There have been fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic this year. There are none on the horizon. Six to ten hurricanes were predicted; there has been one. But because we are only halfway through the season, the NOAA assures us that we are still in the range of the predictions. I don't know enough about hurricane prediction to say they are wrong in that. I will say that it sounds wrong.
Weather varies.
Looking at the numbers and simplifying them a bit you would expect 5 hurricanes in each half of the season to get to the upper estimate of 10 so a very quiet first half (1) plus a normally active second half (5) would get you to the lower estimate of 6 for the year. I sort of skimmed the article and it did seem to be an extended explanation there is no reason to assume a certain weather pattern won't change abruptly just because it has been in place for a while.
ReplyDeleteThere is a low pressure system that has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
ReplyDeleteI find the NOAA hurricane page very helpful in hurricane season.
The latter half of September is statistically the busiest, most intense part of the season.
ReplyDeleteAllow me to take a moment to express my gratitude, after last year, for the lack of hurricanes this year.
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