treatments has been atrocious. Many sources of information on that score have permanently lost my confidence. To this day almost no one seems to know about the monoclonal antibody treatments, which aren't even controversial. It's bizarre. Ditto the reporting on the effectiveness of masks and social distancing, and particularly mandatory mask and lockdown policies. There has been way too much insistence that treatments must not work because that would send a bad message (about safety or politics), or masks/lockdowns must work, because otherwise you're a bad person who wants others to get sick. It's ignorant and it's been used to degrade society; I'm unlikely ever to be reconciled to it.<br /><br />Nevertheless, I continue, obviously, to support the right of people to wear all the masks they like of whatever material they choose, and to stay home until they feel safe. I myself largely stayed home for quite some time, without feeling the need to force others to stay home or close their businesses. It was a shame to see so many people fail to come to grips with the possibility that they could very well control their own behavior without needing (or deserving) so much control over the behavior of others in areas where the data is not very clear. I closed my ears to most criticism on this subject many months ago. When data is murky, the default position should be to respect the choices of others, even if we fear that makes life more dangerous.Texan99https://www.blogger.com/profile/10479561573903660086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-75298060692091594382021-08-03T20:51:50.910-04:002021-08-03T20:51:50.910-04:00David Foster - excellent points, as is usual for y...David Foster - excellent points, as is usual for you.<br /><br />I don't know if I would go 99.9%, but I essentially agree that if this wer stil the Trump Vaccine the response would be at least somewhat different. Kamala Harris and Joe Biden both said they wouldn't trust any vaccine that came out under the Trump Administration until a couple of days after the election, at which point they were suddenly receptive, and by Inauguration Day were chastising all those evil Trump supporters who were too stupid to get the vaccine and were <i>endangering us all!</i> So it is not merely cynical and biased speculation on your part. There is evidence. https://twitter.com/DrewHolden360/status/1325953672304611330 Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-33111484498166820552021-08-03T19:57:20.953-04:002021-08-03T19:57:20.953-04:00Brad & Grim: I was not aware of how the J&...Brad & Grim: I was not aware of how the J&J vaccine was different. Thanks for enlightening me!<br /><br />Brad: The two people (one of them an adult) who tested positive had not been vaccinated. And it was 3 hours, close family, lots of hugging and kissing, laughing and all sitting close together. I didn't mean to make any claims about shedding the virus after vaccination. Donna B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16771075314473811594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-50028025438529153692021-08-03T19:08:00.377-04:002021-08-03T19:08:00.377-04:00@Donna B, What @Grim said about the DNA vaccines. ...@Donna B, What @Grim said about the DNA vaccines. J&J uses DNA to insert and create the mRNA that creates the spike protein expression on our own cells. Hence my concern of potential autoimmune issues in the future. I am still waiting for the Novovax vaccine that uses more traditional methods.<br /><br />Regarding your masking comments, I DO understand how masks work. In controlled settings and especially against droplet exchange, they are very effective. In real world use against a virus mostly passed by aerosol... not so much. So I hear the argument that SOME mitigation may warrant masking, but how much is the mitigation? Apparently some argue that ANY is enough to require masks. Fair enough, wear all the masks you want and at least you'll SOME protection.<br /><br />I'm not sure your anecdotal account of vaccine efficacy merits comment. I believe the vaccines do reduce shedding of the virus since the symptoms are so reduced. How much and now with the transmissibility of the Delta, hard to say. <br /><br />My real point of my previous comment was that despite lots of surety by those on FB, the media, and, well, blog commenters, I think everyone knows less than they think about SARS-coV2 and some humility on both sides of the many issues is appropriate.Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00272207550344418426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-49209398911097916592021-08-03T19:00:05.738-04:002021-08-03T19:00:05.738-04:00A few points..
1--from data I've reviewed, th...A few points..<br /><br />1--from data I've reviewed, the risks of *not taking* the vaccines exceed considerably the risks of taking the vaccines, at least for people of 18 and older. (For those younger, may be better to avoid in most cases unless there are specific individual medical factors arguing in favor) In addition to the direct benefits to the person taking the vaccine, there is an indirect benefit in that you are less likely to propagate the virus to others.<br /><br />2--I notice quite a few people who have been strong Trump supporters but who seem to feel that the vaccine is something imposed on us by Fauci, Gates, Pfizer, etc. Trump is not a naive guy and I doubt that he's allowing himself to be manipulated on this.<br /><br />It should be clearly understood: we have the vaccines now because of Trump and the initiatives he put in place. Absent Trump, we would be looking at a vaccine something between mid-2022 and the Twelfth of Never,y and the consequence would be hundreds of thousands of additional deaths and the complete shredding of the economy. (But when(if) we did get the vaccine, it would have the formal FDA seal of approval)<br /><br />I also note note that conservatives/libertarians have usually *objected* to long government approval processes, including new drug approvals at the FDA.<br /><br />3--public health communication has been terrible, and this includes Fauci. Not nearly enough education/persusasion/presentation of data; way too much communication of the respect-mah-authoriteh type. A communication program that involved more actual science, adherence to truth, and professional marketing methods would have been far more effective than what has actually been done.<br /><br />4--if Trump were still in office, I'm 99.9% confident that the Democrats would be doing everything they could to undercut vaccine acceptance.<br /><br />5--the term 'denialism' is being used way too broadly these days. It is 'borrowed' from Holocaust denialism, which is the refusal to credit the truth of a well-documented historical event. Something quite different from refusal to credit climate change results based on extremely complex and not-well-validated mathematical models, or even refusal to accept the safety/efficacy of vaccines, based on statistical analyses which are not nearly and complex as the climate models, but are still something quite different from direct documentary evidence by witnesses.<br /><br />Possibly more later if I have time.<br />David Fosterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15464681514800720063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-29650321219501705082021-08-03T14:22:09.760-04:002021-08-03T14:22:09.760-04:00@Donna B: Not to speak for Brad, but the Johnson &...@Donna B: Not to speak for Brad, but the Johnson & Johnson vax uses DNA instead of mRNA to deliver its payload of data. I think some of the foreign-approved ones do too, but I didn’t study those because they were not an option for me. <br /><br />https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/how-the-johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-worksGrimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-86236773281723158762021-08-03T08:17:31.437-04:002021-08-03T08:17:31.437-04:00@ AVI - I've been tempted to delete my FB acco...@ AVI - I've been tempted to delete my FB account, but the fact is that it is the primary way I keep in touch with so many relatives -- idiots or not, I am still fond of most of them. I have blocked a few, unfriended a few, and unfollowed others. Private groups with limited membership are why I don't delete it altogether. Although I wonder how private those are, they don't seem to generate subject related ads. Donna B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16771075314473811594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-36889533333207540472021-08-03T07:53:00.498-04:002021-08-03T07:53:00.498-04:00@ Donna B - you have provided excellent evidence t...@ Donna B - you have provided excellent evidence that my decision to erase my FB account forever was the correct one. My wife is still on, but seems to have few people talking any politics at all. She has garden group, birdwatching group, the local free-or-cheap group, and friends from church with family and travel pictures. My experience was less pleasant.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-2578127495509625612021-08-03T07:09:39.434-04:002021-08-03T07:09:39.434-04:00@brad - "What will be the long term efficacy ...@brad - "What will be the long term efficacy and safety of the mRNA/DNA vaccines?" <br /><br />I am unaware of any "DNA vaccines". Please provide some background/evidence there? I am aware of scientifically illiterate morons thinking that an mRNA vaccine will alter their DNA and mostly I wanted to respond "in your case that could be a positive outcome". I didn't because my daughters told me to be 'nice' and consider that he's my cousin. Second cousin, once removed... but still. <br /><br />Have you noticed on Facebook the question "Do you actually know anyone who has had Covid?" I'm not sure whether the intent is to prove it's not widespread or that it is. I only see it because so many of my relatives respond "yes". One of my beloved aunts died of it - she helped my Mama raise me and we were always close. She probably would not have got the vaccine, but she died before it was available. <br /><br />Masks - it's extremely annoying that those who don't want to wear a mask don't understand how masks can help. They are "correct" that wearing a mask won't necessarily keep them from getting Covid. What they don't understand is that it requires the majority of the population to wear masks -- it's this cooperative agreement they can't understand. <br /><br />As for vaccine effectiveness, I was in close contact for over 3 hours with two people who subsequently tested positive for Covid. One of them had very mild symptoms, the other more severe but nowhere near requiring hospitalization. There were 5 of us in that group -- two vaccinated, one too young to be vaccinated (tested positive). The two vaccinated individuals tested neg as did the teenager who "has never been sick a day in her life". This teenager is getting the vaccine as soon as the quarantine is up. <br /><br />I see a lot "common sense" nonsense about Covid. This is mostly on Facebook and it's mostly from my relatives who are 3/4 of my Facebook friends. These relatives range from progressive to classic liberals to intelligent conservatives to idiots on both political spectrums. I think I've persuaded at least one hesitant one to get vaccinated. The ones who got vaccinated without persuasion don't post much. I can "assume" that most are vaccinated.<br /><br />Donna B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16771075314473811594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-59918337739482373462021-08-02T13:47:34.544-04:002021-08-02T13:47:34.544-04:00@ Brad - i think it depends on what you mean by &q...@ Brad - i think it depends on what you mean by "know." We know little with absolute certainty, but we know a lot of what is highly probably. Masks provide some benefit when combined with other measures like distancing and air exchange. Standalone, not much. Lockdown strategies are very effective, the stricter the better - which is what makes it impossible, because I don't think anyone wants Wuhan apartment complex level of shutdown or surveillance state level of contact tracing. Those work, but they are nightmarish. So we are already trading off death with rights, and willingly. <br /><br />Long term health effects of the shutdowns...I am not seeing how they would adversely affect heart or lung conditions, cancer. They might affect exercise and eating, therefore obesity, but because the duration is not years that should be small. Mental health effects are likely more from job loss than staying home. There is increased drug use. I don't see long-term developmental effects as likely, and dying grandparents would be more traumatic (the younger, the worse, generally). We also don't know the long-term effects of the virus, but some of those look bad, compromising lung and heart function, and worrisome neurological effects. Just as an estimate, it's looking like lockdowns and vaccines have a high hill to climb to be worse.<br /><br />The is a generalised discouragement from economic downturn, and while that is hard to measure, I think it may be real. It will affect a lot of people at the margins of their decisions - their willingness to risk a new business or job or make other changes. <br /><br />We have now given the vaccines millions of times and know a great deal. I don't see evidence of long-term risk that is rising above any other technology. Worse than the anxiety of social media? Worse than the various brain stimulations? Possibly, but there are no signs.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-45276687246846866922021-08-02T13:12:56.464-04:002021-08-02T13:12:56.464-04:00I had an interesting conversation yesterday with a...I had an interesting conversation yesterday with a career CDC guy from Atlanta, now retired. He shakes his head at the way the pandemic has been handled. His most interesting comment went something like this:<br /><br /><i>The CDC used to have a very different kind of mission standard. When Everett Koop was surgeon general for instance, everybody understood that this was a guy who had operated extensively in pediatrics, who understood health crises, who practiced medicine for a living and actually administered patients. Here he was, in the Vice Admiral uniform (Public Health Service Commissioned Corps). He commanded trust and respect and was firm on his positions for things like tobacco use, AIDS and so forth. The CDC was an agency with seasoned, experienced medical professionals (many of them ex-military) that had a good collaborative relationship with the OSG on promoting public health issues and investigations.<br /><br />But nowadays, the CDC cannot effectively compete for experienced people like this. A medical doctor goes through 4 years of college, 4 years of med school, then residency, then specialization if they want it. The residency selection process is quite a bit like the draft - you put down your preferences, you pay your way to interviews, and then the day comes with all the candidates in one room, and they hand you an envelope that tells you where you're going for your residency. When they become available for hire by a government agency like the CDC, they've got $3-400,000 worth of debt they're facing that must be paid off, which takes them years. The medical industry is structured for this. The CDC, as a consequence, ends up with medically-trained statisticians instead of seasoned health care professionals - and it shows.</i><br /><br />Aggiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11089648434324058300noreply@blogger.com