tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post186913920479087900..comments2024-03-27T03:19:11.216-04:00Comments on Assistant Village Idiot: Death NumbersAssistant Village Idiothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-23642744232675886282022-01-01T21:09:00.010-05:002022-01-01T21:09:00.010-05:00Thank you.Thank you.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-65829936118476768982022-01-01T17:46:58.175-05:002022-01-01T17:46:58.175-05:00AVI, I used to come here a lot and this post and y...AVI, I used to come here a lot and this post and your responses reminded me why I have avoided you recently. Not because you have a different view than I do about some aspects of covid. I can get that on any media outlet most anywhere, Rather, it's because of how angry you are at those who disagree. I know you are a thoughtful man and a reasonable man and generally a respectful man and this is just a view from a reader that respects you.Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00272207550344418426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-49488807953330426252021-12-28T16:14:52.146-05:002021-12-28T16:14:52.146-05:00It just plain boggles my mind that anyone would co...It just plain boggles my mind that anyone would consider politics informative when making medical/health care decisions. <br /><br />I've noticed that click-bait headlines are now being phrased according to "data" instead of "scientists" or "science". Not that I trusted "data" all that much before...Donna B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16771075314473811594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-26358807912518018712021-12-27T16:35:50.136-05:002021-12-27T16:35:50.136-05:00It is nearly meaningless, yes. Most drivers have ...It is nearly meaningless, yes. Most drivers have fallen asleep at the wheel momentarily and not died from it, and more than once. That doesn't make it not dangerous. Same also with auto accidents in general. There are many accidents every year, few die from them. It doesn't mean we shouldn't wear seat belts or regard them as unimportant.<br /><br />An interesting anecdote: the security guys at church have volunteered to come in armed and pay attention to a dozen little signs, having been trained to. Also, they have a clear idea of what to do in the case of minor and major emergencies. But this is NH, and I don't think we have had a church shooting ever. It is a low probability. But I suppose it can go so badly in the rare instances where this does go wrong that it is worth preparing for. Yet these guys are among our most suspicious of masks, distancing, etc, and most likely to regard covid protocols as overreaction. But aren't those the same things, preparing heavily for a rare event because it could be catastrophic? I only note the irony here, as arguments can be made risk-benefit about both. One of their favorite people in the congregation who would get together with them after service every week was the special forces guy I mentioned months ago, who died from covid. <br /><br />It is these ironies that tell me that other factors, beyond simple judicious evaluation of the data are what are really driving many supposed scientific and political considerations. If you tell me that this applies to all sides of this in the discussion, I shall not disagree in the slightest. My point is that we need to look at where our likely downfalls are and adjust accordingly.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-22566975192031945732021-12-27T16:09:37.216-05:002021-12-27T16:09:37.216-05:00Check out the graphs on this site for: United Stat...Check out the graphs on this site for: United States, ages 50-64. It shows death rates from Covid among unvaccinated as running about 12 per 100K population for each of the 10 weeks at the highest portion of the chart, or 120/100K for that whole period. I didn't add up the area under the entire graph, but it will probably come in at around 200/100K for the total year 2021.<br /><br />https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination<br /><br />For comparison, the most dangerous job in the United States is logging, with 111 deaths per 100K workers. So being unvaxxed in the 50-59 age range exposed you to a Covid death likelihood in 2021 exceeding that of working as a logger for that year.<br /><br />It is pretty meaningless to look at Covid statistics without stratifying by age, kind of like talking about the risks of aviation without specifying whether we're talking about a scheduled airliner or Navy carrier operations or working as a test pilot of newly-designed aircraft.David Fosterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15464681514800720063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-43489033384289277082021-12-27T11:07:47.289-05:002021-12-27T11:07:47.289-05:00Gavin Longmuir: At the same time, look left and ri...<b>Gavin Longmuir</b>: <i>At the same time, look left and right at the 997 people out of 1,000 who are unaffected or survive Covid </i><br /><br />That is probably low. Some countries have population fatality rates over 0.4% with people still becoming infected, implying an infection fatality rate higher than that. Of course, much depends on demographics and quality of medical care, and when the infections occurred. A lot of people died early in the pandemic that might not have died later on. Nor is the pandemic over yet, though there are indications that Omicron may inoculate the remaining unvaccinated population. <br /><br />Hospitalizations are considerably higher than that. Mortality in ICU improved over time, but using your mortality rate of 0.3%, and an ICU survival of 50%, that means an additional 0.3% of people had a very serious case of COVID but survived. For each person who dies or ends up in ICU, there is a family who was affected. Over a 100,000 children in the U.S. lost a caretaker, for instance. <br /><br />As Jonathan points out, there is a large number who have likely been spared by vaccines from serious illness and death.Zachrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16081260898264733380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-84340336130989367732021-12-27T09:51:55.418-05:002021-12-27T09:51:55.418-05:00"we need to balance the good that can be done..."we need to balance the good that can be done for the 3 out of 1,000 with the harm that is being caused to the 997 out of 1,000 by governmental over-reaction"<br /><br />It is not the 3 out of 1000 who benefit. It is the much larger number who have likely been spared by vaccines from serious illness and in some cases death.Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08111391338812214765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-64946845910223714142021-12-26T15:31:42.641-05:002021-12-26T15:31:42.641-05:00AVI: "I imagine there were some who thought ...AVI: <i>"I imagine there were some who thought it made them completely bulletproof, but I never met any, in person or online."</i><br /><br />You should get out more, AVI.<br /><br />Of course the sickness or death of any individual can be heart-breaking. If your work places you where you are focused on the 3 in 1,000 who will die from Covid, it must be tough. Thank you for doing it.<br /><br />At the same time, look left and right at the 997 people out of 1,000 who are unaffected or survive Covid, but whose lives are being upended by the Lock Downs; non-Covid sick whose medical treatment is being delayed; non-government workers who lose their jobs; school kids and college students who lose precious years of education and social activities; businesses which go bankrupt, leaving the owners in a mess and the communities which depended on them in the lurch. <br /><br />The CovidScam refers to excessive & inappropriate government response to a real illness which is comparable to a bad outbreak of flu. The CovidScam is doing unnecessary long-term medical, social, and economic harm to very large numbers of people. This is the real world -- we need to balance the good that can be done for the 3 out of 1,000 with the harm that is being caused to the 997 out of 1,000 by governmental over-reaction.<br /><br />As for the over-reaction, initially that was understandable & appropriate, given the first images from China of well-dressed working-age men collapsed in the street. Genuinely scary! If the fact that such images have never been repeated, not in China and not anywhere else in the world, does not make one think "scam" ... then one really ought to get out more!<br /><br />All the best for 2022. Stay safe!Gavin Longmuirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15955888612464168346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-80843581166594028082021-12-25T09:09:09.624-05:002021-12-25T09:09:09.624-05:00I now know with even more certainty, because your ...I now know with even more certainty, because your answers confirm it. People who have friends working in ICUs - or pretty much anywhere in a hospital or clinic - don't use phrases like covidscam.<br /><br />I have talked to many who have received the vaccine, not all of whom believed Fauci and the elite media, and some were suspicious at first. They were well aware of the various effectiveness rates between different versions. They knew that it was less effective against Delta, though not many knew the numbers. In my circle, at least, it was in no way considered it something buried in the fine print. I imagine there were some who thought it made them completely bulletproof, but I never met any, in person or online. So your "great majority" and your "never" in the following paragraph are simply untrue. You have made up who your opponents are, and reinforced your belief with confirmation bias from curated reports in some media. <br /><br />And you did not answer much. I am done. you may have the last word if you wish.<br />Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-58484624108896018492021-12-24T21:11:33.648-05:002021-12-24T21:11:33.648-05:00AVI: "You don't know any of those people,...AVI: <i>"You don't know any of those people, and you don't care ..."</i><br /><br />You know an awful lot about me, apparently. How do you know what you claim to know? Is it possible you are misinformed?<br /><br />While you correctly point out that the CDC fine print acknowledged that the injectants were not 100% effective, talk to the people who lined up and took the shot; the great majority thought they were getting protection, because they listened to Fauci and the media. Go ahead, talk to them.<br /><br />Almost any action we human beings take in most spheres have costs as well as benefits. We all know this, and yet the proponents of the Lock Downs never acknowledge it. Reasonable people might make a case that the benefits of the Lock Downs exceed the costs, but that is not what the proponents of the CovidScam do. Why are they afraid to look at the whole picture?<br /><br />Have a Happy Christmas!Gavin Longmuirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15955888612464168346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-52555071669188059482021-12-24T15:16:29.607-05:002021-12-24T15:16:29.607-05:00It is thee who are rewriting history. Even the CDC...It is thee who are rewriting history. Even the CDC never told you the vaccine was more than 94%, and when Delta came, they told you it was less than that, closer to 70%. You have an imaginary definition of what is a real vaccine. Deal with reality.<br /><br />We know how many people are hospitalised and how many have died. You are the one being "lawyerly" by asserting that fuzziness around the other definitions is HUGE! "Cases!" Oh my! Oh my! Death is death. Post-viral syndrome is a horrible outcome. Neurological damage sucks. Having your family and friends wonder if you are going to survive has meaning. I have yet to hear you even acknowledge that such things are real. Man up. Deal with pros and cons, risks and benefits. While there are chicken littles who get the vapors about maskign, they don't come here, so I don't kick them. What I see, here at my site and the ones I visit, are self-righteous dullards on the other side. So I kick that side because they are simply dangerous.<br /><br />I keep encouraging people to speak to the people they know who work in ERs and ICUs and getting their opinion, because I have learned from experience that they will listen to no one else other than a live person they trust before them. Nor will you. You don't know <i>any</i> of those people, and you don't care, because you can curate who you listen to, who will tell you what you want to hear. You don't know what you don't know. You are not merely nescient about some scraps of data, you have a mind-set that prevents thinking. You have an incomplete data set and won't admit it, and that is the central problem.<br /><br />Give it a try Gavin. Give evidence that you have looked at alternative views and weighed pros and cons, and tried to understand why people might be concerned and what some possible weaknesses are to your case and answer them. Steelman your case instead of strawmanning it. Let's see what you've got. Because thus far, it's just repeating crap I can read on a dozen sites that don't admit discussion.<br /><br />As for not getting treatment for "genuine" ailments, there <i>are</i> now surgeries that are being postponed in the last six months (varying by location) because hospitals are filling up with people who can't breathe. Which seems to be a legitimate concern to me. You are somehow redefining those "not breathing" people as a problem of covid overestimation rather than being a legitimate disease? None of your friends and relatives, I guess. Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-83649167926390666502021-12-24T13:34:37.051-05:002021-12-24T13:34:37.051-05:00"Distancing, vaccination, and even masking (s...<i>"Distancing, vaccination, and even masking (somewhat) reduce your risk. No one ever promised you otherwise ..."</i><br /><br />That seems like a lawyerly attempt to rewrite history. Most of the people who lined up for the injectant thought they were getting a genuine vaccine -- something akin to the polio vaccine, which would fire up their immune system such that they would not catch the disease and would not be able to spread the disease. Now the proponents of the injectant tell us to read the fine print!<br /><br />The most important information is still left deliberately obscure. With the Orwellian redefinition of "case", we do not know how many of those breathlessly-reported "cases" refer to healthy asymptomatic individuals. Nor do we know the real-world False Positive rate. But we do know that very few of those supposed "cases" require hospitalization, and even fewer of them result in death.<br /><br />In the meantime, we do know that people are dying unnecessarily due to the CovidScam because they are not getting prompt treatment for genuine ailments -- cancer, heart disease, stroke. And we know that families and communities are suffering significant harm from the negative economic & social effects of the CovidScam Lock Downs.<br /><br />History will not look kindly on those who engineered this inappropriate over-reaction to a disease comparable to a bad flu outbreak.Gavin Longmuirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15955888612464168346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-13329691289735323302021-12-24T11:20:45.663-05:002021-12-24T11:20:45.663-05:00Sure. Hurricane Donald is definitely coming in 202...Sure. Hurricane Donald is definitely coming in 2024. Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-45274348515269072752021-12-24T08:19:09.925-05:002021-12-24T08:19:09.925-05:00Yeah, if it turns out to be an overall boon he may...Yeah, if it turns out to be an overall boon he may wish they hadn't bothered, because of the good press it would have given him. I suppose they did the right thing, as fevered minds might indeed think it was named after him, but it does seem a bit much to be that oversensitive. Would they change a long-arranged hurricane name because it turned out to be the first name of a major political candidate in an election year?Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19305198.post-75428910853036504072021-12-24T00:42:57.054-05:002021-12-24T00:42:57.054-05:00It’s really the Xi variant by Greek letters, but t...It’s really the Xi variant by Greek letters, but that was decided to be impolite or undiplomatic. Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07543082562999855432noreply@blogger.com